NEWMARKET

4:40 BUY HORSES AT RE-OFFER.COM HANDICAP (CLASS 3) (4yo+,0-90) 1m4f

CANDLE 9-4 ~ Won a hot little handicap at Goodwood on her final start of last season and on the bare form of that race she would have to have a chance in todays race. However as fine as a performance it was todays race is a different ball game. Henry Candys 5yo mare isn’t a quick horses and she really needs soft ground to be seen to full effect. She has encountered firm ground twice before and she has run below par on both occasions. The handicapper has also put her up 8lbs for her win last time out and she lines up today off the back of a 7 month break so also has to prove her fitness. Plenty of reasons to take her on today but one to look out for on soft ground latter on in the season.

MASLAK 9-3 ~ Formerly trained by Ed Dunlop but since moving to Peter Hiatt the In The Wings colt has only finished outside the first 3 four times in 16 starts. Apart from being consistent the 4yo has been progressing this year and after racking up 5 wins on the all weather this winter he put in a career best effort on the flat last time out at Chester. He recorded his first triumph on the turf after leading going into the final furlong and holding off all challengers before the line. The 2nd and 3rd haven’t done anything for the form but the 4th Inspirina ran well at Haydock yesterday. He’s on a 4lbs higher mark today and this will be a tougher race but he is consistent, in-form and progressive so not without a chance of finishing in the first three.

MAD RUSH 9-2 ~ Clearly the piece of form that jumps out of the page is the close 2nd behind Hi Calypso in a Salisbury handicap. Luca Cumanis colt was giving away 4lbs and as he only lost by a short head he emerged as the best horse in the race. Given what the Sir Michael Stoute horse has gone on to achieve Mad Rush has to be taken very seriously. The 3rd Eglevski has done nothing for the form since but he had previously run well in a decent York handicap and he was well put in his place by the front two. It could be of course that Mad Rush is either a potential Group horse or that Hi Calypso is just a massive improver and given her trainer that isn’t out of the question. Whatever the answer Mad Rush definitely looks to have a future and is unlikely to be a 88 rated horse at the end of the season. He has to be given maximum respect in todays handicap but he could be vulnerable first time out and all his best form has been with some cut in the ground. The yard hasn’t been firing on all cylinders lately and despite his obvious class there are still some questions he has to answer.

MIKAO 9-1 ~ Runs well when fresh so the 7 month absence from the track shouldn’t be too much of a concern. However the horses form at the back end of last season is as he was very poor. He’s dropping down the handicap which will help but he is now 7 so isn’t going to improve and he’ll probably have to if he’s going to win.

SHELA HOUSE 8-13 ~ Unable to break his maiden in four attempts but a switch to handicap company proved fruitful as the horse laughed at his handicap mark of 76. The handicapper put him up 6lbs after winning that Windsor handicap by 3½ lengths but in three subsequent starts he’s looked held. He ran well on his first run over this trip at Windsor last time but it wasn’t a great race and he is looking decidedly average. Lightly raced so he could improve but he has to considerably.

OLLIE GEORGE 8-13 ~ Progressive individual and something of a dark horse after his fine 5th in a competitive Newmarket Heritage Handicap. He has about two lengths to find with Mikao but that rival seems to have lost all his form whereas Ollie George could still have scope for improvement. He suffered a problem after that race so wasn’t seen out again last season so was sure to be in need of the run when making his reappearance at Bath. It was an encouraging reappearance and it should have him spot on for today and with the trip and ground ideal he is sure to run a big race. He has to improve to win but he was progressive last season and it isn’t ridiculous to think he hasn’t stopped yet.

RAJEH 8-12 ~ Ran a fine race on his British flat debut at York when chasing home Galactic Star and Dunaskin. That effort means he has to be respected in this weaker race and he ran a fine race on his reappearance. He only faded at the finish and ran as if he would come on for the run. Before that he was last seen over hurdles when pulling up with a breathing problem. It’s logical to think horse has been given a breathing operation and if the problem has been fixed he could run a big race. He had shown improved form over timber so no unreasonable to think he could transfer that improvement back on the flat. He is on the same handicap mark that he carried at York so and the fast ground shouldn’t be a concern so everything looks in place for the horse to run a fine race.

PRINCE SABAAH 8-10 ~ Still a maiden on the turf after 14 starts but he has run some fine races in defeat so it is only a matter of time before he records his first victory on grass. His close 2nd behind Birkside last time was a fine effort after three below par runs this term. The front two pulled clear of the pace but it wasn’t a great race and this is tougher. He doesn’t look to have masses of improvement in him and although likely to run his race he is sure to find at least a couple too good.

KNOW THE LAW 8-7 ~ First time blinkers did the trick when finally breaking his maiden after 8 runs and several near misses. He was a consistent sort last year and seemed equally effective on the turf as the all weather. However after winning the blinkers didn’t appear to work again and interesting that connections persevere with the headgear. He doesn’t appear to hold any secrets from the handicapper though and he has his fitness to prove after a break. Little in the form book to suggest he’ll be able to be competitive in a race such as this so readily passed on.

PUNJABI 8-4 ~ A reasonable handicapper on the flat for Geraldine Rees two seasons ago but he has come on leaps and bounds since then. He finished 4th in the Triumph Hurdle in his novice season under rules before improving again this winter to finish 3rd in the Champion Hurdle and 1st in the Punchestown festival Champion Hurdle. Over jumps he always looked like a horse with plenty of pace and is arguably suited better by tracks like Aintree and Punchestown. Although he was a miler on the flat a mile and a half shouldn’t be an inconvenience and as the handicapper still has him on a mark of 75 from two years ago so he looks potentially thrown in. Nicky Henderson is more than capable with the horses he runs on the flat and he is sure to have already lined up a valuable handicap latter on in the season at somewhere like Royal Ascot. If that is the case then the horse has to move up the ratings so he can secure his place in such races. He can only really do this by winning races and he should be fit from his hurdling campaign. Conditions look ideal and everything looks in place for a big run from real Group 1 jumper.

CONCLUSION

Not hard to realise that this race revolves around the two horses at the head of the market. It’s highly likely that Mad Rush and Punjabi will end the season rated far higher than the 88 and 75 rated performers they are today. Mad Rush could make up into a Group horse and Luca Cumani is sure to have grand plans for this son of the Lemon Drop Kid. However the trainer is sure to have one eye on the future and so he may need the run. The ground could also prove firmer than ideal and he may struggle to concede almost a stone to Punjabi. Punjabi is fit from hurdling and connections make sure the horse is primed to win today so the horse can start moving up the ratings. On his current mark of 75 he’ll struggle to get into any top handicaps but a couple of wins will allow connections a shot at some valuable handicaps latter on in the season. He has ideal conditions and must surely be thrown in off a mark of 75 so could prove hard to beat.

1pt WIN – PUNJABI @ 9/4

RESULT

PUNJABI 1st = +2.25