ASCOT

3:55 WOODCOTE STUD SAGARO STAKES (GROUP 3) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m

PEPPERTRE LANE 9-4 ~ Loves plenty of cut in the ground so any further rain will only help his chances. Progressed well during his 3yo campaign and made the step up from handicaps into pattern company last season as a 4yo. His finest moment came when winning a decent Listed race at Newbury and a reproduction of that effort should see him go close. He seemed to lose his way at the back end of last season so has something to prove at present but the break should have freshened him up. He ran in a similar race in France on his seasonal reappearance last year and he didn’t appear to stay the trip. He deserves another chance at the trip though as over 1m6f he looks like he’ll stay 2miles. If fit enough then he has a good chance and Mark Johnston horses can prove tough to pass, especially at a track that seems to favour prominent runners on the round course.

BADDAM 9-1 ~ Hasn’t won for two years, since winning back to back races at Royal Ascot. He goes particularly well at the Berkshire track and all his best form last season was here at Ascot. He left Mick Channon at the end of last season to go hurdling but after being well beaten on his debut under rules those plans were put on hold. If his new trainer Ian Williams can get the best out of the 6yo then he could well run into a place but he does have ground to find on Distinction and Tungsten Strike on last years form.

DISTINCTION 9-1 ~ The yard had got off to a slow start this season but in the last 10 days the runners have been firing on all cylinders. Sir Michael Stoutes 9yo was 2nd in the Gold Cup and 1st in the Goodwood Cup three years ago. However he suffered a tendon injury two years ago and last season was a constant battle to get him back to his best. He ran a fine race in the Group 2 Doncaster Cup though and hinted that all his old ability still remains. He is a versatile sort regarding ground and the trip isn’t a concern so conditions are in his favour.  Reported to have been working extremely well and has won off the back of a break before so he has to be respected given his obvious class. In this company he probably wouldn’t need to be at his best to win but all the noises suggest he is in better form than last season so that means he looks the one they all have to beat.

FRANK SONATA 9-1 ~ Back after two years off the track when running an encouraging reappearance at Nottingham. He faded after setting the pace and he should improve for the run. He’ll appreciate if there’s any cut in the ground but he is a versatile sort and the trip holds no fears. However he is an exposed  and he’ll need a couple to disappoint if he’s going to win that’s even if he is capable of bouncing back to his form of two years ago.

SHIPMASTER 9-1 ~ Stays 2½ miles over hurdles and the way he ran over 1m6f last time out at Nottingham suggests he’ll appreciate todays trip far more. He has a progressive profile and Alan Kings runners on the level are always worthy of particular attention. Any rain should help his chances as when finishing 6th behind Soapy Danger in the Queen’s Vase two years ago he never looked happy in the firm going. This is a big step up in class but he isn’t without a chance of at least running into a place.

SOAPY DANGER 9-1 ~ Multiple Group winner as a 3yo when winning the Group 3 Queen’s Vase and Group 2 Princess Of Wales Stakes. Suffered a nasty injury when finishing 5th in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes two years ago and didn’t appear to be the same animal when returning last season. However on his seasonal reappearance this year he made an encouraging start when winning a conditions race at Doncaster. He should be fitter for the run and with an uninterrupted preparation this time he has a chance to bounce back to his best form. Very talented if at his best but he still has questions to answer given that Doncaster conditions race was a weak affair that he didn’t have to be at his best to win.

TUNGSTEN STRIKE 9-1 ~ Winner of this race last season but it was a weaker renewal and he is unlikely to get an uncontested lead. His form shows that he is best when able to dictate matters to a small field but with other front runners in the field that is unlikely. This is also a tough field and he looks likely to find this too tough given he isn’t getting any younger and is well exposed now.

CONCLUSION

A tricky contest in which many of the runners have question marks hanging over their chances.
Soapy Danger has the advantage over a number of his nearest rivals having already had a run this season. However he is a very short price given he has to prove he is still the same animal after his bad injury. The same can be said of Sir Michael Stoutes 9yo Distinction but his price is more tempting. Sir Michael Stoute has a fine record with older horses and he wouldn’t still be in training if he couldn’t do himself justice.
Of the rest Baddam is a big price given his course record and he has been gelded since last season which could help. If his new trainer can get him back to his best then he could run into a place if the principles disappoint but the trip looks on the short side for a dour stayer. Alan Kings Shipmaster is progressive and has confirmed fitness but this is tougher than the race at Nottingham last time out. The favourites stable companion Peppertree Lane is an interesting contender, especially if any rain arrives. There is a chance that with the withdrawal of Tungsten Strike he could have an easy time out in front but he has plenty to prove at present.

Slight preference is for the progressive Shipmaster who only has to prove that he is good enough. Conditions are ideal and there is plenty to think he can improve given he is still lightly raced and this trip looks likely to be ideal.

1pt WIN - SHIPMASTER @ 6/1

RESULT

SHIPMASTER 1st = +6pts

APRIL TOTAL = +36.89pts