AYR

3:40 CORAL SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)

HALCON GENELARDAIS 11-12 ~ Distant 5th in this race two years ago but the Alan King gelding has come on leaps and bounds since then. He won the Welsh National last season and followed that up with a great weight carrying performance in the same race this season. In the mud at Chepstow he lumped around top weight and only gave out to the talented Miko De Beauchene in the final strides. He ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time out and was a staying on 4th. That was a hard race last month but this will be only his 4th run this season so it’s possible he is still fit enough to do himself justice. The drying ground has gone against him though and there is still a doubt about the extra 3½ furlongs. However he has all but two of his rivals out of the handicap and he has to be respected in all staying chases.

MIKO DE BEAUCHENE 10-10 ~ Robert Alners 8yo gelding has been a real improver this season and ran an excellent race in the Welsh National to beat Halcon Genelardais. He followed that up with another win in a staying chase at Haydock when landing the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup. Switched to hurdles at the Cheltenham festival he ran a career best effort over timber in the Pertemps Final, over a trip considered short of his best. It was a fine performance to finish runner up to Ballyfitz, who went on to run well in the Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle at Aintree. He runs as if this trip should suit and he has proven form on good/soft ground so if he isn’t done for the season he is the one they all have to beat.

OPERA MUNDI 10-7 ~ Paul Nicholls trained so sure to get plenty of attention in the market and he has looked the sort to improve for a stiffer test of stamina. He was only stepped up to 3 miles at the beginning of the season and he reveled in the mud to beat Heez A Dreamer at Haydock. On form lines through that rival he needs to improve if he’s going to beat an in form Miko De Beauchene. The ground appears to have gone against him as well as all his best form has been in testing conditions. He was pulled up in good ground on his last start at Doncaster and he has plenty to prove at present.

OLD BENNY 10-0 ~ After several encouraging runs in novice chase’ he was stepped up to 4 miles in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham festival. He bounded up the hill to win in impressive fashion and looked like he could have gone around again. Extreme staying chases will definitely be his ball game and given he’s still quite young he looks to have a bright future in that sphere. However he was receiving weight from Over The Creek who finished 2nd in that race and 3rd in the Welsh National. That form leaves him with ground to find on both Halcon Genelardais and Miko De Beauchene. On the plus side though he’s progressive and is guaranteed to still be there at the finish given a clear round of jumping. He is only 2lbs out of the handicap and he has proven himself just as effective on all types of ground so he has to have a big chance.

PATSY HALL 10-0 ~ Trained by the handicap King Tony Martin and all his runners have to be respected in these big handicaps. As a novice he had beaten Aces Four by 9 lengths and given Cailin Alainn a good race at Leopardstown. However the wheels came off after those efforts. He returned to something like his best when finishing 4th in the William Hill Trophy at the Cheltenham festival. He was travelling well but after a mistake at the last he tired to finish 4th. Given his jockeys style of riding the horse probably appeared to be going better than he actually was and he didn’t exactly relish the challenge of the Cheltenham hill. He does look to have abundant reserves of stamina as was proven in the Hennessy when making a tired mistake 3 out which unshipped his jockey. Given the evidence it looks extremely unlikely that help enjoy this extreme test of stamina.

WILD CANE RIDGE 10-0 ~ Len Lungos grey is unbeaten in four starts at the Scottish track but this is easily his toughest assignment yet. However he has produced some sterling performances here and the combined distance of his four wins is 74 lengths. He was a very talented novice over hurdles but his early career over fences was blighted by jumping errors. They were still present on his first run this season at Haydock so connections switched him to hurdles. The blinkers were applied at Cheltenham where he produced a brave front running performance in a Pertemps Hurdle Qualifier. That showed he is capable of handling good ground as most of his best form had previously been in testing ground. He stays all day so the trip shouldn’t be a problem and if the blinkers help his jumping then he has a great chance.

MON MOME 10-0 ~ Ran here two years ago and Venetia Williams’ gelding was still going well enough when falling some way from home. He finished 2nd in the Welsh National behind Halcon Genelardais the following season but he hasn’t looked the same beast this season. A 10th finish in the Grand National is sure to have left its mark and he has plenty to prove at present.

KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-0 ~ Put up some 12lbs in the ratings for an authoritative victory in what was no more than an average staying handicap at Sandown. He handled the testing conditions better than his rivals that day so he should have loved the similar conditions at Warwick. However in a better race and was anchored by his rise in the handicap and he was well beaten. Connections then switched him to hurdles to take advantage of his lower handicap mark and he put up some respectable efforts. He didn’t take to the Cross County course at the festival so these regulation fences are likely to suit him better. However all his best form has been in testing conditions so the ground appears to have gone against him. He is forced to race on a career high mark being 6lbs out of the handicap so he had a lot against him and as he isn’t in the best of form at present.

FLINTOFF 10-0 ~ Will pop up at a huge price in one of these races one day so his supporters would do worse than back him blindly. All his best form had previously been in testing conditions but he ran a fine race in the Red Square Vodka chase behind Miko De Beauchene. He was the only horse to press him the winner all the way and for one moment he looked like he might go pass the eventual winner. However he didn’t appear to see out the race as well and there has to be doubts about his ability to stay the extra half mile. He is also 10lbs worse off given that he has to race out of the handicap and when trying 4 miles in the Midland National he was pulled up. He was a distant 6th in the Irish National so he needs to improve if he’s going to win today.

OPENIDE 10-0 ~ Another inconsistent animal but he was on a going day when finishing 2nd in the Kim Muir at the festival. He stayed on well over the extended 3 miles giving hope that a step up in trip should suit. He had already tried 3½ miles in the Porterstown but the ground had gone against him and given his inconsistency he may have not been on a good day. He had been a decent novice so he has the ability and if the step up in trip suits as it should do he could run a big race from out of the handicap. Given his size he will appreciate his light weight and the drying ground has definitely gone in his favour.

PHILSON RUN 10-0 ~ Regularly outpaced on good ground so it appears he needs testing conditions to slow down the opposition and turn the race into a really stamina test. The cliché he stays all day was tailor made for the Nick Williams 12yo so todays extreme trip isn’t a concern. He was a well beaten 6th in this race two years ago in similar conditions and given he isn’t getting any younger it looks likely a similar position is the best connections can hope for.

TOMMY SPAR 10-0 ~ The yard have been out of form all year and this trip doesn’t look likely to suit given all the gelding best form has been over 2½ miles. From 10lbs out of the handicap the 8yo is hard to fancy.

OSSMOSES 10-0 ~ All the greys best form has been in testing conditions and he likes it when the mud is flying. So todays conditions look to have gone against the 11yo gelding. On the plus side he stays and jumps well so he is sure to run his race. He made an encouraging reappearance at Newcastle and he should come on for the run. If returning to the form he showed two seasons ago he must have a chance and he was running on a mark only 3lbs lower than he carries today from 11lbs out of the handicap. He definitely has chances but he wasn’t the same horse last season so he has questions to answer but he comes into the race as a fresh horse.

IRISH WOLF 10-0 ~ Rated 152 over hurdles so he shouldn’t be inconvenienced on a mark of 143 if able to produce his hurdles form over the larger obstacles. However he hasn’t looked the same beast over the steeplechase obstacles and he seems to have been affected by the poor form of the yard more than most. He has plenty to prove at present but he could provide a shock when his stable bounce back to form.

LEADING MAN 10-0 ~ Ferdy Murphy has a fine record in this race and he managed a 1-2 last year but he was in excellent form at the time. He hadn’t had a winner for a month till Supreme Builder won at Kelso last week. Three Mirrors winning yesterday gives some hope that the yard are back in the swing of things. If that’s the case then the stables runners are always worth particular attention. As for Leading Man he’s had a breathing operation which combined with the application of both cheekpieces and a tongue tie has bought around some improvement. After a decent 2nd at Wetherby he proved his ability to stay 4 miles in a Doncaster staying chase. It can’t be emphasised enough though that this is a much tougher race but he could still be open to some improvement. Given he is 13lbs out of the handicap he will have to but his trainer is a dab hand at improving horses and this looks it’s been the aim all season.

NOIT ET VERT 10-0 ~ Well documented the fact that Ferdy Murphy has aimed this horse at this race all season. He made his seasonal debut at the Cheltenham festival when finishing 4th in the Kim Muir (Openide 2nd) but he is sure to come on a lot for the run. On his final run last season he finished a short head behind American Jennie who had just finished 3rd in the Irish National. This trip is an unknown but he stayed 3m3f in testing ground as a novice and he is a much better horse on good ground. So the drying conditions have really been to his advantage unlike many of his rivals. He would be better suited if he wasn’t 13lbs out of the handicap but he has the potential to be a top staying chaser and although he’s not running off 143 now he will be at some point. Having only had one run this season he comes here fresh and ready to run the race of his life against horses that have already been to the well plenty of times this season.

DUNBRODY MILLAR 10-0 ~ Shown absolutely nothing in 6 runs this season and after pulling up Topham Chase he faces an almost impossible task for his out of form trainer. He stays 3½ miles and prefers good ground so the conditions are in his favour but he really needs to turn around his recent form. He doesn’t appeal as a betting proposition until showing otherwise.

ROYAL ROSA 10-0 ~ Howard Johnsons 9yo has never been the same horse since injury but he showed some encouraging signs at the beginning of this season. He finished 3rd in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle but he couldn’t reproduce that form. Given that all his best form since returning from injury has been early in the season it’s sensible to suggest that he doesn’t take his racing well anymore. He didn’t stay 4 miles in his last two starts and he can be readily passed over from so far out of the handicap.

AZULEJO 10-0 ~ Michael Scudamore has plenty of horses who have shown decent form in France but are currently tip toeing passed the glue factor. The 10yo has shown nothing in this country to suggest he can be competitive in todays race.

MODEL SON 10-0 ~ Arguably his best performance came in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup Chase when getting thumped 15 lengths by Ossmoses. Two years and three trainers latter he sees himself with Paul Blockley who really hasn’t been able to get the horse back to his best in three runs. He pulled up on his debut for his new yard at Cheltenham but put a better effort in when 4th in the Midlands National. He didn’t get anywhere near the eventual winner Himalayan Trail and he didn’t look like he stayed the 4 miles. He is so far out of the handicap that he runs today on a career highest mark and at 10 he isn’t likely to be improving so little hope that he’s capable of winning this race.

ANOTHER RUM 10-0 ~ Regular fixture in this race and his best effort came in 2005 when finishing 3rd well behind the winner Joes Edge. He was well beaten when 12th last year and there is little to think from 25lbs out of the handicap he can win the race for the first time.

IRIS DE BALME 10-0 ~ Stays this far after winning the Kent National which is hardly a prestigious race but just another county with a ‘National’. The handicapper put him up 9lbs in the handicap and on his new mark he couldn’t defy the handicap and only finished 3rd in the Somerset National. He looked a little unlucky as he travelled well through the race but was worried out of it late on. He could have been an interesting each way angle in the race if actually in the handicap proper but from 26lbs out of the handicapper he is hard to fancy.

STRONG RESOLVE 10-0 ~ Grand old servant who appears to be holding his form well for a 12yo. However he faces an almost impossible task to win this race from miles out of the handicap. His highest career winning mark is some 20lbs lower than he carries today.

IN THE LOOP 10-0 ~ 31lbs out of the handicap but given his performance last time out at Down Royal he has a decent chance. In a conditions race over 3m2f he beat both Dun Doire and Point Barrow on level weights. They are rated 137 and 139 respectively so he probably deserves a mark of 143 on the bare form. Not hard to knock that form though given the recent fortunes of those two rivals but on their day they are both high class staying chasers. This is a lot tougher and he had been comfortably beaten in the Ulster National over 3½ miles before his Down Royal win. An interesting runner but this is a tougher assignment and on the little evidence available he doesn’t look like he’ll stay this far.

CONCLUSION

Shortlist includes Halcon Genelardais, Miko De Beauchene, Old Benny, Wild Cane Ridge, Openide, Ossmoses, Leading Man, Noit Et Vert, In The Loop.

Halcon Genelardais isn’t sure to reverse Welsh National form with Miko De Beauchene on this ground and over the extra third of a mile. Ossmoses has to prove he is still the same horse who won the Red Square Vodka Chase at Haydock. Coming back from injury is always a concern but given all his best form has been in testing conditions it seems the ground have gone against the grey. In The Loop isn’t guaranteed stay and this is much tougher than the Down Royal race where he beat an out of form pair. Leading Man is likely to improve for this challenge but he looks to be the second string and doesn’t have the scope of Noir Et Vert.

That leaves an elite five of Miko De Beauchene, Old Benny, Wild Cane Ridge, Openide and Noir Et Vert.

Old Benny has to be respected after his success in the National Hunt Chase but he was receiving weight from the eventual 2nd Over The Creek who was well beaten by Miko De Beauchene in the Welsh National. Noir Et Vert is respected due to connections and he looked to be a horse with a future at the end of last season. However this is completely different challenge to what he has faced before and it remains to be seen how he fancies the extra mile. If Miko De Beauchene is still fresh enough to do himself justice then he must rate as the most likely winner. His performances in the Welsh National and Red Square Vodka Gold Cup suggest he’ll only improve for the step up to 4 miles. He has run well on good to soft ground and connections are walking the course to see if the ground is suitable. If they don’t think it is he’ll be withdrawn so that is less of a worry than it might have been. As one of only three horses not running outside of the handicap he looks the one they all have to beat. Wild Cane Ridge is sure to run his race given his fine record at the track and if the blinkers help his jumping then he has a great chance of winning the race as he stays and will go in the conditions. Openide looks the ideal type to excel stepped up to extreme distances as the way he finished off his race in the Kim Muir was quite taking. He was a Grade 3 winning novice so he is a talented horse so if putting it all in today on ground he loves he has a good chance of running a career best effort.

2pt WIN – MIKO DE BEAUCHENE @  9.0
1pt EACH WAY – OPENIDE @ 20/1
1pt EACH WAY – WILD CANE RIDGE @ 16/1

RESULT

MIKO DE BEAUCHENE  Pulled Up = -2pts
OPENIDE 8th = -2pts
WILD DANE RIDGE Pulled Up = -2pts