AINTREE

3:45 JOHN SMITH'S TOPHAM CHASE (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (5yo+) 2m5½f

NATAL 11-12 ~ Raised 6lbs higher than when last seen winning an average handicap at Newbury. He looks plenty high enough in the handicap for a competitive race such as this and he has no experience of these National fences.

ROMAN ARK 11-12 ~ The softer the ground the better for this 10yo, so todays conditions are unlikely to allow him to post a career best effort. Although he has to considering he is running of a mark 7lbs higher than his last winning mark. He looks held by the handicapper although his 2nd last time out looks better after the performances of Marcel and Magic Sky but this is far tougher.

TOO FORWARD 11-10 ~ Back to a winning mark but the veteran isn’t getting any younger at 12. He ran a fine race in a Cheltenham handicap on New Years Day and that gives him place claims after not seeing out the extended 3 miles last time out. However that is the best connections can probably hope for in this company.

GWANAKO 11-8 ~ His debut at Kempton was no more than a schooling run and he showed improve form in the Racing Post Plate to finish 2nd. He couldn’t live with the winner Mister McGoldrick but deserves plenty of credit as apart from the winner he was clear 2nd best. He has only been raised 4lbs for that effort but there must be more to come from this 5yo whose having only his third run over fences. He has to enter calculations despite his in-experience.

KENZO III 11-7 ~ Very lightly raced 10yo who has only had 8 career starts so clearly a tricky customer to train. He won an average handicap last time out but he has been hit with a 10lbs penalty from the handicapper which is clearly going to make life very tough in this competitive heat.

MACS FLAMINGO 11-6 ~ Won a decent handicap at Tralee in September but he is 13lbs higher after that effort. He needs to improve again off a mark of 139 if he is to figure and although he has winning form on good ground he prefers soft conditions. He should be well primed for this race after his 4th in a Grade 3 Chase at Navan but with the ground against him it is a tough task to defy his new handicap mark.

CROZAN 11-6 ~ 1st time visor is tried this time as connections try to find something that will help this horse find its form. The first time blinkers seemed to give him a spark in the Ryanair Chase last season so chances if the visor does the same. He has been dropping down the handicap and on a going day he is very good. With just depends whether that will be today.

PALARSHAN 11-5 ~ Probably a better horse fresh but he has been holding his form well enough since his 2nd in the Paddy Power Chase. However the handicapper seems to have his card marked and he has plenty to find with Gwanako on his Racing Post Plate effort.

IN THE HIGH GRASS 11-4 ~ He won a weak Listed race last time out at Cork and the close second He’s On His Way didn’t do anything to suggest otherwise in the Irish National. He finished 3rd behind Royal County Star in a handicap at Punchestown last season but he isn’t in the same form this term and he is running on a career high mark. He needs to improve to figure but there is little to encourage punters that he is capable of doing.

BLACK HILLS 11-4 ~ He didn’t stay 3 miles behind Gungadu and has plenty to find with Gwanako on the form of the Racing Post Plate. However he is a much better horse going right handed so if this was at Kempton he would be in with a great chance, it isn’t so he isn’t.

NACARAT 11-3 ~ Ex-french horse Nacarat made an excellent winning start for his new connections at Wincanton. He couldn’t follow that up at Cheltenham and his jumping was a concern as the horse tired. Could have been the bounce factor that effected him at Cheltenham but he returned to form last time out at Newbury. He was the only horse to make a race of it with Natal and he has a 7lbs pull with the top weight. He is lightly raced and open to plenty of improvement so not without a chance.

ERIC’S CHARM 11-1 ~ The Oliver Sherwood 10yo has been campaigned over 3+ miles recently so he may struggle to go the pace dropped down to 2½ miles. He has form over the trip when he was younger but he might have lost his speed now he is getting older. He is also better going right handed and doesn’t look particularly well handicapped so he will need to improve on all known form to figure.

MIGHTY MATTERS 11-1 ~ Another horse that has shown all his best form going right handed and he has been raised 9lbs by the handicapper for his Sandown win. He was well held in the Racing Post Plate where he was running before the handicapper could penalise him for that Sandown effort. He has to jump a lot better than he did at Cheltenham and he has to improve if he is to trouble the principles.

TOMMY SPAR 11-0 ~ Last of the finishers in the Becher Chase earlier in the season and he hasn’t seen a racecourse since. He’ll probably need the run after his break as he hasn’t shown in his career that he goes well fresh. The drop in trip from the Becher may help but his only form of note was a win in an average Market Rasen handicap. He should struggle to reverse form with Pak Jack and is up against it in this competitive event.

WHICH POCKET 10-13 ~ Fell heavily on his only previous attempt over the Grand National fences but he has been running consistently in a number of Cls3 handicaps since. That isn’t overly impressive form and he has been raised 7lbs for winning one of those average events last time out. There is little to get excited about his profile and he is passed over.

YOU’RE SPECIAL 10-13 ~ Winner of the Kim Muir at the festival two years ago but after falling when trying to follow up in the Betfred Gold Cup Chase at Sandown he had two years out. On his reappearance at Newcastle he was pulled up but his trainer very rarely tries to get one ready after a break and it isn’t out of the question to suspect he could bounce back to the form he showed in the Kim Muir. That’s because his trainer is a master at springing surprises in these big handicaps. So despite being 7lbs higher than when winning an ultra competitive Cheltenham festival handicap he is an interesting outsider and he has good form over 2½ miles so the trip shouldn’t inconvenience him.

IRISH RAPTOR 10-12 ~ Fancied in some quarters for the Grand National but the horse seems to struggle in big fields and things haven’t gone to plan. He was well beaten in the Becher Chase earlier in this season and he was 7th in this race last year. This is his first time back over 2m5f and as he has been campaigned in staying chases so very little to get excited about.

TIME TO SELL 10-12 ~ Not won on ground faster than soft and 9yo has been very heavily campaigned so he is well exposed. He is 15lbs higher than his highest career winning mark but that was with conditions that suit. On this faster than ideal ground he has little chance of making his mark.

BOTHAR NA 10-12 ~ He hasn’t won since winning the Kerry National two years ago and he was a well beaten 6th in that race on his last run. He clearly isn’t in great form and Ruby Walsh didn’t really have a difficult decision to make when choosing Gwanako. He was pulled up in last seasons Grand National on his only previous attempt on the course so the drop in trip might suit but it is unlikely to make much difference.

OODACHEE 10-12 ~ Finds precious little off the bridle and idles once he hits the front. The latter has proven to be less of a problem recently as the horse hasn’t been able to get into such a position. He was pulled up in the Irish National where he showed no encouragement that he is worth chancing today.

DREUX 10-12 ~ Seemed to improve at Cheltenham when stepped up to 4 miles in the National Hunt Chase but that was a hard race and must have taken the edge off him. This step back down in trip isn’t likely to suit as well as he was well beaten at Haydock. His jumping also leaves something to de desired at times and these fences are the ultimate test.

NICE TRY 10-11 ~ The Venetia Williams 9yo has some progressive form towards the end of last season but hasn’t really gone on this season. The gelding has been slowly dropping down the handicap and all his form last season was at the end of the season so chances hinge on the horse being a better animal in the spring. If he is he isn’t without a chance if reproducing his Bangor performance and going very close today.

PAK JACK 10-11 ~ Fine record over the National fences 3,2,3 so he can be confidently backed that he will at least complete the course. He was 3rd behind Mr Pointment and Bewleys Berry in the Becher but the drop in trip in today’s Topham should mean he can improve on the bare form of that effort. He ran a fine race in the Foxhunters over course and distance at last years meeting and on level weights he finished a close 2nd behind the 130 rated Scots Grey. As a result he looks fairly treated on his mark of 130 in this handicap. Only concern is that the horse can be worried out of it in a battle and each way maybe the safest option.

DUNBRODY MIILAR 10-10 ~ The Peter Bowen gelding had a fine record similar to that of Pak Jack over the National fences before he fell in this years Becher Chase. His subsequent disappointments can be put down to the shocking form of the yard since the New Year but the fact he took a crashing fall when beaten last time out is a concern. However if that fall that hasn’t left his mark and he jumps like he did when winning the Topham last year then he warrants plenty of respect. He was 17lbs out of the handicap when winning last years renewal of this race so he is running off an identical mark in the handicap. He must enter calculations despite his recent disappointments.

LANKAWI 10-8 ~ Very progressive novice last season, ran an excellent race to finish 2nd in a 3m handicap chase on the Mildmay course at last years Aintree festival. However after a couple of encouraging efforts he has been well beaten in three races since the New Year including last week. The form of the yard could be a reason for his decline but his run at Bangor doesn’t hold out much hope he can turned it around.

THEATRE KNIGHT 10-6 ~ 2nd behind Dunbrody Millar in last seasons renewal of the Topham, when like the winner he was some 20lbs out of the handicap. He is 4lbs better off today with the winner but he was beaten 6 lengths so not sure to reverse the form if both run up to their best form. However Dunbrody Millar has bigger questions to answer regarding his current form than Theatre Knight and he ran an encouraging 4th in the Grand Sefton earlier this season. However he hasn’t had a run in 2008 and he ran in the Grand Sefton as if he would be better for a run. If the Howard Johnson horse is at the peak of his game though he could go very close as he has taken well to these fences with a record that reads 3,2,4.

AZULEJO 10-6 ~ Shown nothing in 4 starts for new connections and has little chance.

I HEAR THUNDER 10-4 ~ Won the Grand Sefton last season but when next seen out in the Becher he didn’t perform with the same zest and eventually unseated. He has shown nothing since but has been dropping in the handicap as a result. However he hasn’t hinted that he would be capable of taking advantage of that drop in the ratings but a return to these fences might rejuvenate the 10yo.

MARKED MAN 10-3 ~ Consistent sort but as a result he holds no secrets from the handicapper and although likely to run his race he should be good enough to win at this stage in his career.

CONCLUSION

Shortlist includes Too Forward, Gwanako, Crozan, Nacarat, You’re Special, Nice Try, Pak Jack, Dunbrody Millar, Theatre Knight and I Hear Thunder.

With the idiosyncratic nature of the race course form can prove very important. Those who have good course form include Pak Jack. Dunbrody Millar, Theatre Knight and I Hear Thunder.

It’s a while since I Hear Thunder won the Grand Sefton and he has shown basically nothing since so despite the drop in the handicap he can’t be backed with any confidence. Dunbrody Millar is another who after winning over the course and has shown nothing since so his chances are dependant on the return to the course sparking him back into life. However he fell when last seen here in the Becher and the form of the yard doesn’t encourage that he can follow up in the race he won last season. Theatre Knight may be able to reverse Topham form with Dunbrody Millar but he ran slightly flat in the Grand Sefton at the beginning of the season and he had previously had a good record fresh. He was well beaten in that race over course and distance which has to be a concern in this more competitive race. Pak Jak though looks to be the best option of those who have course form but that is reflected in his price. He has proven he is also more than capable away from the National fences at Cheltenham and Stratford. He has run well fresh before so that isn’t an issue so back to a more suitable trip after his Becher 3rd he should run a big race and looks an each way bet to nothing.

So those tackling the National course for the first time are Too Forward, Gwanako, Crozan, Nacarat, You’re Special and Nice Try

Too Forward had fine form last season but is getting on now so probably a place is the best he can hope for. Crozan may be dangerous if his visor sparks him into life but his jumping will be put under pressure over these fences and his form has been regressive this season. Nacarat is lightly raced in this company so could improve but he still has lots to prove and isn’t a great price. Also if he jumps like he did at Cheltenham then he will find a lot of trouble over these fences. Nice Try hasn’t shown a lot this season but hope comes with the belief that the horse improves during spring but his jumping isn’t great and he maybe found out.
The two of particular interest are Gwanako and You’re Special. The Paul Nicholls 5yo Gwanako ran a fine race in the Racing Post Plate and has any amount of improvement but is very inexperienced. That didn’t stop Cyfor Malta in 1998 so it may not stop Gwanako but he is a short price to do so after a hard race at Cheltenham. The Ferdy Murphy trained You’re Special has the class to win a race like this after his fine win in the Kim Muir. Treatment to his breathing seemed to bring the horse to life and despite being pulled up on his seasonal reappearance at Newcastle his shrewd trainer should have him right for today.

1pt EACH WAY - PAK JACK @ 9/1
1pt EACH WAY - YOU’RE SPECIAL @ 40/1

RESULT

PAK JACK Fell = -2pts
YOU’RE SPECIAL Pulled Up = -2pts