NEWBURY
2:45 JUDDMONTE LOCKINGE STAKES (GROUP 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m
AL QASI 9-0 ~ Formerly campaigned as a sprinter but towards the end of last season he made the step up in trip. On his first attempt over 7f he finished an unlucky 2nd in the Group 3 VC Bet Challenge Stakes at Newmarket. The eventual winner squeezed him out in the final furlong causing him to lose vital momentum and Ted Durcan had to switch out wide to challenge, he ran on again but Miss Lucifer had gone beyond recall. That performance holds out plenty of hope that he’ll stay the mile and if you watch him over 7f he looks like he’ll be a better horse for the step up. He attempted the extra furlong in the Group 1 Hong Kong Mile but he was comfortably beaten and it didn’t really tell us anything. He may not have liked the long journey and he can be forgiven that poor run. He made his reappearance at Leicester and he is sure to come on for the run after finishing 2nd behind Captain Marvelous. The recent rain has helped his cause and everything looks to be in the 5yos favour so this will be the acid test of how good he really is against some of the best milers.
ARABIAN GLEAM 9-0 ~ Progressive individual last season and racing mainly over 7f he left the impression that he was crying out for the extra furlong. After finishing behind Tariq in a couple of Group races he won the Group 3 Park Stakes at Doncaster beating Duff. Next time out in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes he was badly drawn and did well to finish where he did catching the eye as he ran on from the back of the pack. This year he is sure to improve on anything he showed last season but considerable improvement is needed in this company and he is likely to need the run. An interesting performer when stepped down in class and one to keep an eye out for.
ASTRONOMER ROYAL 9-0 ~ Winner of the Group 1 French 2000 Guineas and 3rd in the Group 1 St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. A reproduction of that form would put the Ballydoyle colt in with a great shout in this race. However he has subsequently lost his form and he has something to prove at present. Given there is also no obvious pace angle in the race he could be used solely as a pacemaker for the yards first string Haradasun. As a result he looks a risky better proposition and he could need the run after 7 months away from the track.
CESARE 9-0 ~ Loves Ascot and made his reappearance there last month in the Listed Paradise Stakes. He produced a tremendously impressive performance in the race and won on the bridle against some high class handicappers. It will be interesting to see how he performs back in Group 1 company as last season he was found slightly wanting against the best milers. His fine efforts in the Group 1 QEII and Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes have to put him in with a serious chance though and he looks the one they all have to beat. Conditions should be ideal with the recent rain easing the ground but it will be interesting to see how he performs away from his beloved Ascot.
CREACHADOIR 9-0 ~ His 2nd in the Group 1 Hong Kong Mile is arguably the best piece of form on offer. He was also forced to race out wide from his bad draw and was only beaten a short head by one of the worlds best mile horses, Good Ba Ba. The Godolphin colt is much better over a mile on fast ground and he can excused his run last time out at Dubai. Trapped against the rail he didn’t see out the trip that well before being hampered at the finishing resulting in the colt finishing further down the field than he otherwise would have. The recent rain is a concern as is the form of the yard which appears to be a little hit and miss at the moment. However he has an obvious chance on the best of his form and he has to be respected.
HARADASUN 9-0 ~ Multiple Group 1 winning horse from Down Under but that in itself presents obvious difficulties in judging the value of his form. He seems equally effective over 7f all the way up to 10f so the trip shouldn’t be a concern and neither should the conditions as he has winning form on soft ground. However even for his 2 Group 1 wins he didn’t emerge as the best horse in the race at the weights and he has racked up a series of placed efforts without winning. 5 times in the last 7 races he has been a beaten favourite and once again he looks like going off as the market leader. On the positive side he has been backed all week and has apparently been “working the house down at home”. Ballydoyle know a serious horse when they see one and the vibes are very encouraging. This is his first run in this country so he could need the run but Aidan O’Brien has proven now and again he can get one ready first time out, especially for races such as this. Not an easy horse to evaluate but the horse has plenty to prove on his debut in the North Hemisphere and his price doesn’t leave a lot of room for error in this competitive Group 1 event.
PHOENIX TOWER 9-0 ~ Another unbeaten colt for Henry Cecil and connections shall be hoping he fares better than Twice Over did in the Dante. He looked an encouraging 3yo last year but injury curtailed his season quite early on. He made his reappearance this season at the Craven meeting when winning the Group 3 Earl of Sefton Stakes. The slow early pace resulted in a bunched finish but after looking trapped in behind horses he showed a good turn of foot to go up a gap on the inside. The manner of victory rather than the bare form was very encouraging but it goes without saying that much more is needed today. However he is sure to come on for his first run in almost a year and he has proven he has a good turn of foot so should the race turn into a sprint up the straight he would be more than able of going with the leaders.
ROB ROY 9-0 ~ The one time 2nd favourite for the 2000 Guineas is back with Sir Michael Stoute after spending time in the US. He had been largely disappointing in his first stint with the master trainer but 3rd in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes and 2nd in the Group 1 Champion Stakes proves he possesses enough ability to be competitive in Group 1 company. Interesting that he is kept in training at 6 and he made an encouraging reappearance at Sandown behind Major Cadeaux. Not without a chance if back to his best and he couldn’t have a better trainer to get him ready.
TARIQ 9-0 ~ Draw, ground and pace all conspired to count against the Peter Chapple-Hyam colt on his final start of the season at Longhcamp. He is better than that, as he showed when sweeping past the field in the Group 3 Jersey Stakes and the Group 2 Lennox Stakes last season. That was all over a mile and on his only start over a mile in the French 2000 Guineas he ran too bad to be true. He is worth another attempt over a mile and he isn’t stopping over 7f so the suggestion is it shouldn’t be a concern. Currently only a Group 2 horse but he won those races with such ease that it’s not unreasonable to believe he’ll be able to make his mark stepped up into Group 1 company.
BARSHIBA 8-11 ~ Best effort came in a fillies only Group 1 on soft ground over in France. Finished 4th behind Darjina but he saddle slipped and anyones guess how she would have got on if it hadn’t. However she has been disappointing since and despite an encouraging reappearance she is likely to be outclassed.
MAJESTIC ROI 8-11 ~ Peeress won the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes before winning the Group 1 Lockinge the following season. Last seasons race looked a particularly strong renewal with Group 1 winners Nannina, Echelon and Simply Perfect all beaten far and square. Not hard to forgive her a disappointing run over in Dubai and with the recent good weather the yards runners are looking, and running, a lot better than they had early in the season. A reproduction of her Group 1 winning form would put her in with a great chance but the ground may have gone against her and the yards runners are very hit and miss.
CONCLUSION
Fascinating contest in which cases can be made for almost all the participants but possibly the deciding factor will be the early pace which could result in a sprint up the straight.
The favourite Haradasun maybe something special but he has plenty of questions hanging over his chances and he isn’t a great price. It will be interesting to see how Cesare performs away from Ascot in ideal conditions. However there is the suspicion he is just short of Group 1 class but on the flip side todays race may also prove a weak Group 1. He looks sure to be in the first three but he could just find one or two too good. Majestic Roi won’t have to be as good as Cesare to win with her fillies allowance and on a form line through Echelon she should have the beating of James Fanshawes colt. That is of course she is able to reproduce her Sun Chariot form in this slower ground. The ground won’t be much different to what Phoenix Tower won on at the Craven meeting. He was trapped in for most of the race and could have won no more easily than he did. Despite the eventual winning margin he won a shade cosily and showed a good turn of foot in doing so. The ground is a concern for Creachadoir but if showing the same form as at Sha Tin then he is sure to win. However given conditions and the form of the yard there are serious doubts he’ll be the same animal. Sir Michael Stoute always warrants plenty of respect in this race and Rob Roy would have a great chance of finishing in the paces if showing his best form. However he is likely to be serious inconvenienced by a slow early pace and sprint up the straight and he has to prove he is the same horse he was two seasons ago. Tariq deserves to be tried over a mile and he runs as if likely to stay. He possesses an impressive turn of foot and is likely to be held right out the back so would probably preferred a strong pace.
There are plenty of positives and negatives for all the runners in the race but slight preference is for Creachadoir. He looks to be progressing for new connections and is likely to be held in a prominent position so if the pace is steady he’ll be in the perfect position to challenge. None of this field would be able to hold a candle to Good Ba Ba apart from the selection so despite reservations a chance is taken on the Godolphin colt. There are also reservations about Mick Channons filly but given her obvious class and the recent records of fillies in the race she is too big a price to ignore.
1pt WIN – CREACHADOIR @ 6/1
0.5pt EACH WAY – MAJESTIC ROI @ 16/1
RESULT
CREACHADOIR 1st = +6pts
MAJESTIC ROI 10th = -1pt
2:45 JUDDMONTE LOCKINGE STAKES (GROUP 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m
AL QASI 9-
ARABIAN GLEAM 9-
ASTRONOMER ROYAL 9-
CESARE 9-
CREACHADOIR 9-
HARADASUN 9-
PHOENIX TOWER 9-
ROB ROY 9-
TARIQ 9-
BARSHIBA 8-
MAJESTIC ROI 8-
CONCLUSION
Fascinating contest in which cases can be made for almost all the participants but possibly the deciding factor will be the early pace which could result in a sprint up the straight.
The favourite Haradasun maybe something special but he has plenty of questions hanging over his chances and he isn’t a great price. It will be interesting to see how Cesare performs away from Ascot in ideal conditions. However there is the suspicion he is just short of Group 1 class but on the flip side todays race may also prove a weak Group 1. He looks sure to be in the first three but he could just find one or two too good. Majestic Roi won’t have to be as good as Cesare to win with her fillies allowance and on a form line through Echelon she should have the beating of James Fanshawes colt. That is of course she is able to reproduce her Sun Chariot form in this slower ground. The ground won’t be much different to what Phoenix Tower won on at the Craven meeting. He was trapped in for most of the race and could have won no more easily than he did. Despite the eventual winning margin he won a shade cosily and showed a good turn of foot in doing so. The ground is a concern for Creachadoir but if showing the same form as at Sha Tin then he is sure to win. However given conditions and the form of the yard there are serious doubts he’ll be the same animal. Sir Michael Stoute always warrants plenty of respect in this race and Rob Roy would have a great chance of finishing in the paces if showing his best form. However he is likely to be serious inconvenienced by a slow early pace and sprint up the straight and he has to prove he is the same horse he was two seasons ago. Tariq deserves to be tried over a mile and he runs as if likely to stay. He possesses an impressive turn of foot and is likely to be held right out the back so would probably preferred a strong pace.
There are plenty of positives and negatives for all the runners in the race but slight preference is for Creachadoir. He looks to be progressing for new connections and is likely to be held in a prominent position so if the pace is steady he’ll be in the perfect position to challenge. None of this field would be able to hold a candle to Good Ba Ba apart from the selection so despite reservations a chance is taken on the Godolphin colt. There are also reservations about Mick Channons filly but given her obvious class and the recent records of fillies in the race she is too big a price to ignore.
1pt WIN – CREACHADOIR @ 6/1
0.5pt EACH WAY – MAJESTIC ROI @ 16/1
RESULT
CREACHADOIR 1st = +6pts
MAJESTIC ROI 10th = -
