BATH

4:40 EUROPEAN BREEDERS' FUND LANSDOWN FILLIES' STAKES (LISTED RACE) (FILLIES & MARES) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 5f

RIPPLES MAID 9-4 ~ Exposed 5yo mare for Jonathan Geake who was far from consistent last season. On a going day though she can be very effective as she showed when winning a competitive Newmarket sprint handicap and a Listed race at Pontefract last year. This year she spent the winter racing in Dubai so she should have been fit enough to have no excuses when running in the Listed Cammidge Trophy on the Lincoln card. She finished 6th well adrift of the principles but given that this is a far weaker Listed event chances are that she’ll record an improved finishing position. However todays trip looks a big concern given she looks to need every yard over 6f. She hasn’t run over the minimum trip for two years when she was a 3yo. After winning a weak maiden on the all weather she ran as if the trip was too short in a Nottingham handicap. She’ll appreciate any rain and the likely strong pace will play to her strengths but giving away her 4lbs penalty makes life tougher.

CARNINETTO 9-0 ~ Put in a career best effort in December when finishing 2nd in a 7f Listed race at Kempton. It was a weak event though and Paul Evans’ mare has struggled since in a number of handicaps on the all weather. She has won over course and distance though so not without hope but little else to get excited about.

DARK MISSILE 9-0 ~ Stepped up from handicap company into Group class last season and she was unfortunate not to win the Group 2 Diadem Stakes at Ascot when beaten only a short head. Returning this season at Newmarket in the Listed Abernant Stakes she finished 3rd in the group of 4 who pulled clear of the field so she has definitely returned this season in fine form. Given that was her first run since travelling to the States last October so is sure to be fitter for that effort. Also Andrew Balding has been in fine nick so far this season and Dark Missile looks a solid favourite in this company. However all her recent form has been over 6f so the step down in trip is a bit of a concern given she is likely to go at prohibited odds.

DAY BY DAY 9-0 ~ Progressive sprinter for Brian Meehan last season and she was far from disgraced at Hamilton when making the step up from handicap to pattern company. The ground can be blamed for her shocking run at Newmarket on her last start so she wouldn’t want any rain. 5f on fast ground appears to be ideal conditions but she will need to step up on all known form to figure in this competitive Filly & Mares Listed race.

MORINQUA 9-0 ~ Not may quicker horses than James Givens 4yo filly so she is sure to up there in the firing line from the start. She was a model of consistency last season and put in one fine performance after another in sprint handicaps. That was until disappointing big style in two Listed events at the back end of last season. However given that was at the end of a long hard season she can be forgiven those out of character performances. She made a winning start last season so she must be of interest now she has been freshened up for the new season.

SWEET AFTON 9-0 ~ Made an encouraging start for his new trainer when 4th in a decent sprint handicap at the beginning of last season. However that was the only decent effort the horse put in last season and he was well down the field in last years renewal of this race. Has bits and pieces of form when she was trained in Ireland to suggest she possesses enough ability it’s just whether her trainer can get it out of her. Hard to fancy at the minute though given she has finished nearer last that first in her last 5 runs but she is now in foal so that may rejuvenate her. If it does she isn’t without  a chance of running into a place on her best form.

TILLY’S DREAM 9-0 ~ In decent form but she will need to improve considerably to win today given she has been running in class 5 handicaps.

CAKE 8-8 ~ Richard Hannons filly finished 5th in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot and 3rd in the Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes as a juvenile last season. Her 2yo form means she has to be of interest but on her only run this season she was well beaten behind Stimulation at the Craven meeting. That was over 7f though so good chance she didn’t stay but it was still a little worrying. There is always the chance she hasn’t trained on over the winter. A drop down in trip and class is likely to suit so today she shouldn’t have any excuses now she has had a run under her belt. The stable has made a really good start to the season so everything looks to be in her favour, it’s just whether she has trained on or not that is the key.

DUBAI PRINCESS 8-4 ~ Well thought of by connections last season but she didn’t really live up to expectations. After finishing 10th in the Group 1 Cheverley Park Stakes she was dropped down in trip at Ascot when finishing 6th in the Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes. She finished about 1½ lengths behind Cake and today has a 4lbs pull so could have a chance on the bare form of reversing the placings. However Cake didn’t get the clearest of runs so if she has trained on Dubai Princess is unlikely to reverse the form. However she goes well fresh and is well regarded so she could be capable of more now she’s a year older.

EDGE OF GOLD 8-4 ~ Broke her maiden on the third attempt and then won a sales race at HQ. Was a well beaten favourite off a mark of 79 in a nursery on her final run of the season but that was too bad to be true. Well worth keeping the faith but this Listed event looks like connections are aiming too high. She will need to improve by some 20lbs if she is going to win today and as this is her first run in 6 months she may also need to run.

LOCH JIPP 8-4 ~ Listed winner over 5f as a juvenile but more than coped with the extra furlong in the Group 2 Cherry Hinton Stakes. Ran a fine race to finish 4th behind You’resothrilling which was arguably her best effort last year. Her 4th behind Visit in the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes was another decent effort and although on the bare form she has plenty to find on the form with Reel Gift that rival was racing on the better ground. She struggled in another couple of pattern races but she was such a large scopey filly she is sure to do well as a 3yo if filling out. Interesting considering she could well make up into a better 3yo now she has had time to grow and one to watch in both the market and the paddock.

MASADA 8-4 ~ Lightly raced filly having only had two career starts and the first came over course and distance when breaking her maiden. Stepped up in class and trip at Sandown she didn’t appear to see out the extra furlong as well as she might and so the step back to the minimum trip may see her in better light. She has about 3 lengths to make up on Dubai Princess though but given how lightly raced she is and she may prove better back down in trip she may be able to get closer to that rival. However the yards second string on jockey bookings and considerably improvement needed in this company.

REEL GIFT 8-4 ~ Fine 2nd in the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes behind Visit but Richard Hannons 3yo filly hasn’t managed to reproduce that level of form since. Given she raced on a different strip of ground to the rest of the field the suspicion is she had the advantage of racing on better ground. She has a serious chance today if the form of that effort can be taken at face value and she can produce a similar performance. However she has done nothing in her last 4 starts to suggest she will and the yards second string on jockey bookings.

CONCLUSION

The drop down in trip is a concern for Ripples Maid and the favourite Dark Missile. Andrew Baldings favourite is the clear pick on the form but he isn’t averse to running the odd stinker and it may prove wise to find an each way angle into the race. Brian Meehans Day By Day has to improve to figure and would appreciate faster ground. That also applies to Sweet Afton who would have chances on her best form and looks a huge price. Everything should be in Morinqua favour though and she was an ultra consistent performer last year. She goes well fresh and could prove hard to catch from the front.
All of the 3 year olds are interesting in one way or another but the obvious one has to be Cake who was a very capable juvenile and must have serious chances on her form last season. However her run last time out was a concern and she has to prove she has trained on.

1pt EACH WAY – MORINQUA @ 8/1
0.5 pts EACH WAY – SWEET AFTON @ 100/1

RESULT

MORINQUA 1st = + 9.6pys
SWEET AFTON 3rd = + 9.5pts