ASCOT

3:45 GOLD CUP (GROUP 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f

BADDAM 9-2 ~ Non-runner

DIAMOND QUEST 9-2 ~ Group 1 winner in South Africa over 2 miles but since leaving his homeland two years ago he has been seen racing over 1m-1½miles over in Dubai. In handicap company the horse has been running well but both forays into Group class have resulted in comfortable defeats (including here in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes last year). The return to extreme staying distances might bring around some improvement but even for his Group 1 win in South Africa he was receiving piles of weight. Against the cream of the staying division he looks likely to struggle of level weights and he is passed over.

FINALMENTE 9-2 ~ Much improved last season and he ran a massive race in the Gold Cup last year when finishing 4th behind Yeats. He has to show significant improvement to seriously challenge in today’s race but he also finished a good 3rd in the Group 2 Goodwood Cup so he clearly thrives in big field staying races. On his reappearance at Sandown in the Group 2 Henry II Stakes he put up a fine performance when beating a decent field albeit as a result of the horse getting his own way out in front. He is said to have improved over the winter for a different training regime and as the race lacks another pace angle he could get the run of the race. He’ll probably be found wanting for class at the finish but he could sneak a place at a price.

GEORDIELAND 9-2 ~ Showed more resolution last time at York than he has previously shown in his entire career in the UK. However once he got to Royal and Regal he idled and still tried to throw it away as the runner-up rallied. He only has 1½ lengths to find on Yeats after finishing 2nd in the Gold Cup last season and he looks to have improved over the winter judging by his reappearance. Shane Kelly gave the horse a great ride last time and he could strike up a profitable partnership with the big grey gelding. This is a much better race though than the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup but expect him to be bang there at the finish. Whether he’ll try to find one too good is another matter but he is a serious player today.

LE MIRACLE 9-2 ~ German raider who only seems to get going after 2miles and all his best form has been over today’s trip. He was 3rd in this race last year before reversing the form with Yeats in the Prix du Cadran after benefitted from a superb tactical ride. It was probably a case of a below form Yeats rather than an improved effort from Le Miracle but it shows how dangerous he can be and with a steady pace likely he could benefit as he likes to race prominently. This season he ran a good race on his reappearance before being thrashed by Coastal Path last time. His trainer says the horse had a problem which he is over so expect the 7yo gelding to bounce back to form. Another placed effort looks harder with Coastal Path in the field but if one of the first three in the betting disappoint he looks one of more likely ones to capitalise.

THUNDERING STAR 9-2 ~ Won the same Group 1 over 2miles in South Africa that Diamond Quest won two years ago. However Mike De Kock’s horse carried some 16lbs more so you would expect he would have too much for his fellow expat on level weights. His effort in France was for another trainer but back with Mike De Kock he was forced to carry a Group 1 penalty in the Group 2 Henry II Stakes at Sandown. It was an encouraging enough effort and expect him to improve for it. The return to a quicker surface should also suit but the step up in trip is a big unknown, especially having not seen him run in South Africa so a place looks the only realistic aim.

YEATS 9-2 ~ Going for the hat-trick to emulate the great Sagaro but Yeats hasn’t looked in great nick since his win in the Irish St Leger last year. He was beaten by Le Miracle over in France on his final run of the season and then on his reappearance he had to battle to beat the likes of Red Moloney, Alfie Flits and Nick’s Nikita. He has excuses for both efforts though as the ground wouldn’t have suited in France and he was as fat as a pig on his reappearance at the Curragh. However he is a very short price and he isn’t getting any younger so he might struggle to match the level of form he showed last season. An improving Geordieland and a challenger to his throne from France suggest than this will be a lot harder that last years race so he is taken on at the price.

COASTAL PATH 9-0 ~ Unbeaten after six starts and four of those have come in Group company, including last time at Longchamp when destroying a good trio of rivals. His sire Halling does raise doubts about his suitability for the trip but he is a half-brother to Reefscape, who finished second in this race two years ago. Both trained by Andre Fabre Reefscape was also out of a sire that suggested the trip was too far but he got the trip well enough. The dam is the common denominator and given how well he stays on over 2miles the trip shouldn’t be a problem. He has yet to race on ground this fast but his trainer has stated he appreciates quick ground better than soft so that won’t be a concern. The colt looks a serious contender and could take Yeats crown; if he does he could have it for a considerable amount of time.

REGAL FLUSH 9-0 ~ Finished 4th in the Group 1 St Leger last season after progressing from handicaps for Sir Michael Stoute. Joined Godolphin over the winter and in two starts for his new connections he has looked laboured in a couple of Listed events. This is a massive step up in trip and class so he is hard to fancy.

SAGARA 9-0 ~ 3rd in last season’s Arc for Jonathan Pease and he stayed on well behind Dylan Thomas and Youmzain suggesting a step up in trip might suit. However today’s extra mile is a bit extreme and he appears to have been ruined by Godolphin anyway. He has been gelded after last season and on his reappearance at Goodwood he finished last in a lifeless performance. As a result he can’t be backed as he’ll need to show a complete turn around and even if by some miracle that happens the trip looks sure to stretch his stamina.

ALLEGRETTO 8-13 ~ Well beaten in this race last year but she pulled too hard at the beginning of the race and as a result failed to stay the trip. The visor was used as an excuse and it seemed a valid one after her victory in the Group 2 Goodwood Cup over 2miles. She stayed on well and a step back up in trip seemed worth a try but at the St Leger meeting she again failed to stay further than 2miles in the Group 2 Doncaster Cup over 2m2f. Next time out in France she again won over 2miles in the Group 1 Prix Royal-Oak so she will be of interest when stepped back down in trip. Her reappearance effort at Sandown can be forgiven as the ground wouldn’t have suited and expect a bold show for 2miles before again just failing to stay.

CONCLUSION

I’m willing to take on Yeats at the price and the French raider Coastal Path is the obvious choice. There is a doubt about the trip and this will be different to anything he has faced previously but he just oozes class. All the concerns have a perfectly acceptable counter argument as he looks sure to appreciate the trip given how he runs and his half-brother Reefscape was a winner over today’s trip. His trainer rates him as a better horse than his half-brother and he looks like he could have too much for Yeats. Geordieland could turn out to be the main challenger but his attitude always means he is likely to finish 2nd more times than he wins.

2pt WIN – COASTAL PATH @ 2/1
0.5pt REVERSE FORECAST – COASTAL PATH and GEORDIELAND

RESULT

COASTAL PATH 3rd = -2pt
GEORDIELAND 2nd = -1pt