WARWICK

8:40 TWEENHILLS FARM AND STUD WARWICKSHIRE OAKS STAKES (LISTED RACE) (FILLIES & MARES) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m2f

BAHIA BREEZE 8-12 ~ A reproduction of her close 2nd in the Group 2 Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville last season would make her hard to beat in todays field. However that came when there was plenty of cut in the ground and the 6yo mare is seen to best effect when there is some soft in the going description. Todays good/firm ground isn’t ideal but she has proven in the past that she is still more than capable on quick ground. The ground is a concern but it isn’t the main issue though as she has returned this season looking a shadow of her former self. She finished last in the Group 2 bet365 Mile on her reappearance but then more worrying was her effort next time in the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom. She finished a well beaten 8th of 9 in a race she had finished 2nd in last year when sandwiching Cheveley Park Stud pair Echelon and Nannina. She didn’t look to have any excuses for her last run and a watching brief is advised until she shows some signs of a return to form.

BAYLINI 8-12 ~ Reported to have growing problems earlier on in her career and it wasn’t until she started to strengthen up and fill her frame that she started to live up to the expectations of connections. Her 6 length win in a Lingfield handicap marked her down as a filly who would be contesting stakes races in the not too distant future. She ran a good race in the Listed Winter Derby Trial Stakes before producing a career best effort in the Group 3 Winter Derby itself.  Despite being one of the lowest rated horses in the line up she ran well for a long way and didn’t finish too far behind horses rated in the hundreds. All of her efforts on the all weather were over todays trip so that shouldn’t be a concern and neither should the turf as the big grey has proven equally effective on both surfaces in the past. However all of her best efforts on the turf have come with some cut in the ground so todays quick conditions may not be ideal. She also hasn’t seen a racecourse for 3 months since her run in the Winter Derby so she may prove better for the outing. She has to improve on all known form today and with a couple of question marks over her chances she is passed over.

COSMODROME 8-12 ~ Winner of the Listed Height of Fashion Stakes run at Goodwood last season. Sudoor and Luca Cumanis filly dominated the race as the pair pulled clear of the field. Initially she looked to be a filly with a bright future but that race hasn’t worked out at all well. Next time out in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes she was sent off 3rd favourite but was comfortably beaten. It turned out she had injured herself in the race though and she missed the rest of the season but how much it affected her in the race is just guesswork. Her seasonal reappearance at Kempton was encouraging as she ran well before tiring as if she would come on a lot of the run. Next time out however she ran a very poor race in the Group 3 Dahlia Stakes fading tamely as if something was amiss. Now I think it’s worth mentioning the bounce factor but I’m not convinced it can be blamed for the fillies’ poor effort last time. Normally the bounce factor comes about after a horse has returned from injury and produced a career best, or near best, performance on their reappearance. Clearly Cosmodromes 5th in a Listed race at Kempton isn’t anywhere near her best so I’m not willing to put her poor run last time down to the bounce factor. If I’m wrong however she could well return to form today and run a big race at a price for her wily Italian trainer. If she does return to form conditions should be ideal with trip and ground perfect. However in her current form she is taken on and it could be that she isn’t the same filly after her injury.

MIRAMARE 8-12 ~ Only guaranteed front runner in the field so it wouldn’t be out of the question to suggest she could get her own way out in front. Last time at Haydock in the Listed Pinnacle Stakes Jamie Spencer decided to go off a dozen lengths in front and she looked to have the field in trouble at one point. However she tired entering the final two furlongs and had to give way to Folk Opera and Under The Rainbow. She still plugged on to fill third though and was only beaten about three lengths by the winter. She raced a little keenly and if she can learn to settle she could well make up into a solid pattern class filly. The drop down in trip might help as they’ll travel that bit faster and her half sister Macleya was a versatile sort regarding middle distance trips. There isn’t much doubt she is a quirky individual but at the same time she is clearly talented and as such a lightly raced 4yo she is open to plenty of improvement. Given that the talent is there and she is very likely to get the run of the race she has to be a serious contender in todays race.

RONALDSAY 8-12 ~ Progressive 3yo handicapper last season for Richard Hannon but in soft ground at Newmarket she made the progression into Listed company when 2nd in the Severals Stakes. Sweet Lilly was a neck back in third that day but Mick Channons filly was carrying a 3lbs penalty for a win in a Listed race earlier on in the season. On that form Ronaldsay still has a little to find with that rival today on level weighs. The handicapper responded to that improved effort by putting the filly up 12lbs in the ratings which forced the hand of connections and made handicaps a thing of the past. She wasn’t seen out again till returning this season in a conditions race at Ripon but she ran well below form and was beaten some 15 length by the winner Championship Point. Her next two runs were better but in pattern class she looked out of her depth and she was well beaten by Miramare in the Listed Pinnacle Stakes at Haydock. Salvation came with the handicapper relenting and dropping her 6lbs in the ratings. A return to handicap company proved the ticket and she bounced back to winning ways. Probably more significant though was the return to racing on soft ground as all of her best form has come when there’s been cut in the ground. Today her chances rest on the heavens opening, as they did at Salisbury today, and turning the ground soft. Without soft ground she looks sure to struggle again back in Listed company.
 
ROYAL FANTASY 8-12 ~ A quirky individual James Fanshawes 5yo mare looked to have the beating of Ronaldsay when the pair met in a Doncaster handicap last time. At the two furlong pole she shot 3-4 lengths clear and looked to have the race in the bag. However she idled and hung left going into the final furlong and she was collared by the top weight near the line. It will take an inspired ride to get the mare to finally get her head in front on the line again as she has to be delivered as late as possible. Royal Fantasy and Ronaldsay re-oppose again today but the daughter of King’s Best is 18lbs worse off at the weights for a neck defeat. She has the potential to be better than a 80 rated horse but her quirks let her down and she will have to improve some 20lbs to win today. When you consider she also struggles to win in far weaker races than this she is passed over. However a word of note as the stable won this race last year with outsider Dash To The Front who was rated 81, some 20lbs inferior to the principles. However with the short price favourite flopping and the short price second favourite pulled up at halfway the race was a bit of a non event. This years renewal has more strength in depth and so it’s hard to see lightning striking twice.

SWEET LILLY 8-12 ~ Mick Channons 4yo filly produced a very creditable performance in arguably the hottest 1¼ mile race of the season for the fairer sex. At Goodwood in the Group 1 Nassau Stakes she finished 4th behind Peeping Fawn, Mandesha and Light Shift. Apart from Light Shift who wasn’t at her best the form looked strong with a good break back to the 5th Don’t Dili Dali. However that is easily the best piece of form the filly has shown and she hasn’t matched it since. If she were to she would win by half the straight but she’s probably best to judged her on her 2nd behind Sixties Icon at Goodwood last time. That was a decent effort but it hardly gives her the supremacy over the field that her price suggests. She is also an extremely quirky individual who pulls hard and hangs across the track whilst swishing her tail. Apparently ideally suited by big fields she isn’t going to get that and she is likely to pull even harder than usually off what is likely to be a steady early pace. She is the class horse in the race if putting it all in but that is far from certain and she can be taken on at her short price.

VELMA KELLY 8-12 ~ It will be interesting to see how Walter Swinburns 4yo filly shows up in this Listed race. On her only racecourse appearance she was sent off at 16/1 for an auction maiden at Wolverhampton. Ran over the extended 9f she stayed on well to win by a short head from 60 rated Auntie Mame. On the form of that she doesn’t have a prayer in todays race. She’s currently rated 64 and so it’s interesting that connections are ready to forsake her current handicap mark in todays Listed race. They must think she has a serious chance today as if she does turn out to be a Listed class filly she could be making hey in handicaps off her current mark. Connections must believe she is ready to make the step up but she would make a lot more appeal if trained by someone like Luca Cumani rather than Walter Swinburn. After 9 months off the track she may also need the run and on form she is impossible to back.

CONCLUSION

At the price the quirk favourite Sweet Lilly has to be taken on as although talented in the long run she is a horse to oppose at short prices rather than back.
Warwick is a track where front runners can be seen at an advantage and as Miramare could have the benefit of an easy lead so has to be of interest. A lightly raced individual she is open to plenty of improvement and if given a cannier ride by Tom Queally than she received under Jamie Spencer then she could prove hard to peg back. If the rain stays away she seems the most likely winner but if the heavens open then the complexion to the race could change with Ronaldsay looking the filly to benefit the most.

1pt WIN – MIRAMARE

RESULT

MIRAMARE 3rd = -1pt