LEOPARDSTOWN

7:30 SEAMUS & ROSEMARY MCGRATH MEMORIAL SAVAL BEG STAKES (LISTED RACE) (4yo+) 1m6f

RED MOLONEY 9-4 ~ Multiple Listed winner over a variety of trip but todays ground looks a concern as despite winning his maiden on good/firm he disappointed on a similar surface at Galway last season. It could have been the idiosyncratic nature of the track but it does raise a concern. His form this season has been very encouraging but he was probably a little flattered to finish so close to Yeats who patiently wasn’t fit and won despite looked badly in need of the run. The close proximity of the 3rd and 4th Alfie Fits and Nick’s Nikita probably shows the true value of the form. Still in this grade that is still good form and he has to enter calculations despite the fact he is conceding 3lbs to the field.

BAHRAIN STORM 9-1 ~ One of the better Irish novice hurdlers two seasons ago and he managed to finish 3rd in the Punchestown Grade 1 Champion 4-Y-O Hurdle behind Punjabi. He has struggled some what in his second season as a hurdler but that isn’t unusual and he has continued to progress on the flat. He probably found 1¼ miles too sharp at Cork but stepped up to 2 miles Clonmel last time he recorded a cosy 5 length victory in a fair handicap. The handicapper has raised the gelding 12lbs so Listed events are the next logical step for connections. He looks an interesting outsider but he’ll need to improve again if he’s going to win.

EZIMA 9-1 ~ Progressive 3yo last season and she managed a couple of impressive wins in Listed company. The turn of foot she showed when winning both of those decent events was visually impressive and enabled her to comfortably open up half a dozen odd lengths on the chasing pack. Her final run of the season at Dundalk is best forgotten as she looked like she’d had enough for the season and ran well below form. Her reappearance this season in the Group 3 Mooresbridge Stakes was encouraging considering many of Jim Bolgers horses have been improving considerably for the run and the ground would have been softer than ideal. Todays trip is also likely to be far more suitable despite the fact she has yet to run over further than 1½ miles. On her last two starts over 1½ miles she has been staying on strongly at the finish and the Sadler’s Wells filly doesn’t look short of stamina. With the run under her belt and with ideal conditions there looks plenty of room for further improvement. She looked like a pattern company performer last year and there is little doubt it will be sooner rather than latter that she’ll be winning Group races and this is a good stepping stone.

HASANKA 9-1 ~ John Oxx trained 4yo filly who would have found the trip on her reappearance too short in the Group 3 Mooresbridge Stakes. It was still a decent enough effort and it should put her spot on to continue the progression she showed at the end of last season. She looked a filly with a bright future when winning a hot Listed race at Galway on her final start last year. Ezima and Red Moloney were 2nd and 3rd respectively and both have improved since and the nature of track means sometimes the form doesn’t travel well. Ezima though looks sure to reverse the form over the extra two furlongs and connections of Hasanka did confirm that good/firm is as fast as she wants so with todays ground possibly being even firmer it has to be a negative. She has to be on the shortlist but she has to improve if she’s going to win.

KALDERON 9-1 ~ Consistent performer and as a result the 8yo gelding is well exposed. He has been in decent nick of late but he needs a career best effort to win and against younger less exposed flat specialist he looks likely to struggle.

MERVEILLES 9-1 ~ No more than an average hurdler and his win on the flat last time was arguably a career best effort in either sphere. Off the back of a 6 month break the horse was very slowly away and despite losing almost 8 lengths he still ran away with the race by 4½ lengths. That was a very encouraging effort and marked him down as a horse to follow next time out. However this Listed event is much tougher and with several established Listed performers in the line up he need to improve again just to challenge for a place. He should have no problem with todays trip and as a real fast ground horse he is one of the more interesting outsiders.

MUTAKARRIM 9-1 ~ Dermot Welds 11yo hasn’t won a Listed race for 7 years but he finished 2nd in this race last year. To be fair though he couldn’t live with Yeats and barring the 1/7 favourite this is much tougher renewal so he’ll struggle to repeat the finishing position. He emerged as the best horse in the race at the weights on his reappearance when chasing home Merveilles but he could struggle to reverse the form on level weights if that rival makes a level break at the start. The 11yo is still holding his form well enough but he is vulnerable to some younger less exposed rivals so is passed over.

SCOTCH BONNET 8-12 ~ Lowest rated of these but at the weights she has a chance of beating the gelding Kalderon. She was well beaten behind Red Moloney last time out on her Irish debut and with the benefit of race fitness she might close the gap but there is little hope of her reversing the form. The French import wasn’t anything special on the flat in her homeland and she is likely to struggle over in Ireland until she drops down the ratings.

CONCLUSION

The race revolves around the front three in the market which doesn’t take a lot of form study but they all are unexposed and progressive.
Red Moloney might not appreciate this firm ground which is a major doubt considering her best form has come with give in the ground. Todays surface is rattling firm and so preference is for Jim Bolgers Ezima. Ezima was beaten by Hasanka at Galway but she has progressed since then and the extra two furlongs look likely to suit her beater than the John Oxx rival. The firm ground also looks fine and this looks a good stepping stone onto better things latter on in the season.

1pt WIN – EZIMA @ 3/1

RESULT

EZIMA 1st = + 3pts