YORK

2:10 PD PORTS STAKES (CONDITIONS RACE) (CLASS 3) (3yo+) 7f

DABBLERS RIDGE 9-4 ~ At one point the Barry Hills trained horse was a model of consistency. However now the complete opposite is the case and good runs are sandwiched between poor efforts. He made an encouraging reappearance at Warwick when beating Welsh Emperor in a conditions stakes on soft ground. However next time out he finished last of the finishers in the Victoria Cup handicap and although he used to be versatile sort regarding ground he now seems to appreciate plenty of cut in the ground. He also seems to struggle in the hot handicaps and now he’s 6 he is definitely not the force he used to be and in this field, which is basically Listed class, he can be readily taken on.  

ADVANCED 9-2 ~ Winner of the Ayr Gold Cup last season and on his day he is a more than capable performer. He finished a close 2nd in the Listed City of York Stakes over course and distance last season so despite racing mostly over 6f todays trip at this sharp track isn’t likely to be a concern. The overnight rain has also helped as the Kevin Ryan 5yo as he is better horse when he can get his toe into the ground. This season the horse ran a big race in the competitive Listed Abernant Stakes when winning his race on the slower side of the course. However that effort was sandwiched between two very average efforts and particularly worrying was his effort last time at Haydock when well beaten behind Reverence. He appears to be a much better performer is big fields and there are only 9 other rivals today so maybe todays field isn’t quite big enough. The horse also appears to be a much better horse at the back end of the season so despite having leading claims on the best of his form he has plenty of questions to answer today.

CELTIC SULTAN 9-2 ~ Although Chester and York can’t be called similar tracks both have a distinct bias towards front runners. Celtic Sultan is the type of front runner who will be 5 lengths clear after two furlongs and it he’ll be the target they’ll all be aiming for. His win at Chester came in quite a hot handicap for the grade but this is a lot tougher and with New Seeker in the line up he may not be allowed as easy a lead as he was gifted at Chester. However New Seeker hasn’t really looked the same horse who won the Royal Hunt Cup for a long time and he was in trouble three furlongs from home on his seasonal reappearance so Celtic Sultan maybe able to shrug him off without too much of a worry. Any rain though would be terminal for his chances as he is a better horse on a fast surface but as the ground is at the minute it wouldn’t be too different to it was at Chester. He is likely to improve for his run at Chester and as front runners don’t really come back to the field at York he has to have a great chance of continuing the progression he’s shown in his last five runs.

DIAMOND TYCOON 9-2 ~ His maiden victory on his seasonal reappearance last year was extremely impressive at the time but has subsequently been made to look extremely good by the likes of Lucarno and Pipedreamer, to name a few, who were well beaten in behind. He went on to be far from disgraced in the 2000 Guineas finishing 9th behind Cockney Rebel but injury curtailed his season and he wasn’t seen again. He made his seasonal reappearance this year on the all weather but he got worked up and never ran his race finishing a well beaten last. With the run under his belt and a return to racing on turf over a more suitable trip he ran a much better race at Haydock when 2nd in the Listed Spring Trophy Stakes. He was well beaten behind Appalachian Trail but it was a much more encouraging effort and he is sure to need a couple of runs to get him spot on after serious injury and more than a year off the track. On the best of his form he has to have a serious chance but he still has to prove he is the same animal he was before injury and his sire Johannesburg was a regressive animal which has to be a concern. The horse has plenty of questions to answer but everything looks to be in the horses favour and his performance today will be the acid test.

KING OF DIXIE 9-2 ~ Unraced at 2 and only made his debut at the end of last season when producing an eye catching performance despite running very green. With the experience under his belt he broke his maiden in convincing fashion on the all weather this winter. That qualified the horse for handicaps and at Lingfield he beat the Cambridgshire 4th Yarqus in ready fashion resulting in the horse going down into many a notebook. Back on turf the horse lined up in the very competitive Victoria Cup handicap where he continued his progression to finish a very commendable 3rd against more experience rivals. He looks to have the potential to make up into a Group horse and as such a lightly raced horse his progression isn’t likely to have stopped so he has to enter calculations.

LEVERA 9-2 ~ Looked to be a front runner with a big future at 3 but last season he seemed to reach the ceiling of his ability. A change in tactics seems to have coincided with a change in fortunes and he has looked regressive after recent performances. After winning on his seasonal reappearance the last twice this year he finished last which sums up horses the recent fortunes. He needs to drastically turn out his current form to win and so isn’t a sensible betting proposition.

NEW SEEKER 9-2 ~ Winner of the Royal Hunt Cup and International Stakes three years ago but he is a shadow of his former self at present. He should really be enjoying retirement in a field and he has only beaten one horse in his last five starts. A course and distance winner who would merit serious respect on the best of his form but his reappearance wasn’t encouraging and he is ruled out.

SOMETHING 9-2 ~ Great season for Terry Mills last year started at Windsor when the gelding finished a close 3rd behind Borderlescott and Assertive in the Listed Leisure Stakes. That was followed up by a 4th in the Wokingham and the step up to 7f didn’t stop him finishing 3rd in the Banbury Cup. He made the switch to Dandy Nicholls over the winter and disappointed on his debut for new connections at the Dubai Carnvial. Back in the UK he was given a blatant prep race over the minimum trip which is sure to have put the horse spot on. His prominent style of running is sure to suit here at York and he doesn’t look short of speed. He is sure to have improved for his reappearance and on the best of his form he has a great chance in todays race.

EAST TARGET 8-7 ~ Found wanting in Group company last season but his efforts in lesser company mark the colt down as a more than capable performer in this sort of grade. His final start at Redcar in the Listed 2yo Trophy was very encouraging and he looks sure to appreciate the extra furlong. He has apparently done well over the winter and is looking likely to make up into a decent 3yo. However first time out against older more experienced horses may be too much to ask at present and a watching brief is advised but she could sneak into a place at a massive price.

FATEH FIELD 8-5 ~ Fancy Group 1 entries latter on in the season catch the eye and the Godolphin colt looked an above average performer in two starts as a juvenile. He made an encouraging reappearance behind two useful sorts last time out and he is sure to improve for that effort. He’ll have to if connections are aiming the 3yo at the St James Palace Stakes and Sussex Stakes and against older more experienced rivals this will be a tough task. With his fancy connections and fancy entries its not a surprise the unexposed colt was put in at tissue favourite but at this time of year the Classic generation tend to struggle against the older horses unless they have plenty in hand. Fateh Field might have plenty in hand but he isn’t an appealing price and the lack of confidence in the market is a major concern so he is taken on.

CONCLUSION

Advanced and Diamond Tycoon have chances on the best of their form but they don’t appeal as betting propositions with plenty of questions to answer. Fateh Field is very weak in the market and against older horses he could struggle.
Celtic Sultan is sure to take the field on at a good clip and looks to have a great chance however he may lack some of the class of his rivals so could be vulnerable in the final furlong. Something has some fine form in some competitive handicaps last season and is sure to be a lot better after his prep run over the minimum trip. However he could be vulnerable to some less exposed sorts but he is likely to challenge of a place. King Of Dixie is the lowest rated of these but he has a progressive profile and connections don’t seem concerned to blow his handicap mark. Group races look sure to be on the horizon and he is the one they all have to beat. Despite East Target having plenty on his plate he was thought good enough to run in the Gimcrack last season and on the best of his form he is too big a price to ignore.

1pt WIN - KING OF DIXIE @ 5/2
0.5pt EACH WAY – EASY TARGET @ 40/1

RESULT

KING OF DIXIE 1st = +2.5pts
EASY TARGET 3rd = +3.5pts