CARLISLE

2:45 BLACKWELL NOVICES' HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+,0-110) 2m1f

SINATAS 11-12 ~ Still a maiden after 5 runs but he has been running well over hurdles. He disappointed over 2½ miles last time out so chances are he didn’t stay but his run in a handicap over the minimum trip behind Prince Linamix puts him in with a serious chance.

MARUFO 11-8 ~ Three very encouraging runs over hurdles puts the son of Presenting in with a serious chance in this novice handicap.  He fell when travelling well on his first start and failed to get home over 2½ miles in the testing ground at Haydock next time. This season he made his seasonal reappearance at Warwick and he ran an encouraging race. He looked to have improved on his early promise but clearly in need of the run he weakening out of it at the last. All three runs had been in soft ground over 2½ miles but he’s been running as if a step down in trip should suit and there is little to suggest he won’t handle this better ground. His maiden at Warwick has worked out very well and considering that he ran better than the bare form he looks very nicely handicapped on a mark of 105 for his first run in a handicap. On form he is the one they all have to beat and he has plenty of scope for further improvement.

TWELVE PACES 11-5 ~ Some 22lbs lower over hurdles than he is over fences but the larger obstacles have been the making of the Double Trigger gelding. So he is far from certain to transfer his form from two seasons ago over fences back over hurdles despite being ‘thrown in’ on the handicap. He also has to bounce back from being pulled up on his last two runs and this will be his first run for more than a year. So he has to prove his fitness, form and whether he can transfer his chase form over hurdles. Hope comes with a change of yards and maybe Peter Monteith has found the key to the 7yo. However as a betting proposition he has too many questions to answer at present and is best watched.

BIJOU DAN 11-3 ~ Best performance over hurdles came last time out in a novice handicap at Ayr. Carrying top weight he finished 4th but it was a poor event and given his previous efforts he doesn’t have an encouraging profile. Serious doubt that stepped up in class that he can find the necessary improvement needed to get competitive.

FISTRAL 11-2 ~ Poor on the flat he struggled in a couple of banded races but luckily for connections jumping has proven to be the making of the Piccolo gelding. Bred to be a sprinter on the flat it would be sensible to keep the horse at the minimum trip over jumps. He struggled on his first two runs over hurdles but that was unsurprising given his breeding and the conditions. An easier track and better ground at Doncaster brought around decent improvement. He finished 2nd behind Little Bob in a novice handicap hurdle and the form looks good as the front two pulled clear. Little Bob has since run a good race under his penalty in a competitive handicap hurdle so little to suggest Fistral can’t follow up. The stiffer track and a 5lbs hike in the ratings won’t help but he is still respected.

BREAKWATER HOUSE 11-2 ~ The 6yo geldings best form has come in testing ground so todays faster ground isn’t likely to suit. His first run in handicap should bring around some improvement but on form lines though Blackpool Billy he doesn’t look well handicapped with Scuzme.

MINI MINISTREL 11-2 ~ She broke her maiden tag when stepped down in trip at Hexham in a small field conditional jockey handicap. In that race she had a serious advantage though with her more experienced jockey and the fact that she had confirmed stamina for the testing conditions. She built on that effort though when next seen out in a similar race at Newcastle over 2m6f. She finished 2nd but was staying on at the finish. 11lbs higher in the handicap than when last winning over 2 miles she has to improve again to win and this faster ground looks unlikely to suit over the minimum trip.

HIGH STAND LAD 11-1 ~ This 6yo gelding has been running in far better races than this recently. The step down in class means he has to be respected after his fine run from out of the handicap in a competitive race at Newcastle earlier in the season. His run in a Graded race at Kelso is easily forgiven given the class of opposition and its better to focus on his runs at Newcastle. He finished 2nd over 2½ miles in a conditional jockeys handicap but given that was his first run for months he could be expected to improve on that effort and he did. He is 6lbs lower than when finishing 9th in that competitive 2 mile handicap and against this class he has a serious chance.

DIAVOLERIA 10-8 ~ She finished well behind a decent pair of mares at Newcastle and then on her first run in handicap company at Ludlow she ran on for 3rd. That wasn’t a particularly strong handicap for the class and her overall profile gives the impression she isn’t capable of winning a race such as this although she is sure to run her race.

SCUZME 10-7 ~ Only form of note came at Hexham where the 5yo son of Xaar finished 2nd to Blackpool Billy. Could be that the gelding improved for the easy lead but that is open to conjecture but there is little to say where else the improvement came form. That was good form though as both Blackpool Billy and Battle Stations have solid form in their own right. Scuzme though has since disappointed when pulled up at Ayr so although clearly able on a going day he doesn’t represent a solid betting proposition and is unlikely to get a soft lead.

SOUL ANGEL 10-1 ~ Showed improved form in his last two runs and finished 2nd in the race in which Scuzme pulled up last time out. The 4yo reversed placing with Top Mark in that race after he had previously finished 3rd behind him over the same course and distance. No reason to think that the juvenile hasn’t stopped improving but all his best form has been in testing ground at Ayr. So away from his favoured track and on faster ground this race represents a different challenge. The form of those Ayr runs isn’t great so chances are it won’t transfer that well away from the Scottish track. However he can’t be ruled out at the bottom of the handicap if he is still progressing and given that he is young and lightly raced there is no reason to think he hasn’t.

BAMBY 10-0 ~ Only form of note came last summer when winning a seller but that was the 8yo mares first run for Sue Smith. She has only run once since when making her seasonal reappearance in a weak handicap at Newcastle a little more than a week ago. She pulled too hard for her own good on that occasion which is a worry but off her feather weight she has plenty of room for improvement. Dropped in trip she may enjoy going slightly faster and so won’t pull as much and her yard are capable of improving her considerably on what she has shown so far in her short career.

SQUARE DEALER 10-0 ~ 4lbs out of the handicap and no win in 14 starts over timber but although a fair effort at Warwick last time out she has ground to make up on fellow lightweight Bamby. The 7yo gelding looks decidedly poor and another no show looks highly likely.

CONCLUSION

Shortlist includes Sinatas, Marufo, Fistral, High Stand Lad, Soul Angel and Bamby.

Sinatas has to bounce back from a poor effort last time out and his best form has all been on testing ground. Soul Angel is another horse whose been racing on heavy ground at Ayr and the latter also applied to him. Although at the bottom of the handicap his form doesn’t look as good as those around him and although progressive he is taken on as a result. Bamby is also at the foot of the handicap but he could well improve given he is unexposed for his new connections and he showed improve form for Sue Smith on her only run for that yard last season. Of those at the head of the handicap Fistral and High Stand Lad are hard to oppose. However the former is only a juvenile and is 5lbs higher than when 2nd last time out. That is also the only form he has shown over hurdles so there are safer options. The latter High Stand Lad might prefer further than 2 miles and could be vulnerable to the very unexposed Marufo.
Marufo has solid form in a couple of maidens and a novice race which puts him into contention. He also looks like he has plenty of scope for further improvement and the step down in trip should suit. The 6yo should be fitter for his run last time out and stepped into handicap company for the first time he could be a blot on the handicap.

1pt WIN – MARUFO @ 9/1

RESULT

MARUFO 9th = -1pt