GOODWOOD

2:50 DAVID WILSON HOMES STAKES (REGISTERED AS THE COCKED HAT STAKES) (LISTED RACE) (COLTS & GELDINGS) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m3f

CITY LEADER 9-5 ~ Brian Meehans runners this year have invariably needed the run so despite a disappointing showing in the Group 3 Craven Stakes his followers shouldn’t lose the faith yet. That was a high class event as well so no real disgrace in finishing 6th but it does raise questions about whether the colt has trained on or not. He was reported to have coughed post race so if he has recovered he could bounce back to the form he showed last season. As a juvenile he won the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes after chasing home Raven’s Pass in the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown. His finest effort came arguably in the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy when finishing 2nd behind Ibn Khaldun but that has turned out to be a relatively weak renewal of that prestigious 2yo race. On breeding this trip looks sure to be a furlong or two too far as his sire Fasliyev only really has horses that stay up to a mile. There is some stamina on the mares side and the trainer believes he’ll be more than a mile horse so there is hope. His run in the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy is the best piece of form on offer but there are serious doubts he’ll be able to reproduce a similarly good effort over todays trip.

SCINTILLO 9-5 ~ Winner of the Group 1 Gran Criterium in Italy on his final start as a juvenile but he had a busy season last year. He looks to have been feeling the effects this year as he doesn’t appear to have trained on after two poor runs, abet in two high class races. There is plenty of stamina on the sires side but not on the mares and the horse has been given an entry in the Group 1 St James Palace Stakes over a mile rather than any future middle distance races. He has to carry his penalty for his Group win and there looks to be plenty of questions to answer. He has also run two poor races here before and he it isn’t hard to look elsewhere.

SIBERIAN TIGER 9-3 ~ Been outpaced in two starts since his return from running in the Dubai Carnival this winter. He had shown good pace in the final furlong when winning a Listed event at Pontefract as a juvenile but no signs of that this term. He was probably flattered visually but his win at Pontefract considering he had to be stoked along some way out and took an age to produce his effort. He has looked outclassed in tougher company this year and his future probably lies in handicaps once his mark drops a couple of lbs.

SAVARAIN 9-0 ~ Broke his maiden over 1½ miles at this track last time out so no concerns over the trip and track. That race was run at a slow pace and a similar scenario looks highly likely so the turn of foot he showed last time should hold him in good steed. Difficult to know the true worth of that event but he beat a couple of horses with Derby entries and the way he idled and held his head in the final furlong suggests he’ll only improve for the experience. One of only two horses in this race entered in the Derby so he’ll need to show an improved effort to warrant a run in the Classic. Given how well his trainer can improve horses though that improvement can’t be ruled out. He raced against the favourite Whistledownwind last season but the soft ground would have neutralised his tactical pace and back on faster ground he’ll be seen to better effect. His seasonal reappearance can also be forgiven considering he was said to be badly in need of the run. Although he has yet to race outside of maiden company he looks progressive and has ideal race conditions unlike many of his rivals.

TOP LOCK 9-0 ~ Wasn’t given a hard time once beaten in the Group 3 Sandown Classic Trial last time out when beaten by Centennial (Whistledownwind 2nd). Was being ridden a long way from home however and in todays race when the emphasis will be on speed rather than stamina he is unlike to be suited by the set-up of the race. That was only his 2nd career run so open to plenty of improvement but he’ll struggle to reverse the form with Whistledownwind.

WHISTLEDOWNWIND 9-0 ~ Made his seasonal reappearance in the Group 3 Sandown Trial when only just beaten by Centennial who got first run on him. He looks a deserved favourite given he is sure to come on for that run but one reason why the eventual winner got first run on him however was that he looked to be lacking that tactical pace. Todays race has no confirmed pacesetter and it could be a tactical affair which isn’t sure to suit. He also isn’t entered at Epsom because the track is said to be unlikely to suit the big colt so there must be serious doubts about his ability to handle the undulations of Goodwood.

CONCLUSION

With no obvious pacesetter it may prove fruitful to back a horse with a tactical speed. Whistledownwind and Top Lock look too slow so can be taken on despite showing some good form at Sandown. Scintillo doesn’t look to have trained on but followers of City Leader shouldn’t jump ship after a poor reappearance. However with his penalty he may just have to give way to Luca Cumanis course winner Savarain. There looks plenty of improvement in him and as he showed last time he has a decent turn of foot.

1pt WIN – SAVARAIN @ 6/1

RESULT

SAVARAIN 6th = -1pt