AINTREE

3:45 JOHN SMITH'S GRAND NATIONAL CHASE (HANDICAP) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (6yo+) 4m4f

HEDGEHUNTER 11-12 ~ Previous winner of the Grand National in 2005 when he thrashed a competitive field. The Willie Mullins trained gelding is 12lbs higher in the handicap now but he finished 2nd the following year when on the same mark so not without a chance. He goes well over the National fences so has plenty of experience and although getting on, at 12 Amberleigh House proved that age group can still win the National. Best to forget last season as injury interrupted his preparation but things have gone much better this season. His run last time out in the Grade 2 Bobbyjo Chase hints that the horse is just as good as ever and with his experienced jockey on board he has strong place claims at least.

HI CLOY 11-12 ~ This Michael Hourigan trained 11yo has been used to racing over 2-2½ miles and although he has form over 3 miles he hasn’t been looking in need of such an extreme test of stamina.

KNOWHERE 11-11 ~ Jumping sometimes leaves a lot to be desired but the Nigel Twiston-Davies 10yo has shown improved form this season which culminated in victory in the Grade 2 Letheby And Christopher Chase. He unseated in this race last year and although his jumping had improved this season the problems returned in the Gold Cup. If he managed to jump better he could get involved as he stayed on well in the Hennessy. This is more than mile longer though so lots of question marks hanging over his chances.

MR POINTMENT 11-11 ~ Always looked like a second season handicap chaser to follow during his novice campaign but the Grand National didn’t appear to be the likely route. However after jumping the National fences like a natural when winning the Becher Chase this was always going to be the aim. His jumping should keep him in it for a long way but the horse is more of a 2½ mile horse than a 3 mile plus and there has to be serious doubts about his stamina. More worrying has to be the fact that the horse bled last time out, apparently it wasn’t a bad bleed but it was enough to stop him in his tracks and it has the potential to happen again.

TURKO 11-10 ~ Only 6 years old which means he is much too young and inexperienced for the Grand National. Had a hard race in the Ryanair, which wouldn’t have helped, and he can be readily passed over.

MADISON DU BERLAIS 11-9 ~ Improved performer for David Pipe this season and his finest moment came arguably in the Hennessy Gold Cup when he stayed on to finish 4th. Versatile regarding ground but not certain to stay the trip and it can’t be said that he’s been screaming out for such an extreme test of stamina. He wasn’t a certain to stay 3 miles before this season and although he has done well this is a different ball game altogether. He also has plenty of weight to carry and as a 7yo is probably too young to be competitive in the National.

SIMON 11-7 ~ The John Spearing 9yo was running an excellent race in last years Grand National before crumpling 5 from home. Difficult to know for sure how he would have fared but he was jumping really well and was still travelling sweetly when coming to grief. Horses such as Hedgehunter have proven you can win the National after failing in the previous years renewal and his form has proven he is just as good as ever this season. He ran good trials in both the Boylesports Chase and Racing Post Chase so all systems go for another attempt at the National.

IRON MAN 11-5 ~ Peter Bowen 7yo who has a fine record at Market Rasen but doesn’t appear to be the same horse away from his favoured venue. He’s been pulled up in his last two runs so has to bounce back. His yard could be blamed as they have been in shocking form since the New Year but they are hardly firing on all cylinders now so it’s still a concern. His record here doesn’t fill anyone with confidence having made jumping errors in both efforts over the National fences so he has little chance of making a mark in this years Grand National.

FUNDAMENTALIST 11-4 ~ All the horse’s best form has been over 2½ miles so he hasn’t exactly been running as if needing a good test of stamina. He also had two runs in the space of three days at the Cheltenham festival and that must have taken its toll given the dead ground. He has plenty of weight to lug round and he hardly looks the type to improve for the test presented by the National.

BUTLER’S CABIN 11-3 ~ Tony McCoy has chosen the Jonjo O’Neill trained 8yo and it looks to be one of his best chances of breaking his National duck in recent years if his mount can return to the form he showed last season. He won the National Hunt Chase over 4 miles at the Cheltenham festival and he followed that up with a fine win in the Irish National. So this National trip shouldn’t be too much of a concern as he has proven himself capable of running big races in extreme staying chases. Main worry would be the horse’ form this season as he hasn’t looked the same animal this term. Solace though comes in the shape of the horses form going into Cheltenham last year. Before his National Hunt Chase win he had previous run below form in two handicaps but bounced back extremely well to win. If he could repeat the dose then he has to enter calculations, although obviously this seasons form is a big concern.

SLIM PICKINGS 11-3 ~ 3rd in last years renewal of the Grand National but 7lbs higher this years so he has to improve just to run up to the same level of form. However that was almost winning form and unlike most horses the course and distance hold no fears as he is confirmed to stay and likes the stiff fences. He’s been specifically trained for the National all season (unlike last season) and after two runs over hurdles he ran an encouraging prep race over an inadequate trip at Leopardstown. Everything looks in place for another bold bid from the Tom Taaffe 9yo.

CHELSEA HARBOUR 11-2 ~ The son of Old Vic has shown improved form since the New Year, much like he did last season so this is definitely his time of year. His run in the National Trial at Punchestown was particularly impressive as the further went the better he ran and he flew home at the finish. That holds out plenty of encouragement that he’ll improve for the extreme test of stamina. Although it wasn’t the greatest race it was more the major of his win rather than the bare form that impressed. That was heavy ground but the gelding proved next time out at Leopardstown that he is a versatile sort regarding ground conditions. The only worry seems to be the worrying mistakes he makes at his fences and these National fences will put that part of his game under severe pressure.

VODKA BLEU 11-2 ~ The application of blinkers at Ascot sparked this David Pipe trained gelding into life. He had been a good novice over 2½ miles as a novice four years ago and had finished 2nd in the Paddy Power Chase in 2006. Since finishing runner-up in that competitive handicap he lost all his form and he ran in the Topham last season where he finished a distant 12th. He can be expected to perform better than that effort but his stamina is far from assured and Timmy Murphy prefers his stable companion Comply Or Die.

L’AMI 11-1 ~ The Francois Doumen 9yo had looked out of sort this season but the gelding bounced back to form in the William Hill Trophy Handicap at the Cheltenham festival. He finished 10th in this race last year and although he was 9lbs higher he was in better form having run well in the Gold Cup. More importantly though he didn’t appear to stay in last years National, he travelled well but struggling to go with the principles over the last mile or so. Chances are a similar scenario is likely and he can be passed over.

SNOWY MORNING 11-1 ~ The fact that Ruby Walsh has chosen his stable mate Hedgehunter highlights that he what he’s up against really. The horse did finish 2nd in the Grade 1 Sun Alliance at last years Cheltenham festival but he was thumped when trying to follow up at the Punchestown festival and his form this year isn’t exactly encouraging that he is anything special. After a two wins in a couple of average hurdle race he managed to finish 3rd in the Irish Hennessy. The slow early pace that The Listener dictated probably meant the finishing position flattered Snowy Morning while the horse’ in behind had their reasons for running poorly. The suspicion seemed to be confirmed some what in the Grade 2 Bobby Chase where he couldn’t live with Afistfullofdollars and his stable mate Hedgehunter, who bounced back to form to reverse the Irish Hennessy form in convincing fashion. He does have a 16lbs turn around with the former Grand National winner but Snowy Morning looks overrated and he hasn’t looked as if he’ll improve for this marathon trip. His jumping is another serious concern and he is far from certain to enjoy these National fences and the challenge the race brings as a whole.

BEWLEYS BERRY 11-0 ~ All of the horses’ best form since his novice days has been on the Grand National course. He has finished 2nd in the last two runnings of the Becher Chase and was running a fine race in last seasons Grand National before falling. He was travelling and jumping well up until crumpling on landing at the Chair on the second circuit. Difficult to say where or now he would have finished as he is really still unexposed over extreme distance. He has run in the Red Square Vodka Chase at Haydock in last two renewals but the ground went against him last year and this year the yard were in their well documented slump. The yard is back in the swing of things after the dodgy batch of hey and no reason to think the horse can produce another bold effort over a course he thrives at.

CONTRABAND 11-0 ~ Amazing to think this horse won the Arkle three years ago but he has declined faster than Gary Glitters career. He has absolutely no chance and let’s hope he doesn’t cause any trouble.

MCKELVEY 11-0 ~ Raised 8lbs in the handicap for finishing 2nd in this race last season. However the Peter Bowen trained 9yo was coming into last years race having shown much better form. This seasons down turn in fortunes has to be down to the yard who as mentioned previously have been really struggling since the New Year. Although the stables form has improved slightly there is still the question mark hanging over the yard and the well being of McKelvey. If he could bounce back to last years form then he would have a great chance of winning as the way he stayed on over the trip suggests he could gain compensation if ridden more prominently.

JOACCI 10-13 ~ Pulled up in the Scottish National suggesting that 3 miles doesn’t really suit the David Pipe 8yo. However is a temperamental sort and he probably hated the firm ground, so he is probably worth another try on a more suitable surface. He can run the odd good race but mostly he is a disappointment. First time visor though appeared to help the son of Presenting as he ran well over hurdles and in a chase at Uttoxeter but he hasn’t worn any in his last four runs, which have all been poor. Hopes rest on the application of first time blinkers which seem to work particularly well on the yards other horses.

POINT BARROW 10-13 ~ Started favourite for last years renewal of the Grand National but his supporters knew their fate not soon after the race started as he fell at the first fence. He hasn’t been in the same form this year though and he may have missed his chance. He did run an encouraging race at Gowran Park but two subsequent disappointing efforts have tempered any enthusiasm.

D’ARGENT 10-12 ~ Alan Kings sole runner in the National and he’s a horse who definitely revels in conditions that require plenty of stamina. However he isn’t the most consistent horse and he appears better suited by testing ground conditions. His love of Warwick also tempers enthusiasm but if he can convince himself this is Warwick then he has to be in with a chance. A risky betting proposition but if he can put it all together in far from ideal ground then he could run into a place.

NO FULL 10-12 ~ Made the move to Ireland at the end of last season and joined Thomas Foley. He showed good form switching between hurdling and chasing in which he ran a fine race in the Irish Paddy Power Chase to finish 3rd. He had been a 2½ mile horse in Britain but that was run over 3 miles. Not soon after that run he left to join the Eoin Doyle yard but he couldn’t reproduce the form he had shown for his previous yard. However he looked stretched for stamina at the end of the Leopardstown race on good ground so running over 3 miles in testing conditions he didn’t get home. Apparently he suffered a cut in the race so there is the slight possibility that resulted in a below par performance before but it doesn’t look likely given the horses obvious stamina limitations. He caught an infection from the cut and so was on the “easy list” so should improve on the form he showed at Navan last time out when given a prep run. Improvement will probably be forthcoming but there is still a big enough worry over his stamina to mean he can be easily passed over.

BAILY BREEZE 10-11 ~ Not the most consistent horse and he has run two shockers in his last two runs. He doesn’t look like he’s been crying out for an extreme stamina test and he can be easily ruled out.

BOB HALL 10-11 ~ Normally a bastion of consistency but in his last two runs he has put up no more than a whimper. He has serious questions to answer regarding his current form and combined with the query about his stamina his chances are marked with a cross.

CLOUDY LANE 10-11 ~ 20lbs well in on official figures but as an article in the RP the other day showed, horses that are “thrown in” have a poor record in recent years. It is simple why that could be the case as the Grand National is a completely different test to anything else in the racing calendar. A 3 mile chase around any other course is completely different from 4½ miles over the stiff Aintree fences. Cloudy Lane would be in with a great chance if the National was run over 3 miles but it isn’t. He also has no experience of the National fences, although he is sure to be well school over them at home. The horse has attempted extreme staying handicaps before in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup Chase at Haydock and the Irish National. He was found wanting for stamina in both so todays extra mile is a serious concern for all those backing him at his current odds. He has to be taken on at his current odds especially as over this extended trip he wouldn’t be sure to confirm Haydock form with Comply Or Die who has proven stamina.

KING JOHNS CASTLE 10-11 ~ This big grey is trained by Arthur Moore and is a lovely jumper of a fence. If he can translate that to the National fences then he should at least complete the course. Although his stamina for the National is far from assured and he has only raced over 3 miles once he just fit the profile of a horse who shall improve for an extreme test of stamina. In the Pierse Chase over 3 miles at Leopardstown he stayed on extremely well but he was just didn’t have the pace to beat the winner. That was arguably the horse’ best effort in his career and it hinted that there is more to come. The winner Misted Top Notch has franked the form and the front two pulled well clear of the field. King Johns Castle has been given a prep race over hurdles and given the likely improvement over this trip he looks potentially well handicapped. He has proven his class when running well in Graded races over in Ireland and although most of his Irish form has been in testing conditions he has form on good ground. My theory is he just needs testing ground over the shorter trips to slow down his rivals and over this trip the faster ground won’t inconvenience him.

MON MOME 10-11 ~ The Venetia Williams trained Mon Mome is another who loves a test of stamina as his excellent 2nd to Halcon Genelardais proves. He is a consistent sort who almost always seems to run his race and who doesn’t need soft ground despite some contradicting views. He is only 5lbs higher than when 2nd in the Welsh National last season but his form has been maintained by several good placed efforts in top handicaps. His run in the William Hill Trophy suggests he is losing some of his speed as he was badly outpaced before staying on particularly well late on. This could be the test the gelding needs now he is getting on. The yard is currently in fine fettle and he is still feasibly handicapped so looks primed for a bold effort.

CORNISH SETT 10-10 ~ Paul Nicholls trained son of Accordion who before his run in last seasons Racing Post Plate had looked ideally suited by 2½ miles and fast ground conditions. He ran a fine race in 2nd in conditions that shouldn’t have suited. He is weighted to reverse that form with Simon but in three runs over an extended 3 miles only his run in an average handicap at Cheltenham gives encouragement. He ran on from some way back to finish 2nd and although there is the suspicion that he was running past beaten horses it is an encouraging run. He has been given a break since the Welsh National, where he didn’t appear to get home in the conditions, and he has had a wind operation. That could bring around considerable improvement but given the horses overall form it will have to as he doesn’t look ideally suited by extreme distances.

NAUNTON BROOK 10-10 – The Nigel Twiston-Davies trained 9yo is a stayer through and through but when unable to lead he can prove disappointing. As he was in last years renewal of the Grand National when pulled up after the Canal turn on the second circuit. He has a lot to prove after that but he has been running well this season without being able to win and that’s the problem. He is thoroughly exposed and the handicapper has his card marked. He also has to bounce back from a poor effort in the Midlands National last time out so plenty of reasons to take him on.

TUMBLING DICE 10-10 – Doesn’t stay 3 miles so the Tom Taaffe gelding shouldn’t have enough stamina for an extra mile and a half. His form this season has been mostly over 2 miles where he has been at his best so he looks up against it over todays extreme trip.

BACKBEAT 10-9 – He was apparently ready for the knackers’ yard but was given one more chance at Sandown. Luckily for him he won and he won in convincing fashion suggesting he maybe finally able to fulfill his potential. He had been off the track for two years but he stayed on nicely to defy his big odds in taking fashion. He had previously been a good novice and had run well in a 3m handicap at Huntingdon so he had the form to win. He had a blow out over hurdles so he should be well primed and this trip may well bring out the best in him. He can clout the odd fence which is a concern as he has 30 odd to get around and they are some of the stiffest fences around but if he does take to the fences he could have more to offer.

COMPLY OR DIE 10-9 – Carried top weight to victory in the Eider over 4 miles and the way he won suggests that the extra 3 miles shouldn’t be any problem. The application of blinkers seems to have lit the horse up and he is back to the form he showed when starting favourite for the Grade 1 Sun Alliance three years ago. The only worries are that his Newcastle effort might have taken it out of him and that he won’t take to the fences. If neither are a problem then it is difficult to find an opponent who ticks as many boxes as he does and its Comply Or Die not Cloudy Lane they all have to beat.

IDLE TALK 10-9 – He screws his back when he jumps which means he isn’t much different from riding a bucking bronco. As a result he seems to have more letters than numbers in his form. It will be an awesome sight watching Brian Harding trying to stay on at Cananl Turn. To be fair though the horse has shown better form this year and the jockeys have been staying on. Stamina has to be a concern though as he didn’t appear to stay in the Scottish and Welsh Nationals. He also has 30 fences to jump and his backers will have buttocks clenched at each one if he manages to complete. Still if he does manage it, which will be impressive he doesn’t look to have the stamina to see out his effort.

KELAMI 10-9 – Brought down in 2004 at the first which must have been very frustrating but he was beaten fair and square in last season’s renewal. He bounced back to form last time out in the Racing Post Plate behind Gungadu but his jumping leaves something to desire and he has already proven he isn’t up to the challenge presented by the Grand National. However he is quite inconsistent so presuming he was on an off day last year and he is on a going day this year then he could surprise a few people. He has always run well in staying chases and the trip shouldn’t prove a problem. He looks well handicapped and he has his ground so he could prove a lively outsider.

MILAN DEUX MILLE 10-9 – Only a 6yo and he hasn’t been running well this season. Hard to envisage a scenario in which he’ll manage to win.

NADOVER 10-9 – He makes plenty of jumping errors and all his best efforts have been in testing conditions. He is 11lbs higher than when he last won a handicap but that was an average race at Chepstow over 2½ miles. All his best form has been over that trip so he is a questionable stayer and doesn’t look a horse who will particularly like the challenge set by the Grand National.

BLACK APALACHI 10-8 – He finished miles behind King Johns Castle at Leopardstown but the application of blinkers at Gowran Park brought around improvement in the 9yo. Today a visor is used for the first time but the conditions in the Thyestes are a lot different than in the National with an extra 1½ miles and faster ground. All the horses winning form has been in soft ground so todays conditions are far from ideal and he is racing on a career highest mark, 7lbs higher than he carried when running last time out. He has raced three times over an extended 3 miles and he has failed to get home in either race so he is easily passed over.

PHILSON RUN 10-8 – 4th in last years renewal but he was along way behind the principles at the finish. In fact he was made to look very slow even over 4½ miles so on good ground he would probably need three laps of the circuit to win. The Nick Williams 12yo really needs Earth Summit type ground and although he is sure to run his race and give his supporters a run for their money a distant place is the best they should hope for.

DUN DOIRE 10-7 – The handicap King Tony Martin sends over Dun Doire but he is exposed now and the bookies will be happy to lay one of his horses for a change. The 9yo and former winner of the William Hill Trophy hasn’t had a great time at Aintree having fallen and pulled up in two starts over the National fences. His form this season doesn’t give any encouragement and it’s hard to see him getting involved unless the first time blinkers spark him back to life.

ARDAGHEY 10-7 – He was running a very encouraging race in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham festival before falling 3 out. He was still travelling well and it’s not absurd to suggest he would have been involved at the finish. That suggests he might take well to this extreme test of stamina but his recent form is a concern. His only form of note this season came on his seasonal reappearance but he goes well fresh and he hasn’t repeated that performance in 5 subsequent starts this season. Pulled up at Cheltenham on his last start and he looks to have had enough this season.

CONCLUSION

Shortlist includes Hedgehunter, Simon, Butlers Cabin, Slim Pickings, Chelsea Harbour, Bewleys Berry, Joacci, King Johns Castle, Mon Mome, Backbeat, Comply Or Die and Kelami.

Kelami ran a fine race in the Racing Post Chase behind Gwanako last time out and has a fine record in staying chases. Not at Aintree however and his jumping leaves a lot to be desired. Butler’s Cabin has shown nothing this season to suggest he is capable of winning the toughest race of his career. Simon was travelling well before departing last year but he wasn’t overly impressive with his jumping prior to that and he isn’t certain to stay with his big weight. Chelsea Harbour needs to jump better and apart from winning a weak handicap his form isn’t very encouraging. Bewleys Berry goes well at the track and the fences and so could be a dangerous one to leave out but he doesn’t convenience me that he is made of such an extreme test of stamina. Mon Mome hasn’t been in the same form this season as he was when finishing 2nd in the Welsh National or 4th in the William Hill Trophy two years ago. Although he could improve he didn’t really encourage that he would in this years William Hill Trophy so although a big price for an in-form trainer he is reluctantly passed over. Hedgehunter is another who comes down slightly on the wrong side of the chop but he should run his race. He always goes well here over the National course but it might be more 2007 than 2005 and he definitely isn’t getting any younger. This also looks a stronger than average field which won’t help his cause.

Two at big prices that are of interest are Backbeat and Joaaci. The latter has been running without the headgear that he ran so well in over hurdles and the yard have done really well with their runners in blinkers (See Comply Or Die, Vodka Bleu, Very Wise, Our Vic). The former Backbeat had previously not jumped that well but coming back form a two year break he didn’t show any of that and he ran away to beat a decent field by 6 lengths. He gave the impression he will only improve for an extreme test of stamina and if his jumping can hold up then he should run a big race. Don’t forget he would have been a very good novice but for the errors and he has given hope when running at Sandown that his jumping has improved with time.

The Elite three though are King Johns Castle, Slim Pickings and Comply Or Die.

King Johns Castle is a fabulous jumper of a fence and should take to these fences. He also looks an obvious improver over the trip. Slim Pickings has been laid out for this race unlike last year and the way they front three pulled clear make it look very good form. He deserves his 7lbs rise in the weights and his prep race suggested he in just as good nick but he should even improve if this race has been his sole target. The main fancy Comply Or Die looks to have very solid chances. Since finishing 2nd in the 2005 Grade 1 Sun Alliance he hasn’t had an easy time but the application of blinkers have really woken a sleeping giant. The way he destroyed the Eider field off top weight was extremely impressive and so the trip should hold no fears. If he takes to these fences he’ll be very hard to beat as he is unpenalised for his impressive win at Newcastle.

1pt EACH WAY – BACKBEAT @ 100/1
1pt EACH WAY – KING JOHNS CASTLE @ 20/1
1pt EACH WAY – SLIM PICKINGS @ 12/1
2pt WIN – COMPLY OR DIE @ 11.5

RESULT

BACKBEAT Fell = -2pts
KING JOHNS CASTLE 2nd = +4pts
SLIM PICKINGS 4th = +2pts
COMPLY OR DIE 1st = +20pts