SANDOWN
7:15 BETFAIR HENRY II STAKES (GROUP 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m
THUNDERING STAR 9-7 ~ Grade 1 winner in South Africa but the 5yo needs to step up considerably on his first run in the Northern Hemisphere. In almost identical conditions at Longchamp he finished a well beaten 8th behind Coastal Path. He has since moved to Newmarket and back under the stewardship of Mike De Koch so there is a good chance he’ll improve on that run. However all his best for in South Africa came on a sound surface so soft conditions may not suit the horse and under his Group 1 penalty winning today looks a tall order.
ALLEGRETTO 9-4 ~ Good middle distance filly as a 3yo but she made up into a very decent stayer last season. She won this race last year as well as the Group 2 Goodwood Cup so she is saddled with a Group 2 penalty. Sir Michael Stoutes 5yo mare looks versatile regarding ground and there looks plenty of pace to allow her to attack from the back of the pace. However despite conditions looking ideal she hasn’t seen a racecourse for 7 months so she is sure to be in need of the run and carrying her penalty she can be taken on today.
BALKAN KNIGHT 9-2 ~ Better than ever last season and he was only beaten by ¾ of a length by Allegretto in last years renewal of this race. With a 4lbs pull in the weights and with the advantage of race fitness he would have a chance of reversing the form with the mare. He would also have a chance of reversing last seasons Group 3 Jockey Club Cup form with Royal And Regal at todays weights if in top form but he needs to step up on what he has shown so far this year. He made an encouraging reappearance over an inadequate trip at Newmarket and wouldn’t have been suited by being held up last time behind Tranquil Tiger, who stole the race from the front at Newbury and nothing else got into the race. Todays stronger pace and extra couple of furlongs should suit a lot more allowing the 8yo to show how much ability he still retains. The ground shouldn’t be a factor as he is a versatile sort and he always seems to run well at the track. He has to be of interest in conditions that look tailor made for David Elsworths gelding.
ENJOY THE MOMENT 9-2 ~ He has the soft ground he loves so a bold show is expected from last years Queen Alexandra Stakes winner. However this is his first step up into pattern company and he needs to improve considerably on all known form. This is also his first run in 7 months so the 5yo gelding is sure to be better for the run.
FINALMENTE 9-2 ~ Progressed from handicaps to run a massive race in the Group 1 Gold Cup at Royal Ascot last year. He finished 4th behind Yeats but then was then beaten by Balkan Knight over course and distance in a Listed event. Subsequently he comfortably reversed the form with Balkan Knight when finishing a close 3rd in the Goodwood Cup. Finalmente doesn’t look short of stamina and it could be that he needs a decent pace over 2 miles to turn the race into a good test. It is also possible though that in competitive races he is better suited by a decent surface as he also disappointed badly in the Cesarewitch two seasons ago on soft ground. Given the uncertainty and the fact that the horse is coming here off the back of a 8 month break he can be passed over for todays race.
PEPPERTREE LANE 9-2 ~ Had stamina doubts when making his seasonal reappearance at Ascot over 2 miles and in soft ground last time out. Although worried out of it late on by the battle hardened Shipmaster he answered those queries pretty convincingly. He needs to improve to win todays tougher race but he could do now he has had the benefit of a run. He looks a live contender off the back of his performance last time and with ideal conditions he has to be respected.
SERGEANT CECIL 9-2 ~ Saddened to say that the publics favourite flat horse is on the decline and he currently looks a shadow of his former self. His last five efforts have looked flat and he has shown very little recently to suggest he isn’t regressive. Soft ground isn’t likely to help the current situation and he is readily passed over.
REGAL AND ROYAL 9-0 ~ Progressive this season since moving from Andre Fabre and only a rejuvenated Geordieland was able to live with the Michael Jarvis trained colt in the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup last time. Todays extra two furlongs and soft ground hold no fears and it will possibly suit the horse even more than the conditions he’s faced so far this season. Further progression is more than possible and he is the one they all have to beat.
CONCLUSION
The withdraw of Tungsten Strike and Tranquil Tiger removes some potential pacesetters from the line up but there should still be a fair pace to todays race. Of the likely contenders only Balkan Knight, Peppertree Lane and Royal And Regal have had the benefit of a run this season. As a result it’s probably fruitful to focus on the chances of those three performers.
Jimmy Fortune prefers Peppertree Lane so Jamie Spencer is employed to take the ride on Balkan Knight. The latters reappearance hinted that the horse still retained all his ability as he ran on well in a very competitive race over an inadequate trip. He was never put into the race last time so with a more sensible ride and in ideal conditions he has to be respected as he has good form with most of the principles.
Peppertree Lane ran a career best last time on his reappearance and he has the scope for further improvement. However I don’t like backing a horse on the strength of one run especially when they are 5 and it could be that the front two handled the ground better than Distinction and Soapy Danger, who were the only serious rivals. True enough that he again has his ground but many of todays rivals should also handle it, unlike possibly what occurred at Ascot. That race at Ascot was also run at a steady pace and with todays race likely to be run at a good clip questions about stamina are still lingering despite how well he visually saw out the trip last time.
Royal And Regal is the clear stand out on form and looks the most likely winner but he did have a hard race at York last time and there is the concern that turn out so quickly he might be feeling the effects. That is enough of a worry to put me off backing him at his skinny price.
So preference then is for Balkan Knight who ran some fine races last season, particularly in the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup, and with conditions likely to suit him better than he has faced so far this season then he looks likely to again put up a bold show at a course he does so well at.
1pt EACH WAY – BALKAN KNIGHT @ 14/1
RESULT
BALKAN KNIGHT 2nd = +1.8pts
7:15 BETFAIR HENRY II STAKES (GROUP 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m
THUNDERING STAR 9-
ALLEGRETTO 9-
BALKAN KNIGHT 9-
ENJOY THE MOMENT 9-
FINALMENTE 9-
PEPPERTREE LANE 9-
SERGEANT CECIL 9-
REGAL AND ROYAL 9-
CONCLUSION
The withdraw of Tungsten Strike and Tranquil Tiger removes some potential pacesetters from the line up but there should still be a fair pace to todays race. Of the likely contenders only Balkan Knight, Peppertree Lane and Royal And Regal have had the benefit of a run this season. As a result it’s probably fruitful to focus on the chances of those three performers.
Jimmy Fortune prefers Peppertree Lane so Jamie Spencer is employed to take the ride on Balkan Knight. The latters reappearance hinted that the horse still retained all his ability as he ran on well in a very competitive race over an inadequate trip. He was never put into the race last time so with a more sensible ride and in ideal conditions he has to be respected as he has good form with most of the principles.
Peppertree Lane ran a career best last time on his reappearance and he has the scope for further improvement. However I don’t like backing a horse on the strength of one run especially when they are 5 and it could be that the front two handled the ground better than Distinction and Soapy Danger, who were the only serious rivals. True enough that he again has his ground but many of todays rivals should also handle it, unlike possibly what occurred at Ascot. That race at Ascot was also run at a steady pace and with todays race likely to be run at a good clip questions about stamina are still lingering despite how well he visually saw out the trip last time.
Royal And Regal is the clear stand out on form and looks the most likely winner but he did have a hard race at York last time and there is the concern that turn out so quickly he might be feeling the effects. That is enough of a worry to put me off backing him at his skinny price.
So preference then is for Balkan Knight who ran some fine races last season, particularly in the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup, and with conditions likely to suit him better than he has faced so far this season then he looks likely to again put up a bold show at a course he does so well at.
1pt EACH WAY – BALKAN KNIGHT @ 14/1
RESULT
BALKAN KNIGHT 2nd = +1.8pts
