CURRAGH

3:50 DUBAI DUTY FREE IRISH DERBY (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) (3yo) 1m4f

ALESSANDRO VOLTA 9-0 ~ Didn’t handle the track when winning the Lingfield Derby Trial but in the Derby he didn’t appear to have any problems with the cambers of Epsom when finishing 6th. He didn’t get the clearest of runs though and was third last going past the three furlong pole. He ran on well at the finish though and probably would have finished 5th but for slight interference from Doctor Freemantle in the final few yards. He wouldn’t have reached the front two but it gives connections hope that back on a more conventional track he could reverse form with Casual Conquest given a clear run. Johnny Murtagh looks to be on the right one and he should be challenging for a place at the finish.

BASHIKIROV 9-0 ~ Front running duties in the Derby and his role today will be to ensure a good pace for his stable companions.

CASUAL CONQUEST 9-0 ~ A great bull of a horse he made his seasonal reappearance in the Group 2 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes. He showed a good turn of foot to win in impressive fashion and on that evidence he was sent off favourite for the Derby. In the Derby he ran a great race to finish 3rd on only his third career run and he is sure to improve for the experience. He was only about half a length behind Tartan Bearer going into the final furlong but he just didn’t have the pace of the front two and was left for dead inside the final furlong. He did have the run of the race somewhat being prominent off the steady pace and if today’s race is run at a faster pace it’s difficult to see how he can reverse form with Tartan Bearer who is a stout stayer. He has to show considerable improvement to win today but he is lightly raced and a return to Ireland might help. However if the pace is stronger today than it was at Epsom his jockey maybe more worried about the rivals that finished behind him at Epsom rather than Tartan Bearer. I’m not convinced he’ll prove the main danger to the favourite and at the prices he looks rather skinny.

CENTENNIAL 9-0 ~ His 2nd in the Group 3 Prix Thomas Bryon at Saint-Cloud last season looked very promising form given he was only two lengths behind Andre Fabre’s Thewayyouare. That rival was 2nd favourite in the Derby betting over the winter but the wheels have fallen off some what since and the same can be said of Centennial. He made a winning reappearance in the Group 3 Sandown Classic Trial but he only just managed to beat an average field. Next time out in the Group 2 Dante he was comfortably put in his place by Tartan Bearer. The ground may not have been ideal at York but it hard to see how he could reverse for with Sir Michael Stoute’s colt given he has since improved. The easier ground and the step up in trip should suit but John Gosden’s son of Dalakhani looks very one paced and something like the St Leger may prove more up his street. Against the top mile and a half colts he looks sure to come up short but he could pull on into a poor third.

CURTAIN CALL 9-0 ~ Seems ideally suited by a small field but that wasn’t the main reason for his disappointing run at Epsom as he simply didn’t handle the track. He looked a danger at one point but the horse was hanging down the camber and throwing his head around so that effort is best forgiven. In fact the way he ranged up to look a menace was encouraging and at today’s more conventional track he could prove the most likely danger to the favourite. He still has to prove he can stay the trip however which is a worry but he is bred to and has shaped like a middle distance colt. It’s hard to see how he could reverse form with Tartan Bearer but he has a chance of bridging to gap to Casual Conquest.

FROZEN FIRE 9-0 ~ Only finished a head behind Tartan Bearer when 2nd on his reappearance in the Group 2 Dante Stakes at York. He then went into the Derby with realistic chances of taking a hand in the finish and he tracked his Dante conquer Tartan Bearer into the straight. However he was left for dead by the eventual 2nd and he didn’t appear to have any excuses having dealt with the track better than most. He looked very one paced up the straight and where as Tartan Bearer has improved since the Dante Frozen Fire hasn’t. His dam was sired by the bloodstock equivalent of blood poisoning in Woodman and his sire is Montjeu so it’s likely that he has his own ideas about the game. He sweated up badly before the Dante and it may be a good sign that he is up for the challenge so look at the colt in the prelims. The Dante form is probably a little misleading with Tartan Bearer having improved considerably in the Derby and Twice Over scoping badly post race. There is a big question mark hanging over Frozen Fire at the moment but if he is an inconsistent colt and his Dante 2nd can be taken at face value then he is a lively dark horse.

HINDU KUSH 9-0 ~ Pummeled into the ground by Casual Conquest in the Group 2 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes and only won a Listed event at the Curragh last time because he had the run of the race. Way out of his depth here and he is likely to be used only as another pacemaker.

NEW APPROACH 9-0 ~ Non-runner

TARTAN BEARER 9-0 ~ Shown considerable improvement with every start so far this season and a typical progressive Sir Michael Stoute horse. The way he and New Approach pulled clear of the Derby field was very impressive and the further they went the better he ran. Both colts looked head and shoulders above the rest of the field that day and it’s difficult to see how any of today’s rivals could reverse the form with the favourite. Conditions are ideal and unless he gets badly boxed in or doesn’t run his race for some reason he looks like the most likely winner.

UPTON GREY 9-0 ~ Only won a maiden so far in 8 racecourse visits and has been beaten in handicaps off marks in the 80s. Was surely in the race as only a pacemaker for New Approach as they both would have carried the same owner’s colours.

WASHINGTON IRVING 9-0 ~ Improved with each run so far this season and the one time Ballydoyle main Derby hope is heading in the right direction to justify expectations. He finished 5th and the best of the Ballydoyle challengers in the Derby but he appeared to have no excuses and that looks as good as he is. He lacked the pace to go with the leaders but he stayed on one pace all the way to the line and he looks an ideal candidate for the St Leger at the end of the season. He looks sure to run his race but it’s hard to see him reversing form with the likes of Casual Conquest and Tartan Bearer. He also looks vulnerable to those rivals who didn’t get the rub of the green at Epsom and prize money rather than a place looks likely.

WINCHESTER 9-0 ~ Stable mate of Casual Conquest and he had caught the eye when working with his stable companion before the Epsom Derby. He was well backed for a Listed race at the Curragh but didn’t have the run of the race and couldn’t reel back Hindu Kush. Despite not having the run of the race it would have had to beat that field to be considered for this race. He was next seen running at Royal Ascot in what many people like to call the Ascot Derby, the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes. He only managed to one beat one rival home and he’ll have to improve with astronomical proportions to figure in this tough race. The return to a sounder surface should help after running on firm ground the last twice but it takes a huge leap in faith to believe he can challenge the colts who lined up in the Derby.

CONCLUSION

Essentially a re-run of the Epsom Derby a couple of weeks ago and if Tartan Bearer runs his race he’ll prove very hard to beat. The main battle looks to be who will follow him home and I’m not convinced that Casual Conquest will finish in the first three given how he had the run of the race at Epsom but faded badly at the finish. The biggest dangers appear to be Alessandro Volta and Curtain Call who both didn’t get the rub of the green at Epsom. Curtain Call didn’t handle the track and Alessandro Volta lost his place turning in and came from the back to stay on well into 6th. Both look sure to appreciate a more conventional track and a stronger pace.
Still it will be very hard to peg back Tartan Bearer who looks a colt with a bright future at middle distances this season and is the class act in the field.

3pt WIN – TARTAN BEARER @ 11/10

RESULT

TARTAN BEARER 3rd = -3pts