LEOPARDSTOWN

7:00 BALLYOGAN STAKES (GROUP 3) (FILLIES & MARES) (3yo+) 6f

ALEAGUEOFTHEIROWN 9-6 ~ Made her debut in the Group 2 Debutante Stakes when involved in a close finish behind decent fillies Dimenticata and Alexander Tango. She must have been highly thought of to be pitched straight into pattern company and she ran a massive race behind some high class rivals with more experience. That was her only appearance as a juvenile but she returned a year later to beat subsequent Irish 1000 Guineas 5th, Truly Mine, in a Cork maiden. So in her first two starts she looked like a filly with a bright future but she has disappointed badly in two races since. Both of those efforts came on soft ground though and her decent efforts came on a faster surface so a return to quicker ground could bring around a return to form. She has run well fresh before so the 10 month break from racecourse action shouldn’t be too much of a concern but the trip could be for a horse that has looked all over a miler. Still an interesting unexposed 4yo filly from David Wachman and she deserves particular attention in the markets.

CARTIMANDUA 9-6 ~ Last season her sights were lowered after finishing 11th in the 1000 Guineas and sprinting definitely appeared to be her game when absolutely dotting up in the Listed Silver Salver Stakes at Haydock. It was a case of Cartimandua 1st, the rest nowhere and it marked the 3yo down as a filly to look out for in future sprints. As it happens she wasn’t seen out again last season due to injury but she made her seasonal reappearance in the Listed Kilvington Fillies' Stakes at Nottingham last month. The turn of foot she showed when dispatching with a decent field was impressive and proved she has returned from injury just as good as before. The step up in class looks well earned and against her own sex she has to enter calculations given her unexposed and progressive profile.

EMILY BLAKE 9-6 ~ Yet to race on firm ground so the jury is still out on whether she’ll handle it but all her best form has come when there is plenty of cut in the ground. That was no more apparent when producing a career best effort in the Group 3 Athasi Stakes last time out. She finished 2nd behind Prima Luce as the two rags dominated the race. That improved performance seemed to come from nowhere and the form of the race doesn’t look reliable given the shocking performances from most of the principles. She could be progressive but today she faces faster ground than she has ever encountered before and over a trip short of her best. I’m not convinced that her result last time wasn’t anything more than a flash in the pan so with plenty against her she is passed over.

MANZILA 9-6 ~ Former Listed performer over in France till the 5yo mare made the switch to join the Sprint King Dandy Nicholls. Like many of the yards horses she stepped up considerably on her debut for her new yard when easily win a hot Thirsk sprint handicap. The field finished well strung out and with the 2nd and the 3rd running big races in the Scottish Sprint Cup the form looks very good. The extra furlong should be a positive rather than a hindrance and the mare looks an interesting contender in ideal conditions.

THAT’S HOT 9-6 ~ Progressed nicely last season and after she was only beaten by a head in this race last year she went on to finish 4th in the Stewards Cup at Glorious Goodwood. After those two fine efforts she disappointed in two subsequent races but she had done a similar thing the year before and bounced back so there is little reason to think she can’t repeat the trick. The 9 month break from the track shouldn’t also be a concern as she has already proven herself to be equally effective when fresh and with ideal ground conditions everything looks in her favour. We know she has the class so with ticks in all the right boxes she is a leading player.

CAMPFIRE GLOW 9-3 ~ Dermot Welds filly was rather fortunate to beat Listen in the Group 2 Debutante Stakes last year but as her effort in the Goffs Million showed she is a high class animal. Her seasonal reappearance this year was disappointing but the yards runners are known to come on well for a run so her supporters should write her off yet. However todays trip might not be ideal as the filly hasn’t previously looked a sprinter and her best form has come with cut in the ground. Over 6f and on quick ground she could be taken off her feet but there is no getting away from the fact she is a high class animal so she can’t be ruled out easily.

ELLETELLE 9-3 ~ She produced something of a shock when winning the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot last year but she proved that was no flash in the pan when 3rd in the Group 2 Cherry Hinton Stakes next time out. The latter performance was particularly impressive given she was very slowly away and lost more than half a dozen lengths at the start. She was only beaten a little more than a length by You’resothrilling and with her Group penalty she was the filly to take out of the race. Next time out in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes she ran a massive race behind Saoirse Abu and Henrythenavigator to finish 3rd on ground that wouldn’t have been ideal. The problem of being slow out of the stalls continued at HQ when finishing 6th behind Natagora in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes. It was still a tad disappointing though that she couldn’t finish closer to the principles but she may have been feeling the effects of a long season. On her reappearance at the Curragh she finished last of 11 and it was her first worrying performance. There are excuses however, that she’ll be better for the run and that racing over 7f in the testing ground was too much for the filly to handle but she still shouldn’t have been so comprehensively beaten. It could be that she hasn’t trained on, which is a real possibility, but today should be the acid test as she has ideal conditions and no excuses. Her Group penalty doesn’t leave much room for error though so a watching brief is advised at present.

AGE OF CHIVARLY 8-12 ~ Progressive young sprinter for John Oxx but she needs to step up considerably on all known form if she is going to figure. She was well beaten on her reappearance in a Listed event before staying on well last time in an average handicap. This is a whole different ball game against more experienced rivals and she could well struggle. On the plus side conditions should be to her likely and the stable are flying.

EASTERN ROMANCE 8-12 ~ Progressed into a nice sprint filly last season and on her final start as a juvenile she absolutely bolted up in a Listed race at Longchamp. Another trip to Europe was on the card for this seasons reappearance and she managed to finish 2nd in a Group 3 over in Italy. Not easy to fully evaluate the form of those two races but for sure today will be tougher. Conditions should be ideal though so if she is good enough she shouldn’t have any excuses. However it would only be on the strength of her two runs on the continent that you could back her and the suspicion is that the form isn’t as strong as it first seems.

FORTHEFIRSTIME 8-12 ~ John Oxx first string on jockey bookings and the daughter of Dr Fong has improved with each run so far in her career. She appreciated 6f and quick ground as time out at the Curragh when winning a Listed event. The third in that race Bett’s Spirit has franked the form by running well in a Listed race in the UK behind Spinning Lucy. Forthefirstime has to continue her progression to figure in this race but she is unexposed and as the jockey bookings suggest she’ll turn into a nice sort. She could need this run though after 9 months off the track so she could found wanting as really she would probably need to be spot on to that this race today.

MY GIRL SOPHIE 8-12 ~ The return to fast ground and the partnership with rising star Danny Mullins seems to have given the filly a new lease of life. She has won two races on the trot in comfortable fashion so she comes here in the peak of her powers. The drop down in trip though doesn’t look sure to suit and Kevin Manning takes over from the 7lbs claimer. She has to improve again if she is going to figure in this much more competitive race but she has to enter calculations on her current form.

CONCLUSION

Forthefirstime looks to be the most interesting contender from the sextet of 3yo fillies but like the rest of the classic generation lining up in todays race she has questions to answer. Against some high class older sprinters the younger fillies could struggle, especially Campfire Glow and Elletelle with their Group penalties.
Of the older horses Cartimandua, Manzila and That’s Hot look the triplet to focus attention on.
That’s Hots chances shouldn’t be ruled out due to her end of season form and the fact she comes here fresh. She has already proven she can bounce back on her seasonal reappearance and given her obvious class she is sure to be there at the finish. Manzila looks a filly with a bright future after her authoritative victory in a decent handicap last time at Thirsk. However the Sprint King Dandy Nicholls may have come up against an even better filly in the shape of Cartimandua. Given her impressive wins in two Listed events she looks all over a future Group race winning mare. Against her own sex she should have too much for this field and she should be able to put this race to bed with her remarkable turn of foot.

2pt WIN – CARTIMANDUA @ 7/2
1pt PLACE – THAT’S HOT @ 3.25

RESULT

CARTIMANDUA 3rd = -2pts
THAT’S HOT 7th = -1pt