AINTREE

2:35 TOTESPORT BOWL CHASE GRADE 2 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m1f

EXOTIC DANCER 11-10 ~ Had a setback pre-Cheltenham and he ran a disappointing race to finish a well beaten 5th. Wouldn’t want to be backing him after that effort and he has ground to find with Our Vic on the form of this seasons King George. Plenty to prove at present and a watching brief is advised until the horse shows some of his old zest.

KAUTO STAR 11-10 ~ Had his cloak of invincibility removed by the mighty Denman in the Gold Cup and connections come to Aintree in order to retain the horses’ title in the Order Of Merit. The proximity of Neptune Collonges does raise questions regarding how the horse performed and although the trainer has stated Kauto Star ran one of his best races in this years Gold Cup Neptune Collonges shouldn't really have been able to finish so close. Although Ruby Walsh probably gave Denman too much rope he looked a little laboured when trying to chase the eventual winner. I’d worry that the horse has had a hard race and may not be able to reproduce his best form here at Aintree. However there is no getting away from the fact that he probably won’t have to be at his best in this company and he has already thrashed most of these earlier in the season in the King George.

MONET’S GARDEN 11-10 ~ Monet’s Garden beat Kauto Star in the Grade 2 Old Roan Chase at Aintree earlier on in the season but a repeat performance looks highly unlikely. It was run over the horse’ favoured trip of 2½ miles and it was a handicap so Kauto Star was conceding a stone to the Nicky Richards grey. On level weights and over 3 miles he looks extremely vulnerable and is unlikely to confirm the placings.. Hope comes in the shape of the horse’ course record, 3 wins from 4 runs but this is easily the toughest task he’s faced at the Liverpool track.

OUR VIC 11-10 ~ The blinkers worked a treat when Our Vic ran away with the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham festival. He won with a bit in hand and that race shouldn’t have taken too much out of the David Pipe gelding. He proved his ability to stay 3 miles on a flat track like Newbury but he doesn’t get the extended 3 miles at Cheltenham. He should be closer to the King George/Ryanair form rather than the Letheby And Christopher Chase where he didn’t get home but still beat Neptune Collonges by 5 lengths. He could get an easy lead in the small field and if allowed to stride on he could well go close.

GUNGADU 11-6 ~ An interesting contender as this progressive 8yo is on the upgrade having reached a rating that means his options in handicaps are limited. The natural progression is into these graded races but he is by no means without a chance despite being the rag in the field. He should be able to beat a couple of the better fancied horses who look stagnant and vulnerable to any likely improvers. Gungadu will have to improve again to figure but he is entitled to and his fine jumping will mean he won’t lose too much ground over the fences.

CONCLUSION

Kauto Star is without doubt the one they all have to beat and if anywhere near the form he showed in the King George then there will be only one winner. However of the rest Our Vic looks the clear 2nd best on recent form and he even beat Gold Cup 3rd Neptune Collonges by 5 lengths in the Letheby And Christopher Chase. That rival has improved but by how much? He won a nothing race at Warwick and then finished a short head behind Kauto Star in the Gold Cup with many horses in behind running below form (Exotic Dancer, Knowhere) and Halcon Genelardais who was pulled up last year finishing 4th. I’m not fully convinced that Kauto Star ran up to the form he showed when winning the King George and it is probably a result of Denman putting him under extreme pressure and the former champion cracked as a result. Without the new star in the line up Kauto Star is likely to have an easier time of it and he’ll be able to bounce back to his sublime best. However at the same time he had a rare hard race in the Gold Cup and it could have left its mark on the horse so it has to be a concern. He will most likely win again but I seriously doubt whether it will be by a convincing 11 lengths as it was at Kempton on Boxing Day. Gungadu the stable companion of Kauto Star may also surprise a few people and he is not one to ignore lightly. He maybe able to take advantage of a tiring Monet’s Garden over the trip and a Exotic Dancer who has serious questions to answer after his weak effort in the Gold Cup.

1pt STRAIGHT FORECAST – 1st KAUTO STAR 2nd OUR VIC

RESULT

KAUTO STAR 2nd OUR VIC 1st = -1pt