NAD AL SHEBA

1:40 GODOLPHIN MILE (SPONSORED BY ETISALAT) (GROUP 2) (DIRT) (3yo+) 1m

(1) DON RENATO 9-0 ~ Winner of the Chilean 2000 Guineas three years ago he is now trained by the French born Stephane Chevalier and the 5yo has been racing over in Saudi Arabia. Hard to the fully evaluate the worth of his form from the Saudi capital but after being well beaten in a Group 1 over 1½m he ran well when dropped to todays distance of a mile. In that race he finished a close third behind last years Dubai World Cup 2nd Premium Tap. Probably wise not to get too excited about the form over a mile behind Premium Tap as that horse is better over further and it does look like he has regressed since last season. Don Renato is well drawn down by the rail and his trainer states the horse is in good form and they are hoping to at least finish in the prize money. He could be a dark horse if his form behind Premium Tap can be taken literately but the suspicion is it cannot and prize money is probably the best connections can hope for.

(2) WATCH WHAT HAPPENS 9-0 ~ This son of Stravinsky was previously trained by Andre Fabre until moving to Hong Kong at the end of his 3yo campaign. He won a handicap at Sha Tin at the beginning of this year in what has been described as “a very fast time”. His trainer seems bullish of his chances blaming his poor run over course and distance on the horse running too freely. He believes the horse will have a good chance if settling but considering how hard he pulled when finishing 10th behind Elusive Warning you have to assume he’ll do it again. All his previous form had been on turf so the dirt might not be to his liking and he can’t be backed with any confidence in this company.

(3) BLACKAT BLACKITTEN 9-0 ~ Won a Carlisle maiden for Gerald Butler in July of last year and progressed really well to finish the season by winning a Newmarket handicap by 4 lengths eased down. Soon snapped up by Godolphin he showed on his debut for his new connections that he was still heading in the right direction when winning a handicap on his dirt debut. Sent out again in handicap company he was saddled with a 9lbs higher mark but he defied the handicapper to record his second handicap win on the dirt. It wasn’t an easy win by any stretch of the imagination as his jockey was hard at work some way out and he only managed to get up in the final strides. Although not having it all his own way he still left the impression he won a little cosily and would definitely appreciate another couple of furlongs. Raised to a mark of 110 for that win handicaps are now a thing of the past and stepped up in company in the Group 3 Burj Nahaar he finished 2nd only half a length behind less fancied stable mate and todays rival Elusive Warning. He could be considered slightly unlucky in that race as he was denied a clear run for a few strides allowing the winner first run. An admiral sort he still appears to be improving and that may give him an edge over his stable mate.

(4) GREEN COAST 9-0 ~ Bolted up in a handicap over the extended 7 furlongs on his second start for new connections after leaving Godolphin last year. He was getting weight from most of the field though in what looked like a relatively poor race for the carnival. He was next seen out in the Group 3 Burj Nahaar where he was comfortably put in his place by the likes of Elusive Warning. He was hampered slightly on the turn in but it is unlikely it proved to be significant as the horse seemed to recover but was the outpaced down the straight. The Doug Watson trained son of Green Desert has to find somewhere in the region of 10 lengths if he is to trouble the principles so his chances look remote.

(5) HALKIN 9-0 ~ Started life with John Gosden but hadn’t managed to break his maiden in this country before he was sent packing to Bahrain where he proved a successful multiple Group winner over 1m-1¼m. He was off the track two years but came back at this years carnival to run a massive race in a handicap won by Blackat Blackitten. He proved that effort was no fluke with a fine 4th behind Jalil and to confirm himself as a consistent performer he finished a best of the rest 4th behind Elusive Warning in the Group 3 Burj Nahaar. He came into that race as with the 2nd lowest rating in the race but looked a danger briefly before tiring before the final furlong. Maybe it was the burden of my money that slowed his challenge but he hasn’t really gone through with what he has threatened to do in three starts on the dirt. He may not have shown that in the past but in this company the margins are fine and although he should run a good race he’s sure to find at least a couple too good in the closing stages.

(6) BRAVE TIN SOLDIER 9-0 ~ Former Ballydoyle inmate but he didn’t really train on from his juvenile days. His 5th in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes worked out extremely well so it must have been disappointing for connections to see him beat only 11 horses home in four starts as a 3yo. He hinted of a return to form when seen finishing 6th behind Elusive Warning for his new trainer Mike De Kock. His previous run over 6f on the turf in Dubai had held out little hope but his trainer has since stated that is best ignored due to the horse not being ready in time. He ran an encouraging race on his dirt debut as he was last turned for home before running on up the straight to be a never nearer 6th. His jockey couldn’t lay the horse up for a good position early as the horse seemed to lack early pace. However he used to ping the gates during his time on turf so he has early pace to get him a good position. If he can utilise this and get a good position early then combined with the 6 lengths improvement predicted by his trainer then he could have a good each way chance.

(7) ALEUTIAN 9-0 ~ 8 years old but looked as good as ever when running an excellent race behind Jalil on his seasonal reappearance. The application of an eye shield last year when then horse was with Doug Watson appears to have given the horse a second wind at his ripe old age. After his fine debut for his new trainer F Naas he has disappointed somewhat since but it could be that the horse needs to be ridden more positively. Interesting then that Johnny Murtagh is booked to take the ride as he was on board last year when the son of Zafonic was runner-up in the 3rd round of the Maktoum Challenge. However it’s more than likely he’ll be outclassed in this field and will find at least a couple too good.

(8) DIAMOND STRIPES 9-0 ~ American trained 5yo who ran consistently well in Graded company in the states last year. Performances of particular note include finishing 3rd in the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes at Saratoga and 3rd in the Grade 2 Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs. In the latter he was beaten 3 lengths by A P Arrow but he was conceding 5 lbs with that rival who lines up in the World Cup later on in the card. His only poor run last year came on the sloppy Monmouth Park track during the Breeders Cup. So it was an out of character performance when a disappointing 4th at Santa Anita when sent off favourite. If he can bounce again to form and he takes to the Nad Al Sheba track then he could prove a major player.

(9) GOLDEN ARROW 9-0 ~ Formerly with Dermot Weld this son of Danehill managed to get within 2 lengths of George Washington in the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh. That was followed up with a fine 5th in the Irish 2000 Guineas but after several reasonable efforts in gGroup company the horse was packed off to the United Arab Emirates. Running for last years superstar trainer (Ismail Mohammed) he ran a good race on his dirt debut in the 1st round of the Group 3 Maktoum Challenge. However mirroring his turf profile in Ireland he ran consistently well without winning. This season he moved to French born Dubai based trainer Erwan Charpy and after a couple of average efforts he put in a creditable performance when beaten in the final strides by Blackat Blackitten. The way he battled to shrug off the attentions of Montpellier and then Halkin down the straight was very encouraging and if repeating the dose he could well run a big race. He ran an encouraging race on turf last time out but back on dirt he could well run into a place.

(10) BAHARAH 8-9 ~ The only filly in the race is the Gerald Butler trained 4yo Baharah who has been running over the all weather this winter. However the form of those races is way short of what is required today. After winning a muddling race at Kempton she didn’t overly impress when winning a weak race at Wolverhampton. She was blown out of the water by Medicine Path and the proximity of the dead wood in behind highlight what a stiff task this is for the young filly. How she will handle the kick back will be interesting but at least she is an American bred horse so there is hope she will handle the surface. However this is a massive step up in class and this trip is probably to give connections a nice holiday rather than a serious attempt to make a mark in this Group 2.

(11) ZAKOCITY 9-0 ~ Another horse whose been running in Saudi Arabia but unlike Don Renato he has little positive form to speak off. The 7yo was a decent performer a couple of seasons ago in the US but he was always just shy of top notch and he hasn’t shown anything for current connections to suggest he is the same horse.

(12) JET EXPRESS 9-0 ~ The ex-South African horse is now trained in the UAE and a regular fixture at the track. He’s had 6 runs at Nad Al Sheba this year and he’s had some success switching from turf to dirt. However he was well held when finishing 5th behind Elusive Warning last time out and there isn’t any reason why the 6yo should turn around that form.

(13) ELUSIVE WARNING 9-0 ~ Started off his career last season in America where he easily won a couple of average sprint races at Aqueduct. Hard to truly gauge the horses’ ability from those two efforts but we had a better idea when making his debut in a 6f handicap sprint at the carnival. He didn’t disgrace himself with 3rd in a competitive heat but he proved much the better for that first run in months when next seen out in the Group 3 Burj Nahaar. The step up in trip and the improved fitness brought out the best in the 4yo and he defied his odds of 16/1 to win from stable companion Blackat Blackitten. True he did get first run on his more fancied rival but he was holding that rival in the final furlong and saw the trip out well. The advantage he has over Blackat Blackitten is that he possesses tactical speed on the dirt whereas the Dettori mount is more of grinder. The statistics show that middle to high is the ideal place to be drawn when running over a mile on the dirt so the horses’ high draw shouldn’t be an inconvenience. The horse has only raced 4 times in his career and only once over a mile so there is plenty of scope for further improvement.

(14) ROSBERG 9-0 ~ Been blighted with injuries and has only seen a racecourse 11 times which isn’t a lot for a 7yo. Connections must have been delighted with his win in a handicap over course and distance last time out. However the son of A.P. Indy cost a cool $1.5 million so he is a long way from recouping the vast sum paid for him as 1yo. He faces a far stiffer task than the one that was presented to him in a weak handicap last time out but he shouldn’t disgrace himself and he could even pick up some prize money, but a place looks a step too far.

(15) BAROLA 9-0 ~ The second of the America trained horses in the race but his form doesn’t look half as impressive as his compatriot Diamond Stripes. All his winning form has been in non-Graded races and he hadn’t shown up in Graded company until allowed an easy lead in a small field at Aqueduct. That was over 10f so a return to a mile might not be ideal but his draw definitely isn’t as he faces an impossible task trying to lead from his car park draw. He has run well fresh but this is an extremely competitive race and his form doesn’t encourage that he is up to the challenge.

CONCLUSION

Outsiders worthy of note are Don Renato who looks overpriced at 200/1 despite the concerns over his form behind Premium Tap. Aleutian wouldn’t be without a chance if returning to the form he showed on run behind Jalil and Rosberg could have more to offer after his bloodless handicap win.

However there are five horses make the shortlist and they are as follows Blackat Blackitten, Brave Tin Soldier, Diamond Stripes, Golden Arrow and Elusive Warning.

Golden Arrow isn’t far away from Blackat Blackitten on the form of his handicap 2nd behind the Godolphin colt. However on form lines through Halkin he has progressed considerably from that effort so the Erwan Charpy colt is facing a tough task to beat the Godolphin pair.  Brave Tin Soldier is another horse who looks to be held by the Godolphin pair but his first run on dirt in the Group 3 Burj Nahaar was very encouraging. As stated there is plenty of reason to suggest he can improve considerably for the experience. He may be the most likely horse to fill 3rd spot if the American trained Diamond Stripes flops like he did on his only start this year at Santa Anita. That effort tampers the enthusiasm that his supporters might have had that the 5yo would be able to reproduce the form he showed at Saratoga behind Lawyer Ron. This is also a different challenge to anything the horse has faced before but if he has travelled well, takes to the different dirt surface at the carnival and bounces back to form he’ll give the Godolphin pair a lot to think about but it’s a lot of ‘ifs’.

Finally to the Godolphin pair Blackat Blackitten and Elusive Warning. We have the benefit of the two having already faced each other last time out with the former coming out on top. I’ve watched the race numerous times and although Blackat Blackitten didn’t get the clearest of passages I doubt whether it cost him the race. Elusive Warning looked like he could have pulled out more if necessary and possesses tactic speed whereas Frankie Dettoris mount is almost flat out for most of the 3f straight. Drawn in stall 5 and with the pace drawn outside him he could get trapped in on the inside at a vital moment handing the advantage to Elusive Warning.


2pt WIN - ELUSIVE WARNING @ 11/4
0.5pt EACH WAY - BRAVE TIN SOLDIER @ 50/1

RESULT

ELUSIVE WARNING 2nd = -2pts
BRAVE TIN SOLDIER 8th = -1pt