ASCOT

2:30 QUEEN ANNE STAKES (GROUP 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m

ARABIAN GLEAM 9-0 ~ Progressive individual last season and racing mainly over 7f he left the impression that he was crying out for an extra furlong. After finishing behind Tariq in a couple of Group races he won the Group 3 Park Stakes at Doncaster beating Duff. Next time out in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes he was badly drawn and did well to finish where he did, catching the eye as he ran on well from the back of the pack. After running a massive race on his reappearing in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury he looks sure to improve on anything he showed as a 3yo. On his first attempt over a mile he stayed on steadily to finish a very creditable 5th in the leading group. He looks sure to improve for the run and he doesn’t have much to find with the principles so a lively contender. However against the best of the older European milers this may prove a step too far and a slight drop in class may prove more fruitful.

CESARE 9-0 ~ The James Fanshawe trained 7yo has always shown his best form at Ascot, including in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes last year when finishing a close up 4th behind Ramonti, Excellent Art and Duke Of Marmalade. Although the colt has been labelled not quite good enough to win a Group 1 a reproduction of that effort might prove good enough to win todays race. That effort came on soft ground and the horses’ best form has been when he can get his toe into the ground. The likely firm ground isn’t ideal and it may make the difference between another fine placed effort in a Group 1 at Ascot and finally breaking his duck in Group 1 company. This season though he has been in fine form and after laughing at the field in a Listed race over course and distance he ran a good race in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes. He finished a close 4th but it was another near miss in a Group 1 and although not having everything his own way during the race he didn’t look particularly unlucky. He looks almost guaranteed to be involved at the finish and has to be given plenty of respect.

HARADASUN 9-0 ~ Multiple Group 1 winning horse from Down Under but with nothing to compare it with it has the potential to be a little misleading. Even in his two Group 1 wins in the Southern Hemisphere he didn’t emerge as the best horse in the race at the weights. Since his two Group 1 wins he has racked up a series of placed efforts without winning and in his last seven races in Australia he was a beaten favourite five times. He would have continued that trend on his UK debut but he drifted like a barge before the off and went from being favourite to the fourth choice of punters. A keen going sort he finished 6th but can be considered a little unlucky as he was running on at the finish before the door was closed on him. That was his first run for 6 months though and he is sure to improve on that effort. However he was being scrubbed along quite far out and another slowly run race isn’t likely to suit so he’ll be relying on his pacemaker to set the race up for him. Overall his profile suggests he’ll be a dangerous unknown but he can’t be backed on his efforts in Australia and on his British debut he never looked like winning. He couldn’t have a better trainer though in O’Brien and the stables runners always warrant plenty of respect in Group 1 races but I’m not convinced he’s got the improvement in him to win today.

HONOURED GUEST 9-0 ~ On his 3rd in the French 2000 Guineas last season he would have place claims but that was his final racecourse appearance last year. He has clearly had his problems though as he hasn’t looked the same animal in two starts this season. He has plenty to prove at present and as the stables 3rd string on jockey bookings he looks almost certain to be used as a pacemaker to ensure a decent gallop for Haradasun.

LINNGARI 9-0 ~ It’s three years since the Indian Ridge colt was last with Sir Michael Stoute and he has had a succession of trainers since then. He makes his debut on his second stint for the master trainer and he’ll definitely need to improve on what he’s been showing recently, both last season and in Dubai earlier this year. Also after three months off the track he is likely to be a little ring rusty and he needs to show some improvement for the change of yards if he is going to figure. There won’t be any room for error in today’s race and he looks like one of the more unlikely winners in the field.

MOUNT NELSON 9-0 ~ Looked to be a juvenile with a bright future when winning the Group 1 Criterium International at Saint-Cloud two years ago. However his 3yo campaign was a non-starter due to injury and he only returned at the end of last season for the Group 1 Champion Stakes. He finished 11th of 12 but it was hardly surprising given he was returning after a year off the track due to injury. It’s interesting that he has been kept in training considering he is already a Group 1 winner but Ballydoyle obviously think he can still put up a bold show in Group races. He’ll need to improve on what he has shown in two starts this season but he has had his excuses. His reappearance effort can be forgiven as the stables runners were badly in need of the run early in the year. During his run last time at Chantilly he was an unlucky 3rd as he was repeatedly hampered before running on well at the finish. That was a run full of encouragement but this is a whole different ball game and he’ll need to produce a substantial career best performance to win. However he has already shown as a juvenile that when at his best he is a serious animal so it wouldn’t be out of the question that after two prep runs he’ll show considerable improvement. The son of Rock Of Gibraltar is an interesting outsider and the potential improver in the field.

SAGEBURG 9-0 ~ Trained by Andre Fabre last season and there was a lot of hype surrounding this horse as he lined up for the main French Arc trial, the Group 2 Prix Niel. He couldn’t live up to the hype though as he was well beaten in 4th, finishing about 8 lengths behind Soldier Of Fortune. He did run at the Arc meeting but instead of lining up in Europe’s premier race he was running in the Group 2 Prix Dollar where he was comfortably beaten in 4th. He left Andre Fabre at the end of the season and joined Chantilly trainer Alain Royer-Dupre. He made his seasonal reappearance this year in the Group 1 Prix Ganay where he stayed on well to finish 3rd. That was run over 1¼ miles and he ran as if wanting a step back up to 1½ miles. However he was in fact dropped in trip on his next start and it proved just the ticket as he produced a career best effort when comfortably winning the Group 1 Prix d'Ispahan. He beat his more fancied stable mate, Darjina, who was one of the best milers in the world last season. The filly was probably a bit below par but Sageburg looked a different animal and travelled well through the race before staying well to win impressively. Looking at the colts breeding his sire, Johannesburg, was a miler and although the dam was a 1½ mile horse the dams sire, Linamix, was also a miler. Looking at the family of Sageburg the dam’s side is a mixed bunch of milers and mile and a half horses. On what he showed last time at Longchamp it now seems certain that the horse has finally found his niche and he won’t be running further than 1¼ miles again. He will be facing quick ground for the first time and a mile, having run over 9f last time, but his trainer has stated the ground shouldn’t be a concern. The trip is a bit of a concern though as the further they went at Longchamp the better he ran and he only got started really motoring inside the final furlong. He could be outpaced on his first attempt over a mile and on quick ground, especially if the pace is steady, so that is a concern. However the 4yo colt has shown considerable improvement for his new trainer and he’s unexposed over today’s trip. He looks sure to improve again and he has to be rated as a major contender in todays race.

SPIRITO DEL VENTO 9-0 ~ Best piece of form to judge the 5yo gelding on is his 6th in the Group 1 Hong Kong Mile at the end of last season. He finished about 1½ lengths behind Darjina so has something to find with that filly but on 2lbs better terms the distance should be reduced in todays race. He has returned this season in decent nick and after struggling in testing ground on his first two runs he benefitted from a return to decent ground at Chantilly in the Group 3 Prix Equidia. He won by a comfortable margin despite having to carry a 4lbs penalty but todays race will be much tougher. The ground should be ideal though and the trip perfect so with conditions to suit he should run a big race but whether he quite has the ability to win is another thing.

TARIQ 9-0 ~ After a shaky start to the season last year he won the Group 3 Jersey Stakes at last years Royal Ascot in impressive fashion. He travelled when though the race and when asked to go on to win he showed a good turn of foot when opening up a 2½ length advantage over the 2nd US Ranger. Possibly even better was his next performance at Goodwood when winning by a reduced margin but having to do it from what is normally a terminal draw for all but the best horses. He had to come around the whole field and showed a good turn of foot to overhaul the long time leader Dunelight. Those were two highly impressive performances and it meant he was sent off favourite for arguably the most competitive Group 1 race all season. The Prix de la Foret run at Longchamps Arc meeting contained a high class field but the race itself failed to live up to expectations. The first two horses Toylsome and Welsh Emperor had the run of the race and the finishing order didn’t change much from the first furlong to the last. In ground that would have been far from ideal Tariq didn’t have the race run to suit and was held up too far out the back. As a result he did well to finish were he did as prominent runners dominated. He returned this season in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury and despite concerns about the 4yo staying the mile he ran on well at the finish allaying any fears about the trip. He in fact produced an eye-catching performance as he was last going into the final two furlongs but he stayed on well to finish a never nearer 3rd and he looked sure to improve for a stronger pace. Now there aren’t concerns about him getting the trip he can be ridden with more confidence, the ground should suit him better than at Newbury and with the run under his belt he looks sure to improve. In fact of those who ran in the Group 1 Lockinge, which has proved an important trial for the Queen Anne, he looks the horse with the most potential improvement in him. As a result he has to be at the forefront of anyone’s shortlist for the race.

DARJINA 9-0 ~ The stable companion of Sageburg warrants plenty of respect as one of the world best 8 furlong performers. The Alain Royer-Dupre trained filly beat last years Queen Anne Stakes winner Ramonti when the pair met in the Group 1 Prix du Moulin at Longchamp. She flopped next time when faced with soft ground in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes but bounced back to form in one of the world hottest mile races, the Group 1 Hong Kong Mile ran at Sha Tin. She finished 3rd, only 1¼ lengths behind Hong Kong’s superstar miler Good Ba Ba and this seasons Group 1 Lockinge Stakes winner Creachadoir, so it was commendable effort. That was her final run of the season and she didn’t return until Dubai World Cup night when lining up for the Group 1 Dubai Duty Free. Stepped up to 9f she ran well for a long way and looked the likely winner until tiring in the final furlong as the rallying Jay Peg got up back up on the line. The form of that race looks very strong with Jay Peg, Archipenko and Vodka all subsequently winning Group 1s. She made her European reappearance in the Group 1 Prix d'Ispahan, again over 9 furlongs and again she appeared a little laboured over the trip while the rain softened ground didn’t help. There seems little doubt Darjina will improve back racing over a mile on quick ground but the way Sageburg brushed her aside raises doubts that even with ideally conditions she may struggle to reverse the form. The proximity of the 3rd and 4th, Loup Breton and Turfrose seems to confirm that Darjina wasn’t at her best but both horses are decent horses in their own right. Loup Breton was a winner of a Group 2 the run before and Turfrose a previous Group 1 winner in Italy. Expect a much better Darjina than we saw at Longchamp last time and with ideal conditions expect a performance right up to her best. Whether that will be good enough to beat her stable mate is another thing but an Alain Royer-Dupre 1-2 isn’t out of the question.

FINSCEAL BEO 9-0 ~ Dual 1000 Guineas winner and almost collected the set but was just denied by Darjina in the French 1000 Guineas. However the filly paid for her hectic early season schedule when flopping in her three subsequent starts. She returned this season in Dubai when running a race full of promise in the Group 1 Dubai Duty Free. She was a little unlucky not to finish closer as she was too far back off the steady pace but ran on well to finish 5th. As mentioned previous the form of that race is impressive with three of the first four subsequently winning a Group 1. She still has ground to find with Darjina on that form though but she ran another fine race next time in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup. She finished a close 2nd behind Duke Of Marmalade and she looked to be back to her best travelling well before appearing to be outstayed by the winner, who doesn’t look short of stamina. Jim Bolger’s 4yo filly hasn’t run over a mile since her flop in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at last years Royal Ascot but the drop down in trip is surely only a positive considering her best form has come over 8 furlongs. The ground should be in her favour, unlike on her last visit to the Berkshire track and expect the 1000 Guineas winning Finsceal Beo rather than Coronation Stakes Finsceal Beo. Whether that will be good enough against only time shall tell but she has to be given the respect her class deserves.

CONCLUSION

Historically the key piece of form for this race has been be the only other Group 1 race in the UK for 4yo+ milers, the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes run at Newbury.
Of those that lined up at Newbury Tariq makes most appeal as he finished the best of those in the line up for today race despite having plenty against him including the ground, fitness and how the race was run.
Of those that didn’t travel to Newbury the two fillies are certainly interesting and there isn’t much between them. Finsceal Beo seems to have returned to somewhere near her best and a huge performance only looks round the corner. However despite the obvious talent she showed in her Guineas runs she is still a little risk and against some the top milers around there won’t be any room for her not being at the peak of her powers. Darjina is a class act and on the form of her Moulin win she would be hard to beat but only once has she run up to that form. Still on the rest of her form she looks sure to run a big race and if the pace isn’t that strong she’ll be in the right place to strike.
Sageburg the stable mate of Darjina has shown much improved form this season and the way he ran on past the filly was impressive. However that was run at a good clip, in soft ground over 9f. Whether he’ll have the pace for a mile on quick ground at Ascot remains to be seen, especially if the pace is steady. So slight preference is for his stable mate Darjina to reverse the form and she is sure to improve now she has her conditions.

1st - DARJINA
2nd - SAGEBURG
3rd - TARIQ

1pt WIN – DARJINA @ 7/1
0.5pt REVERSE FORECAST – DARJINA and SAGEBURG

RESULT

DARJINA 2nd = -1pt
SAGEBURG 6th = -1pt