WINDSOR

3:30 AT THE RACES HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (4yo+,0-85) 1m

ALFRESCO 9-4 ~ Showed improved form on the all weather this winter and he is currently rated 95 in that sphere, some 10lbs higher than he is on the turf. Still has to prove whether he is just as effective on the turf as his form last year suggested he isn’t. Considering the improvement he has shown for his new trainer though he could prove that to be all wrong. This is easier than any of his recent assignments on the all weather so he should appreciate the drop in class. However he needs everything to drop right and he is far from certain to go in the rain softened ground. So even if he proves just as good on the turf there are plenty of other questions he has to answer.

NOVIKOV 9-3 ~ Showed progressive form in a few maidens before he broke his own duck at Newmarket. That was a decent enough 3yo maiden given that it has produced 5 subsequent winners. The John Gosden gelding made his handicap debut at York where trying to give weight to William Haggas’ Mutajarred he was well beaten. The ground was very testing through which suited that rival perfectly. He has gone to prove his class by running well in several handicaps to earn a rating of 100 so Novikov was far from disgraced. Next time out the son of Danehill Dancer failed to really see out the extra two furlongs at Newbury so the return to a mile should suit him better. He looks capable of running well as this is the easiest handicap he has faced but he doesn’t look particularly well handicapped. With fitness a concern he will need to improve on what he showed last season to win but his trainer is more than capable of getting it out of this lightly raced 4yo.

NORTHERN JEM 9-2 ~ Very well regarded by his trainer who uttered those immortal words “he could be the best horse I’ve ever trained”. As a 2yo he finished 6th in a hot conditions race at Ascot. He wasn’t disgraced behind a number of very talented horses and he finished only ½ length behind Sakhee´s Secret. He hasn’t lived up to expectations but he hasn’t been the luckiest of horses and for the most part he has been racing on ground faster than he’d like. His best run came on soft ground at Folkestone when chasing home Monte Alto but the way he hung off the bend down the hill means he can be rated better than the bare form. The winner Monte Alto has made the form look very good and as he was receiving 5lbs from Northern Gem the runner-up rates as the best horse in the race. The Cumani horse now has a mark of 99 and has improved considerably since his Folkestone win where in truth he won a little cosily. So probably folly to think Northern Jem is that good but it still hints at the ability he possesses. His subsequent runs at Ripon and Chester can be forgiven as at the former he suffered bad interference and the latter is a track that was never going to suit the horse given his style of running. Placing horses is the name of the game in this business and it has to be said he has been very poorly placed. A galloping track in soft ground should be much more to his liking than Chester, Folkestone and Ripon on fast ground. Although Windsor isn’t exactly a galloping track it has a decent straight which the 4yo should have plenty of time to wind up to deliver his challenge. Also the ground appears to be turning in his favour and judging by a couple of runs, namely here last season, he should appreciate a drop in trip. He has run well fresh before and is bred to only get better with age. Connections were quoted as saying he was well handicapped on 85 when he ran in the Kleinwort Benson Stakes so on 2lbs lower today the same should apply. He has to be respected in this company but he is a quirky customer so things will need to go his way if he is to win.

RED SOMERSET 9-1 ~ Left Richard Hannon and joined his current trainer before last season. However he didn’t get off the mark until he had dropped 18lbs in the handicap but once he finally got his head in front he held his form well. He ended the season with a 5 length win at Nottingham where he didn’t come off the bridle. It wasn’t a great race for the grade though and he was probably the only horse to take out of the race. He has been risen 8lbs in the handicap though and he struggled off similar marks last season. He didn’t run a great race on his return at Doncaster when making his return a couple of weeks ago. He’s a versatile sort regarding ground so that isn’t an issue but he looks handicapped to his best so the 5yo will have to improve to win.

TWILIGHT STAR 8-13 ~ Former Godolphin 4yo who only managed to win a very weak maiden at Pontefract last season. The horse has clearly had problems though as he has devalued faster than a pink muscle car. Sold as a foal for 280,000 guineas he was bought off Godolphin at the end of last year for 18,000 guineas. He made his debut for his new connections on the all weather and he ran an encouraging race to finish 5th. At the weights that doesn’t leave him far off Alfresco on a form line through Dichoh. Obviously that rival has improved since he beat Dichoh in December but it was still an encouraging start for Twilight Star. He missed the break and had to work to get back into a position on the inside. There was a lot of barging in the race but when he tried to go up a gap his ground was taken by Dichoh and he had to snatch up so he can be rated far better than the bare form. He could prove to be well handicapped on a mark of 80 and as this will be only his four career start he has the scope to progress on what he has shown so far.

DEN’S GIFT 8-13 ~ Beat 2/9 favourite Baharah in a maiden when making his debut on the all weather in November. That rival has gone on to finish 2nd behind Medicine Path in a listed race on the all weather. Wise not to take that collateral form literally though but Den’s Gift won a handicap next time out and has been running consistently well on his higher mark. He’s a consistent performer who is sure to run his race but he looks a little high in the handicap at the moment. He ran an encouraging race back on the turf at Leicester and he is sure to go away from Windsor with his reputation intact. However the Clive Cox gelding may once again find another one or two too good in the final furlong.

ZAFONICAL STORM 8-11 ~ Won a listed race at the Curragh as a 2yo but he has shown nothing like that form since. He only managed to beat 3 horses home in 5 starts as a 3yo and managed to finish last on his previous run. The run before though held out some hope so he finished a close 4th, less than a length behind the winner. However the race was run at a crawl and the whole field finished in a bunch. Only hope for connections comes with a return to turf and soft ground. He was running in far tougher races than this last season so the drop in class should suit. However as a betting proposition any supporters would want a big price to tempt them into chancing that he returns to the form he showed two years ago.

RUDRY DRAGON 8-11 ~ Two of the colts’ best performances have come here at Windsor including when beating Docofthebay on his seasonal reappearance last year. Given the progression of that rival he probably wasn’t at his best that day as Rudry Dragon hasn’t lived up to the bare form. That was his only career win in fact and it looks as if the handicapper has his card marked after putting him up 7lbs. When he dropped him a couple of pounds he showed improved form but back up a few lb up he will need to improve if he is going to record his second career victory. He is a talented and consistent sort though so he is sure to run his race and be thereabouts but he may just be playing for a place.

LOOK SO 8-10 ~ Won a weak handicap on an evening card at Leicester but she could only beat what was in front of her. That was followed up with a 7th in a listed race for which she was raised into the 80s in the handicap. However pitched into a competitive handicap at HQ she was outclassed hinting also that she is probably plenty high enough in the handicap. Her run at Ayr was too bad to be true but she has dropped a couple of lbs in the handicap and this drop in class is another plus. However chances are she’ll need the run after 9 months off the track and she is still probably too high in the handicap. She also needs to improve on all known form so all in all the Ralph Beckett 4yo looks up against it here today.

TRANS SIBERIAN 8-9 ~ Paul Coles 4yo made his debut here at Windsor last season but he failed to stay the 1¼ miles on his debut. Dropped down in trip at Wolverhampton he improved to win his maiden in good style. He finished 3 lengths clear of View From The Top and Le Singe Noir but he was receiving 5lbs from those rivals who are both high 60s low 70s rated horses. So his mark of 76 looks on the high side but given he is unexposed and he has plenty of scope for further improvement.

HIGHLAND HARVEST 8-9 ~ His career best effort came here at Windsor when able to dictate the pace in a 4 runner conditions race. He finished 2nd only a couple of lengths behind Phoenix Tower with Britannia Stakes winner Eddie Jock back in 3rd. That flatters him some what as he had his own way out in front. He failed to live up to the bare form of that race and was held in a number of handicaps including a couple here at Windsor. The all weather bought around some improvement but on his last start in that sphere he only managed to beat Twilight Star by a head. Considering that rival got no sort of run in the race and is a lb better off Highland Harvest is far from certain to confirm the placings.  The David Elsworth 4yo colt needs to improve if he’s to take a hand in the finish.

FULL VICTORY 8-9 ~ The most exposed horse in the field so chances are he’ll be vulnerable to at least one of the younger unexposed horses in the line up. The 6yo gelding will probably also need the run today and is 6lbs higher than his highest career winning mark. He will have to improve if he’s going to win today and its likely that he’ll struggle in this company.

WESTERN ROSS 8-9 ~ Finished well behind Northern Jem in a maiden over 10f here at Windsor last season. The James Eustace gelding didn’t really have to improve on that 6th when breaking his duck in an auction maiden, again over 10f here at Windsor. That race hasn’t worked out well at all and the 4yo struggled on his mark in the high 70s in two subsequent handicaps. The drop in trip might bring around some improvement as easily his best effort came in a 7f maiden as a 2yo. The gelding will love any cut in the ground as has gone well fresh in the past so not without a chance back over possibly a more suitable trip.

GAZBOOLOU 8-7 ~ On a form line through Teasing this Royal Applause gelding doesn’t have too much to find with Den’s Gift. However that rival beat Gazboolou rather easier than the bare form suggests and Den’s Gift has beaten him in a London Mile qualifier at Kempton. He has only won a maiden and a claimer for Karl Burke so his new trainer has to find some improvement in the 4yo before he is capable of winning a handicap as competitive as todays race.

CONCLUSION

Shortlist includes Novikov, Northern Jem, Twilight Star, Den’s Gift and Trans Siberian.

Den’s Gift is a consistent performer who has proven fitness and ran well over an inadequate trip last time out. Back to a mile he could prove dangerous and sets the standard they have to beat in the race as he is the best of the exposed runners. Novikov is of interest dropped in class for his top stable but given he has been gelded he may need the run after that operation and 8 months off the track. Challenging him for favouritism is Trans Siberian from the red hot Paul Cole yard. He won a weak Wolverhampton maiden so will need to improve to defy his handicap mark of 76. This unexposed 4yo is almost guaranteed to improve on that form though but still needs to confirm his liking for todays conditions after being far from convincing on his debut. Twilight Star doesn’t have a dissimilar profile to that of Trans Siberian and he is sure to improve for his run on the all weather last time out. He has proven himself in todays conditions though so that is an advantage but he doesn’t really have the scope of the Paul Cole colt. He has the advantage of already having a run this season though and he should improve a lot on the form he showed at Lingfield. A chance though is taken on George Margarson’ Northern Jem whose claims have been outlined above. He’s had more time to develop and mature so if putting it all in he will be hard to beat.

1pt WIN – NORTHERN JEM @ 14.0

RESULT

NORTHERN JEM n/r = N/A