AINTREE

2:00 JOHN SMITH'S GREAT FLOAT SOCIAL CLUB LIVERPOOL HURDLE (REGISTERED AS LONG DISTANCE HURDLE) (GRADE 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m

BLAZING BAILEY 11-10 ~ Ran a bizarre race in the World Hurdle as the horse was badly outpaced before staying on past beaten horses up the hill. For a horse who finished 3rd in the Triumph Hurdle he hadn’t previously looked short of pace. His critics pre-race had talked about the horse not having the stamina to see out the fast run 3 miles at Cheltenham and judging by previous runs in the World and Cleeve Hurdle it appeared they may have had a case. Maybe his World Hurdle performance can be put down to the absence of regular jockey Robert Thorton and if so it must be a positive that the pair are reunited today. The sharper Aintree track at which he has run well at before should give the horse the advantage of being able to use his pace, as he did at Cheltenham over 2½ miles earlier in the season. He was tremendously impressive that day and maybe this speed track might bring out a similar performance in the 6yo.

INGLIS DREVER 11-10 ~ It was great to see this admirable 9yo make it a hat-trick of wins in the World Hurdle a few weeks ago. However as great the horse has been at Cheltenham he has failed in three previous attempts to follow that up at Aintree. This speed track doesn’t seem to play to the horses strengths and although there is little doubting he is the best horse in the race he has to be taken on at short odds at a festival he has yet to win at in three attempts.  

LOUGH DERG 11-10 ~ As excellent as the horse’ record is at Ascot is he’s been poor at Cheltenham in the past three seasons. It didn’t come as a great surprise then when he failed to show up in the World Hurdle although his 13/15 finish was still very disappointing as he was going backwards before they turned down the hill. Possible that the 8yo was feeling the effects of a long season but if he can bounce back to the form he showed when finishing 2nd behind Kasbah Bliss at Haydock and when giving away weight in the National Spirit then he’ll have a great each way chance

BALLYFITZ 11-6 ~ Interesting runner from the stable that also sent out the winner of the 2000 Pretempts Final, Rubhahunish who went on to follow up in the Group 1 Punchestown Stayers Hurdle. However Rubhahunish carried more weight in the Pretempts and broke the course record so he had less to find with the top stayers than Ballyfitz. Ballyfitz is lightly raced though and his win to record is extremely impressive with 5 wins from 7 attempts over timber. He will need to improve again to figure but he is heading in the right direction and whereas many of his opponents have had long seasons this will be only his 6th run this term and 8th in total. However his handicap form in the Pretempts falls short of that shown by Kicks For Free in the Coral Cup and he lines up as the lowest rated horse in the line-up.

CHIEF DAN GEORGE 11-6 ~ Won at last years Aintree festival when taking the Grade 1 Sefton Novices' Hurdle but the race fell into his lap really as Wichita Lineman and Massini’s Maguire cut each others throats up front. They took each other on along way from home but were both legless at the end of the race allowing the plugging on Chief Dan George to pick up the pieces. The 8yo hasn’t been able to make his mark in the top staying hurdle races this season and the same result looks probable with the race unlikely to be set-up for him again.

FLIGHT LEADER 11-6 ~ Appears to be better suited by soft ground and although not far off the likes of Blazing Bailey and Inglis Drever on the form of the Cleeve Hurdle last year the ground appears to be going against him. He was well held in this years renewal of the World Hurdle and a same result looks likely on this faster ground.

KICKS FOR FREE 11-6 ~ 8th in the Grade 1 Supreme Novice’ Hurdle last season but after a disappointing effort in a handicap at last years Aintree festival he sustained a hairline fracture and was given a breathing operation. He wasn’t seen again till winning an average handicap at Kempton off a mark of 133. He was raised 11lbs by the handicapper for that win and it made the difference in the Coral Cup as he just failed to get up on a mark of 144. It’s not easy to carry top weight in a Cheltenham handicap but he almost managed it in an ultra competitive field. He looked like he enjoyed the stiffer test in stamina as he was miles back jumping 2 out, in fact he was 14th but made good headway to jump the last in 5th and he ran up the hill well to only just be beat a short head. The way he relished 2½ miles at Cheltenham hints that the horse should get on equally well over 3 miles at Aintree. If he does he rates as a lively outsider as he is clearly talented but has had his problems in the past and his breathing operation may have finally bought out the best in the Nicholls runner.

FAASEL 11-2 ~ Been mixing hurdles and chases this season but he hasn’t been good enough in either sphere despite running consistently. The horse has run well on both trips to Aintree but he isn’t the strongest of finishers and he’ll be vulnerable again in this company.

KAWAGINO 11-2 ~ Ran a good race in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle at last years festival but although he can run the odd good race in Grade 1 company he isn’t good enough to trouble the principles. Stepped up to 3 miles might bring around some improvement but it hasn’t looked likely and he looks up against it in this company.

MILLENIUM ROYAL 11-2 ~ The Francois Doumen 8yo is the type of horse whose the punters friend. Very good on testing ground but not the same horse on faster ground so although talented can be confidently passed over todays ground.

GASPARA 10-13 ~ Won four on the trot as a novice last season but the mares best run came when 2nd in the Group 1 Aintree Hurdle. However she hasn’t shown the same progressive form this season and has looked short of the standard needed to win at the highest level. Hope comes in the shape of Tony McCoy but she has to turn around a 9 length beating at the hands of Blazing Bailey earlier in the season and the trip didn’t appear to bring around the necessary improvement when running over 3 miles at Ascot.

CONCLUSION

Shortlist contains Blazing Bailey, Inglis Drever, Lough Derg and Kicks For Free.

Inglis Drever is the one they have to beat but he has to be taken on given his record at the Aintree festival. Blazing Bailey is the obvious alternative and reunited with Robert Thornton he should be able to give a good account of himself. The application of first time blinkers may sharpen him up and if he can reproduce his effort in the Grade 2 Steel Plate And Sections Hurdle the he should go close. However his run last time out was a little disappointing and he needs to bounce back.
Lough Derg should be better away from Cheltenham but his run in the World Hurdle was a worrying effort as he was one of the first horses beaten. He doesn’t seem to be the same horse away from Ascot although he can still run well away from the Berkshire track. For instance his win in the Grade 2 National Spirit at Fontwell was a game effort but that race could have been one too many and that he was feeling the effects of a long season at Cheltenham. If that is correct then he isn’t going to be any better at Aintree but even back to his best he needs to improve to match the form showed by Blazing Bailey and Inglis Drever.
One horse who could have the improvement in him is Kicks For Free who ran on from a different parish to only just be denied in the Coral Cup. He should be rated better than the bare form as he needs to be delivered as late as possible and his heavyweight wouldn’t have helped his chances. To ran as well as that when carrying top weight in a Cheltenham handicap deserves particular attention and he definitely has further improvement in him. His breathing operation appears to have done the trick and this step up in trip shouldn’t inconvenience him. He would be receiving 22lbs from Inglis Drever in a handicap but there appears to be at 10-15lbs worth of improvement in the 7yo and Inglis Drever will struggle to run up to his mark of 172 here at Aintree.

Choosing the alternative to Inglis Drever comes down to a tough decision between Blazing Bailey and Kicks For Free.

Blazing Bailey has the form in the book but his run in the World Hurdle is slightly off putting. The application of blinkers seem a reaction to that run but if back to the form he showed when winning the Grade 2 Steel Plate And Sections Hurdle then he will give the favourite a lot to think about. Slight preference is for the Nicholls trained Kicks For Free who looks on the upgrade and could improve further for the step up to 3 miles around Aintree. He needs to be delivered late though but Ruby Walsh is more than capable and he could well be an interesting newcomer to staying hurdles.

1pt WIN - KICKS FOR FREE @ 1½

RESULT

KICKS FOR FREE 6th = -1pt