EPSOM

4:00 VODAFONE DERBY (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m4f

ALAN DEVONSHIRE 9-0 ~ Mark Tompkins son of Mtoto looked a decidedly average performer as a juvenile last season. The colts only victory came in a weak auction maiden race at Newcastle. His best effort came on his final start of the season when stepped up to a mile he finished 3rd in a Listed event at Pontefract. On his seasonal reappearance this year though he improved on anything he showed last year when running a massive race in the Group 3 Lingfield Derby Trial. He finished 4th but he ran better than the bare form suggests as he showed up well for a long way till trying in the final two furlongs. He looked to have benefitted from strengthening up over the winter and the step up in trip seemed right up his street. Against high class race fit rivals though he was always going to be at a distinct disadvantage but he still ran well in the circumstances. He is bred to be a middle distance colt so he is going to improve on anything he showed as a juvenile last season. However this is on a different planet to anything he has faced before and a respectable place in the middle of the pack looks the best connections can hope for.

ALESSANDRO VOLTA 9-0 ~ The son of Montjeu broke his maiden on his 3rd career start in the Listed Eyrefield Stakes, a race Aidan O'Brien has farmed in recent years. The combination of that comfortable win and stable jockey Johnny Murtagh resulted in the horse going off a short price favourite for the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes on his seasonal reappearance. However he ended up being well beaten but his saddle slipped so that run is best forgiven. He gained compensation when winning in the Group 3 Derby Trial Stakes at Lingfield but the manner of victory raises serious doubts. He hung left, then right, then left again and his high head carriage resulted in a wholly unsatisfactory conclusion. He also ran wide off the bend, which is similar to Tattenham Corner, so although one can never tell the horse looks sure not to handle the contours of Epsom. As a result he can’t be back however good he might potentially be.

BASHKIROV 9-0 ~ Of the five Ballydoyle runners David McCabes mount looks easily the rag. He has shown pieces of form in a number of maidens behind some useful sorts but he isn’t of the same class. He has looked very one paced so this step up in trip should suit him better but he is almost guaranteed to be outclassed, as his price suggests.

BOUGUEREAU 9-0 ~ Hails from the same yard as last years Derby winner Authorized but he isn’t in the same league as his former stable mate. Bouguereau was being aimed at the Italians Derby because connections suggested the colt wouldn’t be suited by Epsom. The horse does in fact line up after being well beaten in the Italian Derby so what has changed? More than likely connections are trying to make up for the disappointment of being thumped in the horses’ main target. Before his trip to the continent the horse had only just been denied by Unnefer at Newbury in a conditions stakes. The front two pulled clear of a decent field and Unnefer ran well behind Tajaaweed next time out in the Group 3 Dee Stakes. The form of that race shouldn’t be sniffed at and the way Bouguereau stayed on bitterly suggests the trip should suit despite the pedigree being far from convincing. However despite the colt is probably better than the odds suggest he doesn’t have the scope of many of his rivals and a place in the top half of the field seems likely but a place probably too much to ask.

CASUAL CONQUEST 9-0 ~ Not originally entered in the Derby and so the winner of the Group 2 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes had to be supplemented at a price of £75k. Rather embarrassing for Dermot Weld that he didn’t realise he had a horse with so much talent in his ranks until the colt bolted up in Irelands main Derby trial. Although it wasn’t the greatest renewal of the Derrinstown the 2nd Washington Irving is highly thought of at Ballydoyle and the 3rd Moiqen was a previous winner of the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes. On breeding he looks sure to get the trip being out of a French Derby winner and he didn’t look to be stopping over a mile and a quarter in the Derrinstown. On the negative side he is in-experience having only had two runs and it remains to be seen how he’ll deal with the preliminaries. You have to go back to 1996, when Shaamit won for William Haggis, to find a horse who won the Derby after only two previous career starts. Also during a recent work out after racing at Leopardstown he looked quite laboured when asked to go past Unwritten Rule but he could be a lazy worker which would explain why Dermot Weld didn’t realise he had a Derby horse in his ranks for so long. Although the visual performance he produced when winning the Derrinstown was tremendously impressive a 5 runner field in a slowly run race at Leopardstown is a world away from what he’ll experience at Epsom. He has to be at the head of peoples thoughts when deciding who to back but those lingering doubts are sure to put some people off at his price.

CURTAIN CALL 9-0 ~ With Jessica Harrington during the colts juvenile season last year where he ran produced some fine performances. He sandwiched New Approach and Henrythenavigator in the Group 2 Futurity Stakes and then proved that was no fluke by easily winning the Group 2 Beresford Stakes. He made a pleasing debut for Luca Cumani in a three runner race at Nottingham but although he won in impressive fashion he was entitled to do against his two substandard rivals. He’s a strong galloper and given there is plenty of stamina in his pedigree he looks sure to get the trip. However all the horses’ best form has come in small fields when there has been some cut in the ground. On good ground at Doncaster last season and in a big field he disappointed badly in the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy. So he may struggle with the hustle and bustle involved in a large Derby field and the ground appears to have gone against him. He looks more the sort of horse who will make up into a St Leger contender given he doesn’t seem sort of stamina and race conditions will probably be more to his likely. He looks sure to be running on at the finish but there are plenty of question marks hanging over his chances and winning may prove too much ask.

DOCTOR FREEMANTLE 9-0 ~ The Oaks showed with Lush Lashes and Chinese White that you need to stay the trip well to figure in the Epsom Classics. Doctor Fremantle won the Group 3 Chester Vase over 1½ miles so he is certain to stay the trip or so it seems but the race was run at a stop start gallop. Still he looks a strong galloper and is bred to stay so little doubt he’ll enjoy the trip. He is a nice moving colt and he showed at Chester he is a well balanced individual and he shouldn’t have a problem with the trip. However he was beaten in a handicap of 84 the run before and the proximity of All The Aces raises doubts about the form. Ryan Moore also has chosen to ride Tartan Bearer so there appears to be stronger contenders, possibly even from the same stable.

FROZEN FIRE 9-0 ~ Showed definite signs of temperament when finishing 2nd in the Group 2 Dante Stakes at York behind Tartan Bearer. Considering his sire is Montjeu and he is out of a Woodman mare that is hardly surprising. He looked sure to go past Tartan Bearer at one point but with his awkward head carriage his effort flattened out. He sweated up badly as well before the race and with Twice Over running no sort of race the Dante this year may not be the important trial it traditionally is. There is definitely ability there but he has his quirks and Johnny Murtagh prefers King Of Rome.

KANDAHAR RUN 9-0 ~ Henry Cecils contender hasn’t looked a 1½ mile horse and his breeding is more miler than middle distance colt. He was entitled to win a weak Listed race last time and he hasn’t encountered horses’ races of this class in his career to date. He looks sure to struggle but it would be nice to see him prove that way off and give him trainer another win in an Epsom Classic.

KING OF ROME 9-0 ~ Johnny Murtagh produced a shock when he picked King Of Rome as his Derby mount but he will hope he has more luck than he had in the Oaks. It probably highlights the yards lack of a star at middle distances. The colts reappearance can be forgiven as he was used as a pacemaker but that probably hints that this horse isn’t anything special. So from pacemaker to stable first string he must have moved up fairly quickly in the peaking order. However after being beaten by Alessandro Volta at Lingfield last time it’s hard to think he’ll be able to beat the principles.

MAIDSTONE MIXTURE 9-0 ~ The colts wealthy owner wants the experience of being an owner in the top race in both codes but he isn’t willing to pay for the privilege. This winner of a Strasbourg hurdle race is a complete no hoper and his jockey would be well advised to make sure the horse doesn’t get in the way.

NEW APPROACH 9-0 ~ Second in two Classics already this season and a multiple Group 1 winner. Jim Bolgers colt is the highest rated in the field and he has looked since day one that he’ll prove to be a middle distance horse as a 3yo. His preparation has been somewhat disrupted, possibly, due to the trainers indecision. That seems the only negative though as an experienced horse he should have no issues with the rough and tumble of a big Derby field. If he can get to the start without any problems then it will be all systems go for the Champion 2yo to show what he’s been waiting all his life to prove.

RIO DE LA PLATA 9-0 ~ Had to give best to New Approach a number of times as a juvenile but returned this season in the French 2000 Guineas. He saw out the trip well enough on his first attempt at a mile but the extra half a mile in the Derby a major doubt. He isn’t bred to be a mile and a half horse and he has looked more of a speedy miler than a middle distance horse. His reappearance didn’t suggest he had improved since his 2yo campaign but he’ll have to, especially over a trip that looks to stretch him to the limit. However he should improve for his run at Longchamp and he has the class to run a massive race but the horses’ ability to see out the trip is a bit of a gamble, although that is factored into his price.

RIVER PROUD 9-0 ~ Pedigree is all about a mile and his sire Proud Citizen failed to see out 1½ miles when he was racing. Even a mile looked to stretch River Proud before he ran so well in the French 2000 Guineas, so another half a mile is asking a bit much. In the French 2000 Guineas he played up going into the stalls and broke the stall so had to be put into the car park draw. He was dropped in last before rattling home late on to run a really eyecatching race. Paul Coles colt improved a lot on his reappearance in the Group 3 Craven and he really seemed to enjoy running past horses. He could well make up into a fine miler, possibly a mile and quarter horse. However this trip and track aren’t likely to suit and connections might have made a hasty decision to supplement the colt after his unlucky 3rd in the French 2000 Guineas.

TAJAWEED 9-0 ~ Stepped up markedly on his juvenile form when winning the Group 3 Dee Stakes at Chester. He tracked the leaders and when he got his split up the inside he showed a good turn of foot to hall back Unnefer. Although the mile pedigree on the dams side raises questions about the horses’ ability to stay he was running on well at Chester and he could well have no problems with the extra furlong and a half. He has already gained experience of running in front of large crowds and he shouldn’t have any issues with the preliminaries. He’ll need to improve to win but he has the scope and he is an interesting runner for his top connections.

TARTAN BEARER 9-0 ~ Winner of the main Derby trial, the Group 2 Dante Stakes ran at York last month. However with the odds on favourite Twice Over scoping badly and having plenty of excuses it appears he didn’t run his race. That undoubtedly devalues the form of the race and with the seemingly unfancied Frozen Fire also battling out the finish question marks have to be raised regarding the form. If Tartan Bearer was expected to make up into a Derby horse why did he drift all day and go off at 10/1? Not hard to pick holes in the form if Twice Over is taken out of the race and he will have to improve again to win. Although his trainer Sir Michael Stoute is a dab hand at improving horses so despite question marks over the best piece of form he has on offer he has to be respected.

WASHINGTON IRVING 9-0 ~ Something of a Ballydoyle hype horse and he has started favourite on each of his three starts so far, but has been a beaten favourite each time. He was well and truly thumped out of sight by Casual Conquest last time in the Group 2 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes and the sort of improvement he has to show to reverse the form is probably something even his expert handler might find impossible. He looks well down the Ballydoyle pecking order and no reason to think he’ll be breaking his maiden this afternoon.

CONCLUSION

Normally it isn’t wise to rule out Ballydoyle but they look to have one of the worst hands they’ve had in a Classic for a while. Sir Michael Stoute has a number of runners and they look hard to split but preference is for Tajaweed. I don’t think he could won more comfortably than he did at Chester considering the ride he was given and he looks sure to enjoy the trip while also possessing a telling turn of foot.
The two principles in the market are Casual Conquest and New Approach. The latter is the class act in the field and has looked all over a middle distance horse. However if he is feeling the effects of two tough races in the English and Irish 2000 Guineas then Casual Conquest looks most likely colt to benefit. However this is a whole different ball game to what he has faced before and he could well lose the race due to inexperience. At his price it is a big concern in such a hectic race so he is passed over reluctantly. So the baton passes back to Jim Bolgers colt and he may finally be on the road to what has looked his destiny for months.

1pt WIN – NEW APPROACH @ 11/2

RESULT

NEW APPROACH 1st = +5.5pts