NEWBURY

3:50 LORD WEINSTOCK MEMORIAL STAKES (REGISTERED AS THE BALLYMACOLL STUD STAKES) (LISTED RACE) (FILLIES) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m2f

ANNIE STAKES 8-12 ~ Jane Chapple-Hyams filly showed some decent form as a juvenile, including when finishing runner-up in a 2yo fillies race at the Breeders Cup. Sensible not to get overly excited about a placed effort at the Breeders Cup and focus more on the fillies 3rd in the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes at Newmarket. As a 2yo she looked short of top class and in two runs as a 3yo that doesn’t look to have changed. Her reappearance in soft ground can be forgiven as the American bred has shown a preference for decent ground and she was sure to be in need of the run. Next time out at Goodwood and stepped up to todays trip for the first time she bounced back to form in the Listed Height of Fashion Stakes. She finished runner-up behind the run away winner Michita who looked a class above the rest of her rivals that day and a win in Group company seems only a formality. Take the John Gosden filly out of the race and Annie Stakes was the best filly in the race. Apart from the winner it was a standard Listed class field so back in the same company Annie Stakes has to be respected. The trip and ground should be ideal so she looks sure to run her race. However she again looks vulnerable to any potential improvers and a place looks the best connections can hope for.

BRAMAPUTRA 8-12 ~ Unraced last season as a 2yo but during three runs this season the daughter of Choisir has looked a progressive filly to watch out for. After a fine debut performance at Newbury she finished runner-up behind Rosaleen in an Ascot conditions race. Although the winner bombed next time out at Goodwood in the Listed Height Of Fashion Stakes the front two pulled 5 lengths clear of the 3rd Kay Es Jay who is a good benchmark and a high nineties rated performer. She finally got off the mark when winning a Haydock maiden from Brian Meehans colt Navajo Joe. She only beat him a length but the front two pulled clear and both look above average performers. Her entry in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes might be tilting at windmills but it highlights the regard she is held in at home. However at this moment in time it might be asking too much for the filly to win a race such as this and rather the handicap route may prove more fruitful whilst the horse continues to progress. The trip though looks the biggest concern as on the sires side there is plenty of speed and a mile looks like it should be the limit. There is plenty of stamina through the dams parents and she has been running as if the step up to a mile and a quarter is worth a try. Overall the picture isn’t clear so combined with the doubt about the fillies class in this race she is passed over.

BURN THE BREEZE 8-12 ~ One filly who will have no qualms with the trip is Henry Cecils daughter of 2000 Derby 3rd Beat Hollow. She stepped up on her juvenile form to make a winning reappearance over course and distance in a hot Newbury maiden. The field was strung out with the front three pulling clear of the rest so the form initially had a strong look to it. The second Changing Skies and the third Arthur’s Girl have both franked the form since and have entries in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes. The former finished 3rd in the Listed Cheshire Oaks next time and the latter won next time out in a good looking maiden at Salisbury. So both look good fillies on the bare form but Burn The Breeze beat them both well. Next time out at the Chester May meeting she was stepped up to a 1½ miles in a competitive handicap. She ran well for along way before her effort flattened out towards the finish and judging by that effort 1¼ miles looks to be her optimum trip. Time may also prove that she was beaten by two top class performers in Allied Powers and Patkai. However with regard to Burn The Breeze the form of the Cheshire Oaks isn’t working out at all well and it raises doubts about the form of her maiden win. The impression is that she is short of Listed class and she’ll need to show considerable improvement to figure as the lowest rated filly in the line-up.

FLURE DE LEISE 8-12 ~ Has around 10 lengths to find on Melodramatic on the form of her maiden run at Nottingham. A mile was probably too short but it hints at the gulf in class the Viking Ruler filly has to bridge if she is going to be competitive. After her Nottingham run she managed to break her duck in a Ballinrobe auction maiden but the second has disappointed since so the form is no more than average. She faces a mammoth task to finish closer to first than last today and she is readily ruled out.

KOTSI 8-12 ~ Ed Vaughans filly was the best of these last season as a juvenile and after breaking her maiden she ran a massive race in the Group 2 Fashion May Hill Stakes behind Spacious. She stayed on well to come from last to second and it wasn’t a coincidence that her career best effort came when she had her favoured quick ground. Next time out in the Group 1 Fillies' Mile run at Ascot it was no disgrace to be well beaten by Listen in ground that wouldn’t have been ideal. That was her final run as a juvenile and she wasn’t seen out again till seen chasing home Clowance over course and distance in the Listed Swettenham Stud Fillies' Trial Stakes. She stayed on well at the finish and although well below the best of her 2yo form it was still an encouraging effort. The yard was in a slump at the time and the stables runners have almost all been in need of the run this season. The ground wouldn’t have been ideal and neither the steady pace. She is bred to be a middle distance horse and her run provided encouragement that she’ll make up into a decent middle distance filly this season. If the heavy rain stays away she’ll get her ground and with the yard in good form she is sure to improve considerably on her seasonal reappearance. She is the highest rated in the field and can rightly claim to be the class act in the field. Her seasonal reappearance has looked even better with Clowance finishing 4th in the Group 1 Oaks and Kotsi looks the filly they all have to beat.

MELODRAMATIC 8-12 ~ She made her debut in the Listed Washington Singer Stakes on her final and only run as a juvenile last season. She made an encouraging start to her career when finishing 4th in what was a decent event. It was an especially pleasing run given the yards runners a normally much better for a run. On that evidence she was installed a short price favourite for a Newmarket maiden on her seasonal reappearance. However she was beaten into second by Henry Candys Danae and on pieces of collateral form she has plenty of ground to find with Bramaputra. However Roger Charltons yard was under a cloud at the time and hadn’t had a winner. The stables runners have all been improving for the run and are in good form at the moment. Next time out at Nottingham she strode on well to destroy her maiden field and get off the mark on the third attempt. That wasn’t a great maiden but having beaten the 2nd Desert Chill by an easy 7 lengths she looked in a different league to her rivals that day. She recorded a faster time than Scuffle managed in the first division of the maiden and that rival has gone on to win a good handicap beating Sir Michael Stoutes Lindelaan, who apparently has been working well with Ask. Melodramatic could potentially be anything but Kotsi does raise the bar quite high in this grade and she’ll probably need to be a Group horse to win. The trip is also an unknown but the way she stayed on over a mile a Nottingham last time and with Saddler’s Wells as her sire the trip looks likely to be within her grasp. The worry is though that stepped up in class there won’t be much room for error with regard to stamina and her mare My Branch was a miler which raises doubts. However judging by her overall pedigree and how she has been staying on over a mile the trip looks likely to suit. It just remains to be seen how much improvement she has in her but she deserves her position at the head of the market and she has to be respected.

ROSA GRACE 8-12 ~ Improved steadily as a juvenile but didn’t look anything special and was beaten by Annie Stakes in the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes, albeit only by about half a length. She is bred to improve from 2-3 and she made an encouraging reappearance this season at Goodwood in the Listed Height of Fashion Stakes. The step up in trip definitely seemed to bring around improvement and she can be rated better than the bare form. She was forced to wait for a run and had to come around horses to mount a challenge. As her jockey was making the move did she didn’t get the clearest of runs but stayed on well to finish 3rd behind Michita and only a length behind the 2nd and todays rival Annie Stakes. Rosa Grace was conceding race fitness to the first two and with the benefit of that run she has a great chance of reversing for with Annie Stakes. The filly really seemed to thrive in the final two furlongs and the step up in trip definitely seemed to suit. Like Melodramatic there is plenty of stamina for this trip on her sires side and plenty of speed on her dams side but given how she ran at Goodwood this trip looks likely to be the making of Rae Guests 3yo filly. She looks a potential improver and in this class she has to be respected as a result and is high on the shortlist.

SILK AFFAIR 8-12 ~ Looked decidedly average before lining up in the Listed Cheshire Oaks at the Chester May meeting. Her chances for that race appeared to be reflected in her price of 50/1 but she finished 6th, only 6 lengths behind the eventual winner Sail. She has plenty to find with Burn The Breeze on that form but at the time it looked a very encouraging run. However the race has been subsequently been made to look a poor renewal and as a result it’s hard to get excited about her chances today.

CONCLUSION

The ground has eased somewhat from an initial showing but it should still be good racing ground that will prove fair for all concerned. There looks likely to be a decent pace on offer so only fillies that stay the trip will be involved at the business end.
Bramaputra and Melodramatic look risky betting propositions given the doubts about the pairs ability to see out the trip. Bramaputra has plenty of improvement to find as well but the tissue second favourite Melodramatic is a very interesting runner despite stamina doubts. She looks a filly with a future and is very unexposed. However this is a big step up in class and trip so there are plenty of unknowns which make her price unappealing.
Annie Stakes and Rosa Grace ran over todays trip at Goodwood last time so look sure to stay. Despite Annie Stakes beating Rosa Grace preference would be for the latter as she looks to have more improvement in her and was a little unlucky last time when the former got first run.
Burn The Breeze is another sure to stay the trip but she’ll need to improve to win today and a place looks the best connections can hope for but the yard are in fine nick so not without hope.
Preference though is for another filly that has run over todays trip before and got it well enough last time behind Clowance. She wouldn’t have been suited by the slow pace that day but despite this she still stayed on well at the finish. Middle distances should be her ball game on breeding and as the class act in the field she’ll be hard to beat if bouncing back to her best form, which she looks capable of doing in todays race.

1pt WIN – KOTSI @ 9/4

RESULT

KOTSI 8th = -1pt