NEWMARKET

3:45 BANSHAHOUSESTABLES.COM CRAVEN STAKES (GROUP 3) (COLTS & GELDINGS) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m

CITY LEADER 9-1 ~ Didn’t see which way Raven’s Pass had gone when he beat him by 7 lengths Group 3 Solario Stakes. Lacking any real turn of foot soft ground suits him better though and with his conditions he managed to improve to win the Royal Lodge Stakes next time out. Little doubt that was a weak renewal though as it was a bunched finish containing several horses that wouldn’t cut the mustard in a race of this standard. He ran another solid race in the Racing Post Trophy but the proximity of Feared In Flight in 3rd really cramps the form. With his penalty he faces a tall order to win today but he is consistent enough he is sure to run his race.

SCINTILLO 9-1 ~ Improved last season once stepped up to a mile which culminated in the Richard Hannon colt winning an Italian Group 1, the Gran Criterium. Probably wise not to get too carried away with the fact it was a Group 1 considering the quality of the opposition. A consistent Fantastic Light colt he had previously run well behind McCartney at Salisbury and City Leader in the Royal Lodge. With his penalty he will have to have improved a lot over the winter if he’s capable of making his mark in this competitive race.

ALEXANDER CASTLE 8-12 ~ Many Lemon Drop Kid colts progress well with age so it’s highly likely that the Kevin Ryan 3yo will improve considerably on his 2yo form. In the States the sires progeny regularly don’t see a racecourse till they’re 3 and there are plenty horse on this side of the pond who show improvement from 2yo-3yo. His trainer is quoted saying he was a big weak horse last season but he has strengthened up over the winter. He rates the colt as his best chance of winning a Classic and having had Amadeus Wolf, who finished 7th behind George Washington, he must be a serious animal.

DECLARATION OF WAR 8-12 ~ Lost his unbeaten record at Royal Ascot when sent off 2nd favourite behind Henrythenavigator in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes. After bouncing back in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes he reserved the placings with Hatta Fort in the Group 1 Grand Criterium. He was only beaten by Godolphins Rio De La Plata so it was a fine effort which put him right in the picture for the Racing Post Trophy. However he ran another disappointing race and he was probably over the top for a yard who weren’t in the best of form at the time. He’s interesting here today for his in-form yard if he is able to reproduce his Grand Criterium form but he looks to be playing for places again though.

GREAT RUMPUSCAT 8-12 ~ Well beaten behind stable companion Jupiter Pluvius in the Group 3 Killavullan Stakes at Leopardstown. Much more needed judging by that effort and he looks the clear second string on jockey bookings. Hard to fancy him despite his connections.

INDIAN SKIPPER 8-12 ~ On the bare form he deserves to be the outsider of the field especially given his inexperience and his connections. He started at 50/1 for a Newmarket maiden on his only run as a 2yo and wasn’t given a hard time once his chance had gone. He turned up to Lingfield for a 3yo maiden on his seasonal reappearance last month and he beat Gulch´s Rose who has a 1000 Guineas entry for Jeremy Noseda and Ed Dunlops Riqaab. The latter didn’t stay next time out but the form isn’t good enough for a race like this which ever way you look at it. However it was the mannor of victory which was impressive and he looked very green. He hung right and looked to be labouring before in the final half furlong he put in a burst of speed that was quite frankly breathtaking. Raven’s Pass would have been proud with the turn of foot the Mark Thompkins colt showed and he definitely has much more to offer.

PERFECT STRIDE 8-12 ~ Made an encouraging debut when winning at Sandown last season so it was a very disappointing effort when beaten in a four runner Novice Stakes at Leicester on his next outing. So on form he has plenty to find but the signs are all there that he has improved considerably since his juvenile season last year. Sir Michael Stoute has a fine record in the Craven but Confront who had very decent form last season has been diverted to the Greenham. The Greenham has never been a trial Sir Michael Stoute has used for his classic contenders with only one winner and few runners in the last 19 years. It would then be sensible to suggest Perfect Stride is the yards main classic contender. Kieran Fallon who rides out for the master trainer has said the colt gave him a similar feel to Footstepsinthesand gave him before he went on to win the 2000 Guineas. Everything suggest a big run is on the card and he could be his trainers 9th victory in the race.

RAVEN’S PASS 8-12 ~ John Gosdens star 2yo comes into the race as the horse they all have to beat. His class as a juvenile was well documented and there for all to see. However he wouldn’t be the first star 2yo not to train on and flop in the Craven. Sander Camillo in the Neil Gywn is a recent example of why it’s better to be wary when backing short prices on a horses 2yo form. He isn’t being trained for this race and his trainer has stated that the horse is very free at home will need the run. If reproducing his best form though that shouldn’t stop him winning and the yard were in cracking form yesterday.

RIVER PROUD 8-12 ~ Paul Cole yard are in fine form at the moment so River Proud has to enter calculations after some fine efforts as a 2yo. He finished a short head 2nd in the Group 2 July Stakes behind Winker Watson and won the Group 3 Tattersall Stakes both efforts here at HQ. Both disappointing runs came at Doncaster so a return to Newmarket should help and he is sure to be involved in the finish.

THE BOGBERRY 8-12 ~ Won his maiden after improving considerably on his debut run. He finished lame after disappointing at Royal Ascot and he hasn’t been seen since. A lot more needed on his 2yo form and well down the Ballydoyle pecking order.

TWICE OVER 8-12 ~ Two very encouraging wins at the back end of last season put him in the picture for the Derby. Given the colts pedigee though he is far from certain to stay the 1½ mile trip. So connections are testing the water here against some of the top milers to see if he has the speed and class for the Guineas. A very interesting contender for Henry Cecil but he will need to step up on the bare form of his wins as a juvenile. The Observatory colt has plenty of scope and he has to enter calculations.

CONCLUSION

Shortlist includes Alexander Castle, Indian Skipper, Perfect Stride, Raven’s Pass, River Proud and Twice Over.

Indian Skipper looks one to look out for when dropped down into handicap company as this is ultra competititve.
The chances of Alexander Castle and Perfect Stride rest solely on their progression over the winter. Preference though is for Sir Michael Stoute colt Perfect Stride given the fact he is runs today marks and all the right noises mark him down as his trainer’s best classic contender.

Raven’s Pass sets the standard on his 2yo form but he maybe worth taking on given the reasons already mentioned. Twice Over is the likely one to take his crown but he might prefer further and he looks ready made for the Dante if a mile ends up to be too short. He is respected but slight preference is for an each way angle into the race and the Paul Cole trained River Proud looks a very attractive each way price. He ran some fine races here at HQ last season and given the form of the yard he shouldn’t be too far away at the finish.

0.5pts EACH WAY – RIVER PROUD @ 20/1

RESULT

RIVER PROUD 4th = -1pt