ASCOT

2:30 JERSEY STAKES (GROUP 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 7f

STRIKE THE DEAL 9-6 ~ 5lbs penalty to carry and horses who carry penalties have a poor record in this race, as do horses who have previously run in the English 2000 Guineas. He should appreciate the drop in trip as he possess plenty of pace but he still has to prove he has trained on and prize money looks all connections can hope for.

BEACON LODGE 9-4 ~ Non-runner

JUPITER PLUVIUS 9-4 ~ One time Ballydoyle first string before a bad scope meant he had to skip the race and the rest is history as they say. On his reappearance in the Irish 2000 Guineas he was well beaten but he can be expected to come on for the run as the stables horses normally do. However being a Johannesburg colt there is always the worry he won’t train on and he has to step up on his juvenile form. He wasn’t overly impressive when winning the Group 3 Killavullan Stakes and the proximity of some average performers cramps the form. His penalty will make life harder and no horse since 1992 has won under a penalty so he is taken on.

PACO BOY 9-4 ~ Non-runner

AQLAAM 9-1 ~ Produced a commanding performance when winning a decent Newbury maiden and he looked a classy individual. That race has produced several subsequent winners and Aqlaam looks sure to make his mark in pattern company. However this is a big step up in class and although unexposed, others with stronger form are preferred.

BILLYFORD 9-1 ~ On the form of the Group 3 Killavullan Stakes he only has 1¼ lengths to find on Jupiter Pluvius. However he has been comfortably beaten on both starts on turf this season and he has plenty to find if he is going to be competitive.

BOBS SURPRISE 9-1 ~ Several decent placed efforts as a juvenile and he finished a good second on his reappearance in the Group 3 Greenham Stakes. However that came on soft ground when he had the run of the race. Next time out on quicker ground he was well beaten in the Listed King Charles II Stakes behind Calming Influence. In similar conditions a similar result looks likely and he is taken on.

CALMING INFLUENCE 9-1 ~ Unbeaten in both starts and he produced a pleasing effort when winning the Listed King Charles II Stakes. He gave Stimulation a good start and still looked green but Kerrin McEvoy only had to use the stick once and he picked up well to win a shade cosily. He looks guaranteed to improve with experience and he has to have a great chance today after winning one of the main trails for this race. Interesting that he carries the stables second colours but Frankie has got it wrong before and he’ll get it wrong again.

DREAM EATER 9-1 ~ Promising form as a juvenile and the stable has been in flying form this season. On his reappearance he ran a massive race in the English 2000 Guineas as he looked booked for third going into the final furlong before his stamina gave way. The drop in trip should suit but you have to go back to 1994 to find a horse who has won this race after lining up in the English 2000 Guineas. He looks sure to run a big race though but could be vulnerable to any improving 7f specialist.

GENEROUS THOUGHT 9-1 ~ Beaten in two handicaps this season and although he should have won the first and wasn’t suited by the sharp race last time this is a big step up. He was the best horse in both races at the weights but he could be vulnerable to rivals who have that bit of class and Paul Howling’s colt may only be good enough to earn some prize money.

GEORGEBERNARDSHAW 9-1 ~ Looked a progressive colt after two wins in testing ground but in the French 2000 Guineas he was disappointing. He looks a much better horse in testing conditions and on today’s quick ground he is ruled out.

IL WARRD 9-1 ~ Carries the Godolphin first colours but he was well beaten in the French 2000 Guineas last time. He was bought from Marcus Tregoning’s stable after running out an easy winner of the Listed Easter Stakes but that race has been made to look really poor. Can’t fancy him on his form this season but maybe Frankie knows something the form book doesn’t.

RED ALERT DAY 9-1 ~ Progressive juvenile form and was unlucky in both starts in Group company as a 2yo. A fast ground horse he didn’t take to the soft ground in the Group 3 Greenham Stakes on his reappearance but next time in the Listed King Charles II Stakes he ran a massive race. Held up off the steady pace he tracked Calming Influence though the field and had to wait for a run at one point. Once he got into the clear he showed as good finishing speed, if not better that the eventual winner, to finish a close 3rd. He looks sure to improve for the big field, fast pace and stiff finish in today’s race. Considering this he looks a massive price, especially in comparison to the price of the favourite and he has a massive chance of at least finishing in the first three.

SHALLAL 9-1 ~ Won a very hot maiden at Goodwood last season when Dream Eater was back in 3rd. That was a very promising effort but when he made his reappearance in the Group 3 Greenham Stakes he didn’t look like he grown up much from 2-3. The colt has the potential to run a big race at a massive price but he is worth looking at in the paddock to see if he has strengthened up since his last run.

STIMULATION 9-1 ~ Brought good form into the Listed King Charles II Stakes and he emerged as the best horse in the race, at the weights, when finishing close 2nd. He did race the run of the race however and he lacks the scope of the two rivals that sandwiched him that day. His trainer doesn’t fancy him and although sure not to be far away but while others are still moving forward he looks to have leveled off and his is taken on.

TAWAASH 9-1 ~ Won a handicap at York last time but it’s a lot easier to win from the front at York than it is at Ascot. The 2nd Swift Gift has done nothing for the form since and he looks sure to be a sitting duck going into the final two furlongs.

WAR OFFICER 9-1 ~ Stable sent out US Ranger who finished 2nd in this race last year and this colt has been really screaming out for some fast ground over in France. When he has been faced with good ground or the all weather surface he has looked impressive, winning his last three starts on his favoured surface. This year he absolutely laughed at a Listed field on the all weather at Deauville when making his reappearance. On a rather dodgy line through the 4th Salut L´Africain (finished 11th in the French 2000 Guineas) he should have finished 2nd in the French 2000 Guineas. Probably best to dwell on that but it hints what his horse is capable. Last time on testing ground he did well to win despite conditions and back on a favourable surface he looks a big danger to all concerned.

ROYAL CONFIDENCE 8-12 ~ Closely matched with Stimulation of the form of the Free Handicap but the colt didn’t have the run of the race that day coming off a steady pace. She has since run a good race in the English 1000 Guineas and she has a decent chance in today’s race. Fillies don’t have a good record in this race but then few come into the race in with decent form. She has been steady progressing throughout her career and she does have a shout at nicking a place but against the colts it will be tough.

CONCLUSION

The favourite Calming Influence looks a promising colt and it looked an obvious choice for Frankie so it’s bizarre and rather worrying that he jumps ship to Il Warrd. That has tilted me in the favour of two horses at bigger prices. Red Alert Day finished within a ¼ of a length of the favourite last time at Newmarket despite not being suited by how the race was run. He is 5 times the price and should have some improvement in him so a place looks a real possibility. The horse who should lead them home though is the French raider War Officer who has had this race as the plan for some time. The conditions should suit and the way he travels through his races gives the impression that he could be a serious horse.

1pt WIN – WAR OFFICER @ 16.0
1pt PLACE – RED ALERT DAY @ 6.4

RESULT

WAR OFFICER 8th = -1pt
RED ALERT DAY 12th = -1pt